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View the full Report [PDF 78mb]

 * Home
 * About
 * What is a Tipping Point?
 * Tipping Points Conference
 * Resources
 * Contact

Toggle navigation
 * Home
 * About
 * What is a Tipping Point?
 * Tipping Points Conference
 * Resources
 * Contact
 * Summary Report
   * Narrative summary
   * Infographic
   * Key messages
   * Key recommendations
   * Section 1: Earth system tipping points
   * Section 2: Tipping point impacts
   * Section 3: Governance of Earth system tipping points
   * Section 4: Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
 * Introduction
   * Foreword
   * Introduction
   * Approach
   * Key concepts
   * References
 * Summary Report
   * * 
     * * Summary
         
         Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest
         threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our
         planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our
         societies.
         
         In the Summary Report:
         
         • Narrative summary
         • Global tipping points infographic
         • Key messages
         • Key Recommendations
         
         Executive summary
         • Section 1
         • Section 2
         • Section 3
         • Section 4
     * * Downloads
         
         Summary
         Report
         
         
     * *  
         
         Full
         Report
         
         
     * *  
         
         Key
         Messages
         
         
     * *  
         
         Key
         Recommendations
         
         
     * *  
         
         Global tipping points
         Infographic
         
         
 * Introduction
   * * 
     * * Why we need to talk about tipping points
         
         This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth
         system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that
         trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.
         
         In this section:
         
         • Foreword
         • Introduction
         • Key Concepts
         • Approach
         • References
         
         Introduction: Download PDF [1.8mb]
 * Section 1
   * * * 1: Earth System Tipping Points
         
         Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed
         across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and
         circulation of the oceans and atmosphere. We then consider the
         interactions and potential cascades of Earth system tipping points,
         followed by an assessment of early warning signals for Earth system
         tipping points.
         
         • Section Summary
         • Key messages
         • Recommendations
         
         Section 1: Download PDF [45mb]
     * *  * 1.1 Introduction
          * 1.2 Tipping points in the cryosphere
            * 1.2.1 Introduction
            * 1.2.2 Current state of knowledge on cryosphere tipping points
              * 1.2.2.1 Ice sheets
              * 1.2.2.2 Sea ice
              * 1.2.2.3 Glaciers
              * 1.2.2.4 Permafrost
            * 1.2.3 Final remarks
          * 1.3 Tipping points in the biosphere
            * 1.3.1 Introduction
            * 1.3.2 Current state of knowledge on tipping points in the
              biosphere
              * 1.3.2.1 Tropical forests
              * 1.3.2.2 Boreal forests & tundra
              * 1.3.2.3 Temperate forests
              * 1.3.2.4 Savannas & grasslands
              * 1.3.2.5 Drylands
              * 1.3.2.6 Freshwater ecosystems
              * 1.3.2.7 Coastal ecosystems
              * 1.3.2.8 Marine ecosystems & environment
            * 1.3.3 Final remarks
          * 1.4 Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
            * 1.4.1 Introduction
            * 1.4.2 Current state of knowledge on ocean and atmosphere
              circulation tipping points
              * 1.4.2.1 Atlantic circulation
              * 1.4.2.2 Southern Ocean circulation
              * 1.4.2.3 Monsoons
              * 1.4.2.4 Tropical clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
              * 1.4.2.5 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
              * 1.4.2.6 Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics
          * 1.5 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades
            * 1.5.1 Introduction and definition
            * 1.5.2 Interactions between climate tipping systems and further
              nonlinear climate components
              * 1.5.2.1 Interactions across scales in space and time
              * 1.5.2.2 Interactions between ice sheets and AMOC
              * 1.5.2.3 Arctic sea ice interactions
              * 1.5.2.4 Effects of AMOC changes on the Amazon rainforest
              * 1.5.2.5 Interactions between ENSO and tipping systems
              * 1.5.2.6 Effects of permafrost thaw on the global hydrological
                cycle
            * 1.5.3 Archetypal examples of interactions between tipping systems
              from a palaeoclimatic perspective
              * 1.5.3.1 Interactions in the distant past: the Eocene-Oligocene
                Transition
              * 1.5.3.2 Interactions during and since the last glacial period
            * 1.5.4 Interactions between tipping systems and planetary-scale
              cascades
            * 1.5.5 Final remarks
          * 1.6 Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points
            * 1.6.1 Theory and methods of early warning signals
              * 1.6.1.1 Theory of critical slowing down
              * 1.6.1.2 Temporal methods
              * 1.6.1.3 Spatial methods
              * 1.6.1.4 Network methods
              * 1.6.1.5 Model methods
              * 1.6.1.6 Limitations
            * 1.6.2 Case studies of empirically measured EWS
              * 1.6.2.1 Cryosphere: Ice sheets and sea ice
              * 1.6.2.2 Biosphere: Amazon rainforest dieback
              * 1.6.2.3 Ocean: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
                (AMOC)
            * 1.6.3 Recommendations and looking ahead
              * 1.6.3.1 Increasing data availability
              * 1.6.3.2 Models and EWS of tipping points
              * 1.6.3.3 Applications of AI for predicting tipping points
            * 1.6.4 Final Remarks
          * 1.7 Earth system tipping points – synthesis
            * 1.7.1 Key messages
            * 1.7.2 Recommendations
          * References
 * 1. Earth System Tipping Points
   * 1.1 Introduction
   * 1.2 Tipping points in the cryosphere
     * 1.2.1 Introduction
     * 1.2.2 Current state of knowledge on cryosphere tipping points
       * 1.2.2.1 Ice sheets
       * 1.2.2.2 Sea ice
       * 1.2.2.3 Glaciers
       * 1.2.2.4 Permafrost
       * 1.2.3 Final remarks
   * 1.3 Tipping points in the biosphere
     * 1.3.1 Introduction
     * 1.3.2 Current state of knowledge on tipping points in the biosphere
       * 1.3.2.1 Tropical forests
       * 1.3.2.2 Boreal forests & tundra
       * 1.3.2.3 Temperate forests
       * 1.3.2.4 Savannas & grasslands
       * 1.3.2.5 Drylands
       * 1.3.2.6 Freshwater ecosystems
       * 1.3.2.7 Coastal ecosystems
       * 1.3.2.8 Marine ecosystems & environment
     * 1.3.3 Final remarks
   * 1.4 Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
     * 1.4.1 Introduction
     * 1.4.2 Current state of knowledge on ocean and atmosphere circulation
       tipping points
       * 1.4.2.1 Atlantic circulation
       * 1.4.2.2 Southern Ocean circulation
       * 1.4.2.3 Monsoons
       * 1.4.2.4 Tropical clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
       * 1.4.2.5 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
       * 1.4.2.6 Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics
   * 1.5 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades
     * 1.5.1 Introduction and definition
     * 1.5.2 Interactions between climate tipping systems and further nonlinear
       climate components
       * 1.5.2.1 Interactions across scales in space and time
       * 1.5.2.2 Interactions between ice sheets and AMOC
       * 1.5.2.3 Arctic sea ice interactions
       * 1.5.2.4 Effects of AMOC changes on the Amazon rainforest
       * 1.5.2.5 Interactions between ENSO and tipping systems
       * 1.5.2.6 Effects of permafrost thaw on the global hydrological cycle
     * 1.5.3 Archetypal examples of interactions between tipping systems from a
       palaeoclimatic perspective
       * 1.5.3.1 Interactions in the distant past: the Eocene-Oligocene
         Transition
       * 1.5.3.2 Interactions during and since the last glacial period
       * 1.5.4 Interactions between tipping systems and planetary-scale cascades
       * 1.5.5 Final remarks
   * 1.6 Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points
     * 1.6.1 Theory and methods of early warning signals
       * 1.6.1.2 Temporal methods
       * 1.6.1.3 Spatial methods
       * 1.6.1.4 Network methods
       * 1.6.1.5 Model methods
       * 1.6.1.6 Limitations
     * 1.6.2 Case studies of empirically measured EWS
       * 1.6.2.1 Cryosphere: Ice sheets and sea ice
       * 1.6.2.2 Biosphere: Amazon rainforest dieback
       * 1.6.2.3 Ocean: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
     * 1.6.3 Recommendations and looking ahead
       * 1.6.3.1 Increasing data availability
       * 1.6.3.2 Models and EWS of tipping points
       * 1.6.3.3 Applications of AI for predicting tipping points
     * 1.6.4 Final Remarks
   * 1.7 Earth System Tipping Points – Synthesis
   * References
 * Section 2
   * * * 2: Tipping point impacts
         
         Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of
         Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative
         tipping points in human systems. Next we assess the potential for
         cascading and compounding systemic risk, before considering the
         potential for early warning of impact tipping points.
         
         • Section Summary
         • Key messages
         • Recommendations
         
         Section 2: Download PDF [6mb]
     * *  * 2.1 Introduction
          * 2.2 Assessing Impacts of Earth System Tipping Points on Human
            Societies
            * 2.2.1 Introduction
            * 2.2.2 Impacts of cryosphere tipping points
              * 2.2.2.1 Ice sheets
              * 2.2.2.2 Sea ice
              * 2.2.2.3 Permafrost
            * 2.2.3 Impacts of biosphere tipping points
              * 2.2.3.1 Amazon dieback
              * 2.2.3.2 Methane hydrate destabilisation
            * 2.2.4 Impacts of ocean-atmosphere circulation tipping points
              * 2.2.4.1 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
            * 2.2.5 Potential for Earth system tipping points to magnify or
              accelerate impacts of global warming
            * 2.2.6 Sector-based impacts assessment of climate system tipping
              points
              * 2.2.6.1 Water security
              * 2.2.6.2 Food security
              * 2.2.6.3 Energy security
              * 2.2.6.4 Health
              * 2.2.6.5 Biodiversity and ecosystem services
              * 2.2.6.6 Communities, economies and displacement
          * 2.3 Negative social tipping points
            * 2.3.1 Introduction
            * 2.3.2. Anomie
              * 2.3.2.1 Earth system destabilisation and anomie
              * 2.3.2.2 Anomie tipping dynamics
              * 2.3.2.3 Anomie feedback on the Earth system
            * 2.3.3. Radicalisation & polarisation
              * 2.3.3.1 Earth system destabilisation and radicalisation and
                polarisation
              * 2.3.3.2 Radicalisation and polarisation tipping dynamics
              * 2.3.3.3 Radicalisation and polarisation feedback on the Earth
                system
            * 2.3.4 Displacement
              * 2.3.4.1 Earth system destabilisation and displacement
              * 2.3.4.2 Displacement tipping dynamics
              * 2.3.4.3. Displacement Feedback on the Earth System
            * 2.3.5. Violent conflict
              * 2.3.5.1 Earth system destabilisation and violent conflict
              * 2.3.5.2 Violent conflict tipping dynamics
              * 2.3.5.3 Violent conflict feedback on the Earth system
            * 2.3.6 Financial destabilisation
              * 2.3.6.1 Earth system destabilisation and financial
                destabilisation
              * 2.3.6.2 Financial destabilisation tipping dynamic
              * 2.3.6.3 Financial destabilisation feedback on the Earth system
          * 2.4 Cascades of tipping in impacts
            * 2.4.1 Introduction
            * 2.4.2 Research approach
            * 2.4.3 State of literature on cascades and tipping points
            * 2.4.4 Case phenomena exemplifying tipping cascades
              * 2.4.4.1 Amazon rainforest
              * 2.4.4.2 Coral reef degradation and small-scale fisheries
              * 2.4.4.3 Forced migration
              * 2.4.4.4 The Arab Spring
              * 2.4.4.5 Shrinkage of Lake Chad
            * 2.4.5 Future research needs
              * 2.4.5.1 Clarification of concepts
              * 2.4.5.2 Key systems for research
              * 2.4.5.3 Key methodological advances
              * 2.4.5.4 Key governance implications
          * 2.5 Early warning of tipping points in impacts
            * 2.5.1 Early warning signals in social-ecological systems: The
              challenge
            * 2.5.2 Early warning signals: What can we learn from
              social-ecological models?
            * 2.5.3 State of Affairs: Application of early warning signals in
              social-ecological systems
              * 2.5.3.1 Food security
              * 2.5.3.2 Tipping points in managed vegetation systems
              * 2.5.3.3. Tipping points to detect anomie
              * 2.5.3.4 Tipping points to detect social crises
            * 2.5.4 Where next: Areas of future research
              * 2.5.4.1 Data questions
              * 2.5.4.2 Policy questions
          * References
 * 2. Tipping point impacts
   * 2.1 Introduction
   * 2.2 Assessing Impacts of Earth System Tipping Points on Human Societies
     * 2.2.1 Introduction
     * 2.2.2 Impacts of cryosphere tipping points
       * 2.2.2.1 Ice sheets
       * 2.2.2.3 Sea ice
       * 2.2.2.4 Permafrost
     * 2.2.3 Impacts of biosphere tipping points
       * 2.2.3.1 Amazon dieback
       * 2.2.3.2 Methane hydrate destabilisation
     * 2.2.4 Impacts of ocean-atmosphere circulation tipping points
       * 2.2.4.1 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
     * 2.2.5 Potential for Earth system tipping points to magnify or accelerate
       impacts of global warming
     * 2.2.6 Sector-based impacts assessment of climate system tipping points
       * 2.2.6.1 Water security
       * 2.2.6.2 Food security
       * 2.2.6.3 Energy security
       * 2.2.6.4 Health
       * 2.2.6.5 Biodiversity and ecosystem services
       * 2.2.6.6 Communities, economies and displacement
   * 2.3 Negative social tipping points
     * 2.3.1 Introduction
     * 2.3.2. Anomie
       * 2.3.2.1 Earth system destabilisation and anomie
       * 2.3.2.2 Anomie tipping dynamics
       * 2.3.2.3 Anomie feedback on the Earth system
     * 2.3.3. Radicalisation & polarisation
       * 2.3.3.1 Earth system destabilisation and radicalisation and
         polarisation
       * 2.3.3.2 Radicalisation and polarisation tipping dynamics
       * 2.3.3.3 Radicalisation and polarisation feedback on the Earth system
     * 2.3.4 Displacement
       * 2.3.4.1 Earth system destabilisation and displacement
       * 2.3.4.2 Displacement tipping dynamics
       * 2.3.4.3. Displacement Feedback on the Earth System
     * 2.3.5. Violent conflict
       * 2.3.5.1 Earth system destabilisation and violent conflict
       * 2.3.5.2 Violent conflict tipping dynamics
       * 2.3.5.3 Violent conflict feedback on the Earth system
     * 2.3.6 Financial destabilisation
       * 2.3.6.1 Earth system destabilisation and financial destabilisation
       * 2.3.6.2 Financial destabilisation tipping dynamic
       * 2.3.6.3 Financial destabilisation feedback on the Earth system
   * 2.4 Cascades of tipping in impacts
     * 2.4.1 Introduction
     * 2.4.2 Research approach
     * 2.4.3 State of literature on cascades and tipping points
     * 2.4.4 Case phenomena exemplifying tipping cascades
       * 2.4.4.1 Amazon rainforest
       * 2.4.4.2 Coral reef degradation and small-scale fisheries
       * 2.4.4.3 Forced migration
       * 2.4.4.4 The Arab Spring
       * 2.4.4.5 Shrinkage of Lake Chad
     * 2.4.5 Future research needs
       * 2.4.5.1 Clarification of concepts
       * 2.4.5.2 Key systems for research
       * 2.4.5.3 Key methodological advances
       * 2.4.5.4 Key governance implications
   * 2.5 Early warning of tipping points in impacts
     * 2.5.1 Early warning signals in social-ecological systems: The challenge
     * 2.5.2 Early warning signals: What can we learn from social-ecological
       models?
     * 2.5.3 State of Affairs: Application of early warning signals in
       social-ecological systems
       * 2.5.3.1 Food security
       * 2.5.3.2 Tipping points in managed vegetation systems
       * 2.5.3.3. Tipping points to detect anomie
       * 2.5.3.4 Tipping points to detect social crises
     * 2.5.4 Where next: Areas of future research
       * 2.5.4.1 Data questions
       * 2.5.4.2 Policy questions
   * References
 * Section 3
   * * * 3: Governance of Earth system tipping points
         
         Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their
         associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and
         stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including
         adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage. Finally, we assess the
         need for knowledge generation at the science-policy interface.
         
         • Section Summary
         • Key messages
         • Recommendations
         
         Section 3: Download PDF [4mb]
     * *  * 3.1 Introduction
            * 3.1.1 A New governance agenda for Earth system tipping points
            * 3.1.2 Governance goals and principles
              * 3.1.2.1 Governance goals
              * 3.1.2.2 Governance Principles
            * 3.1.3 Actors, institutions, and scales of action
              * 3.1.3.1 The multiple sales of tipping point governance
              * 3.1.3.2 The international climate change regime
              * 3.1.3.3 Other existing institutions and actors
            * 3.1.4 The politics of tipping-point governance
            * 3.1.5 Public communication and risk perceptions
            * 3.1.6 Final remarks
          * 3.2 Prevention of Earth system tipping processes
            * 3.2.1 Prevention as a governance goal
            * 3.2.2 Multiple drivers of tipping processes
            * 3.2.3 Prevention approaches and institutional options
              * 3.2.3.1 Mitigation
              * 3.2.3.2 Short-lived climate pollutants
              * 3.2.3.3 Carbon dioxide removal
              * 3.2.3.4 Solar geoengineering
              * 3.2.3.5 Addressing other causes of tipping
            * 3.2.4 The politics of prevention
            * 3.2.5 Final remarks
          * 3.3 Tipping point impact governance
            * 3.3.1 Rethinking impact governance for global environmental change
              * 3.3.1.1 The rationale for ESTP impact governance
              * 3.3.1.2 Matching problem scales and institutions
              * 3.3.1.3 Relevant actors and policy domains
            * 3.3.2 Challenges of tipping point impact governance
              * 3.3.2.1 Magnitude of change
              * 3.3.2.2 Speed of change
              * 3.3.2.3 Impact distribution and new vulnerabilities
              * 3.3.2.4 Novel impact types
              * 3.3.2.5 Irreversibility and permanence of change
              * 3.3.2.6 Secondary or cascading impacts
            * 3.3.3 Governance of ESTP impacts
              * 3.3.3.1 Objectives of ESTP impact governance
              * 3.3.3.2 Multi-level, multi-phase, and multi-network governance
              * 3.3.3.3 Early warning systems
              * 3.3.3.4 Cascade governance
              * 3.3.3.5 Justice, equity and distribution of vulnerability
            * 3.3.4 Final remarks
          * 3.4 Knowledge co-production and science-policy engagement
            * 3.4.1 Knowledge needs, status quo, and learning challenges
              * 3.4.1.1 Knowledge needs
              * 3.4.1.2 Status quo
              * 3.4.1.3 Learning challenges
            * 3.4.2 Needed knowledges and knowledge production
              * 3.4.2.1 Knowledge characteristics
              * 3.4.2.2 Knowledge-production processes
            * 3.4.3 Effective science-policy interactions for tipping point
              governance
              * 3.4.3.1 Building on existing science-policy engagement processes
              * 3.4.3.2. Using early warning signals?
            * 3.4.4 Knowledge politics
            * 3.4.5 Final remarks
          * References
 * 3. Governance of Earth system tipping points
   * 3.1 Governing Earth system tipping points – Introduction
     * 3.1.1 A New governance agenda for Earth system tipping points
     * 3.1.2 Governance goals and principles
       * 3.1.2.1 Governance goals
       * 3.1.2.2 Governance Principles
     * 3.1.3 Actors, institutions, and scales of action
       * 3.1.3.1 The multiple sales of tipping point governance
       * 3.1.3.2 The international climate change regime
       * 3.1.3.3 Other existing institutions and actors
     * 3.1.4 The politics of tipping-point governance
     * 3.1.5 Public communication and risk perceptions
     * 3.1.6 Final remarks
   * 3.2 Prevention of Earth system tipping processes
     * 3.2.1 Prevention as a governance goal
     * 3.2.2 Multiple drivers of tipping processes
     * 3.2.3 Prevention approaches and institutional options
       * 3.2.3.1 Mitigation
       * 3.2.3.2 Short-lived climate pollutants
       * 3.2.3.3 Carbon dioxide removal
       * 3.2.3.4 Solar geoengineering
       * 3.2.3.5 Addressing other causes of tipping
     * 3.2.4 The politics of prevention
     * 3.2.5 Final remarks
   * 3.3 Tipping point impact governance
     * 3.3.1 Rethinking impact governance for global environmental change
       * 3.3.1.1 The rationale for ESTP impact governance
       * 3.3.1.2 Matching problem scales and institutions
       * 3.3.1.3 Relevant actors and policy domains
     * 3.3.2 Challenges of tipping point impact governance
       * 3.3.2.1 Magnitude of change
       * 3.3.2.2 Speed of change
       * 3.3.2.3 Impact distribution and new vulnerabilities
       * 3.3.2.4 Novel impact types
       * 3.3.2.5 Irreversibility and permanence of change
       * 3.3.2.6 Secondary or cascading impacts
     * 3.3.3 Governance of ESTP impacts
       * 3.3.3.1 Objectives of ESTP impact governance
       * 3.3.3.2 Multi-level, multi-phase, and multi-network governance
       * 3.3.3.3 Early warning systems
       * 3.3.3.4 Cascade governance
       * 3.3.3.5 Justice, equity and distribution of vulnerability
     * 3.3.4 Final remarks
   * 3.4 Knowledge co-production and science-policy engagement
     * 3.4.1 Knowledge needs, status quo, and learning challenges
       * 3.4.1.1 Knowledge needs
       * 3.4.1.2 Status quo
       * 3.4.1.3 Learning challenges
     * 3.4.2 Needed knowledges and knowledge production
       * 3.4.2.1 Knowledge characteristics
       * 3.4.2.2 Knowledge-production processes
     * 3.4.3 Effective science-policy interactions for tipping point governance
       * 3.4.3.1 Building on existing science-policy engagement processes
       * 3.4.3.2. Using early warning signals?
     * 3.4.4 Knowledge politics
     * 3.4.5 Final remarks
   * References
 * Section 4
   * * * 4: Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
         
         Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and
         society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on
         positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across
         energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on
         demand-side solutions (which have previously received limited
         attention).
         
         • Section Summary
         • Key messages
         • Recommendations
         
         Section 4: Download PDF [5mb]
     * *  * 4.1 Introduction
          * 4.2 Understanding and acting on positive tipping points
            * 4.2.1 Introduction
              * 4.2.1.1 Similarities between ESTPs and PTPs
              * 4.2.1.2 Differences between ESTPs and PTPs
              * 4.2.1.3 Not all systems have tipping points
              * 4.2.1.4 PTP dynamics
            * 4.2.2 Agents
            * 4.2.3 Interventions
              * 4.2.3.1 Enabling Conditions
              * 4.2.3.2 Reinforcing feedbacks
              * 4.2.3.3 Dampening feedbacks
              * 4.2.3.4 Triggers of positive tipping
            * 4.2.4 Shallow and unintended consequences
            * 4.2.5 Tipping cascades
          * 4.3 Positive tipping points in energy, transport and food systems
            * 4.3.1 Energy systems
              * 4.3.1.1 Introduction
              * 4.3.1.2 Fast growth in renewable electricity supply drives
                social tipping in the energy system
              * 4.3.1.3 Positive tipping dynamics that build on the fast growth
                in wind and solar technologies and services
            * 4.3.2 Transport and mobility systems
              * 4.3.2.1 Introduction
              * 4.3.2.2 Improving passenger transport with the transition to
                electric vehicles
              * 4.3.2.3 Shifting to enhanced active mobility
              * 4.3.2.4 Enhanced heavy capacity public transport networks
              * 4.3.2.5 Positive tipping points in other transport systems
            * 4.3.3 Food systems
              * 4.3.3.1 Introduction
              * 4.3.3.2 Avoiding food loss and waste 
              * 4.3.3.3 Shifting towards more plant-based diets
              * 4.3.3.4 Improving alternatives to animal products
              * 4.3.3.5 Shifting Farming Practice
              * 4.3.3.6 Food system tipping points have important feedbacks for
                protecting nature
              * 4.3.3.7 Strategic interventions to enable positive tipping
                points in food systems
          * 4.4 Cross-cutting enablers of positive tipping points
            * 4.4.1 Socio-behavioural systems
              * 4.4.1.1 Introduction
              * 4.4.1.2 Social norms facilitate tipping and can themselves tip
              * 4.4.1.3 Social movements as norm entrepreneurs
              * 4.4.1.4 Policies that facilitate tipping in social norms 
              * 4.4.1.5 The role of climate education and engagement
            * 4.4.2 Political systems
              * 4.4.2.1 Introduction
              * 4.4.2.2 Political systems can enable (or dampen) social tipping
              * 4.4.2.3 Political systems themselves can tip
              * 4.4.2.4 Civil society & political tipping: The role of social
                movements and coalition formation
              * 4.4.2.5 International climate governance and the diffusion of
                political change
            * 4.4.3. Financial systems
              * 4.4.3.1 Introduction
              * 4.4.3.2 Feedbacks between public and private finance 
              * 4.4.3.3 Strategic policy intervention
              * 4.4.3.4 Accelerating renewables investment in the Global South
              * 4.4.3.5 Tipping points in financing of fossil fuels
            * 4.4.4 Digitalisation
              * 4.4.4.1 Introduction
              * 4.4.4.2  Conceptual underpinnings
              * 4.4.4.3 Digital technologies and avoid options: Teleworking
              * 4.4.4.4 Digital technologies and shift options:
                Mobility-as-a-Service
              * 4.4.4.5 Digital technologies and improve options: Smart homes
              * 4.4.4.6 Other domains where digital technologies can enable
                positive tipping
              * 4.4.4.7 Strategic interventions 
            * 4.4.5 Detecting ‘early opportunity indicators’ for positive
              tipping points
              * 4.4.5.1 Predicting tipping points
              * 4.4.5.2 Detecting early opportunity signals indicators in the
                electric vehicle transition
              * 4.4.5.3 Resilience change prior to the EV transition tipping
                point
              * 4.4.5.4 Changes detectable in other social data?
              * 4.4.5.5 Limitations
              * 4.4.5.6 Measuring progress – Early opportunity indicators in
                other sectors
          * 4.5 Positive tipping cascades
            * 4.5.1 Introduction 
            * 4.5.2 Cross-system interactions leading to cascades
              * 4.5.2.1. Cascading effects in sociotechnical systems
              * 4.5.2.2 Cascading effects in social-ecological systems
              * 4.5.2.3 Cascading effects in sociopolitical systems
            * 4.5.3 Harnessing the power of cascades
          * 4.6 Risks, equity and justice in the governance of positive tipping
            points
            * 4.6.1 Introduction
            * 4.6.2 What do we mean by equity and justice?
            * 4.6.3 Governance of PTPs
              * 4.6.3.1  A polycentric approach to PTP governance
              * 4.6.3.2 Making the case for PTP governance
              * 4.6.3.3 Metaphorical scales of justice 
            * 4.6.4 Blind spots, risks and unintended consequences
              * 4.6.4.1 Examples of negative consequences
            * 4.6.5 Winners and losers: sacrifice zones
            * 4.6.6 Self-determination for the Global South
            * 4.6.7 Forms of equity and justice 
            * 4.6.8 Implications for practice
              * 4.6.8.1 Policymakers
              * 4.6.8.2 Finance
              * 4.6.8.3 Business
              * 4.6.8.4 Media and discourse
              * 4.6.8.5 Researchers
              * 4.6.8.6 Embrace creative co-production
          * References
 * 4. Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
   * 4.1 Introduction
   * 4.2 Understanding and acting on positive tipping points
     * 4.2.1 Introduction
       * 4.2.1.1 Similarities between ESTPs and PTPs
       * 4.2.1.2 Differences between ESTPs and PTPs
       * 4.2.1.3 Not all systems have tipping points
       * 4.2.1.4 PTP dynamics
     * 4.2.2 Agents
     * 4.2.3 Interventions
       * 4.2.3.1 Enabling Conditions
       * 4.2.3.2 Reinforcing feedbacks
       * 4.2.3.3 Dampening feedbacks
       * 4.2.3.4 Triggers of positive tipping
     * 4.2.4 Shallow and unintended consequences
     * 4.2.5 Tipping cascades
   * 4.3 Positive tipping points in energy, transport and food systems
     * 4.3.1 Energy systems
       * 4.3.1.1 Introduction
       * 4.3.1.2 Fast growth in renewable electricity supply drives social
         tipping in the energy system
       * 4.3.1.3 Positive tipping dynamics that build on the fast growth in wind
         and solar technologies and services
     * 4.3.2 Transport and mobility systems
       * 4.3.2.1 Introduction
       * 4.3.2.2 Improving passenger transport with the transition to electric
         vehicles
       * 4.3.2.3 Shifting to enhanced active mobility
       * 4.3.2.4 Enhanced heavy capacity public transport networks
       * 4.3.2.5 Positive tipping points in other transport systems
     * 4.3.3 Food systems
       * 4.3.3.1 Introduction
       * 4.3.3.2 Avoiding food loss and waste 
       * 4.3.3.3 Shifting towards more plant-based diets
       * 4.3.3.4 Improving alternatives to animal products
       * 4.3.3.5 Shifting Farming Practice
       * 4.3.3.6 Food system tipping points have important feedbacks for
         protecting nature
       * 4.3.3.7 Strategic interventions to enable positive tipping points in
         food systems
   * 4.4 Cross-cutting enablers of positive tipping points
     * 4.4.1 Socio-behavioural systems
       * 4.4.1.1 Introduction
       * 4.4.1.2 Social norms facilitate tipping and can themselves tip
       * 4.4.1.3 Social movements as norm entrepreneurs
       * 4.4.1.4 Policies that facilitate tipping in social norms 
       * 4.4.1.5 The role of climate education and engagement
     * 4.4.2 Political systems
       * 4.4.2.1 Introduction
       * 4.4.2.2 Political systems can enable (or dampen) social tipping
       * 4.4.2.3 Political systems themselves can tip
       * 4.4.2.4 Civil society & political tipping: The role of social movements
         and coalition formation
       * 4.4.2.5 International climate governance and the diffusion of political
         change
     * 4.4.3. Financial systems
       * 4.4.3.1 Introduction
       * 4.4.3.2 Feedbacks between public and private finance 
       * 4.4.3.3 Strategic policy intervention
       * 4.4.3.4 Accelerating renewables investment in the Global South
       * 4.4.3.5 Tipping points in financing of fossil fuels
     * 4.4.4 Digitalisation
       * 4.4.4.1 Introduction
       * 4.4.4.2  Conceptual underpinnings
       * 4.4.4.3 Digital technologies and avoid options: Teleworking
       * 4.4.4.4 Digital technologies and shift options: Mobility-as-a-Service
       * 4.4.4.5 Digital technologies and improve options: Smart homes
       * 4.4.4.6 Other domains where digital technologies can enable positive
         tipping
       * 4.4.4.7 Strategic interventions 
     * 4.4.5. Detecting ‘early opportunity indicators’ for positive tipping
       points
       * 4.4.5.1 Predicting tipping points
       * 4.4.5.2 Detecting early opportunity signals indicators in the electric
         vehicle transition
       * 4.4.5.3 Resilience change prior to the EV transition tipping point
       * 4.4.5.4 Changes detectable in other social data?
       * 4.4.5.5 Limitations
       * 4.4.5.6 Measuring progress – Early opportunity indicators in other
         sectors
   * 4.5 Positive tipping cascades
     * 4.5.1 Introduction 
     * 4.5.2 Cross-system interactions leading to cascades
       * 4.5.2.1. Cascading effects in sociotechnical systems
       * 4.5.2.2 Cascading effects in social-ecological systems
       * 4.5.2.3 Cascading effects in sociopolitical systems
     * 4.5.3 Harnessing the power of cascades
   * 4.6 Risks, equity and justice in the governance of positive tipping points
     * 4.6.1 Introduction
     * 4.6.2 What do we mean by equity and justice?
     * 4.6.3 Governance of PTPs
       * 4.6.3.1  A polycentric approach to PTP governance
       * 4.6.3.2 Making the case for PTP governance
       * 4.6.3.3 Metaphorical scales of justice 
     * 4.6.4 Blind spots, risks and unintended consequences
       * 4.6.4.1 Examples of negative consequences
     * 4.6.5 Winners and losers: sacrifice zones
     * 4.6.6 Self-determination for the Global South
     * 4.6.7 Forms of equity and justice 
     * 4.6.8 Implications for practice
       * 4.6.8.1 Policymakers
       * 4.6.8.2 Finance
       * 4.6.8.3 Business
       * 4.6.8.4 Media and discourse
       * 4.6.8.5 Researchers
       * 4.6.8.6 Embrace creative co-production
   * References
 * Appendices
   * Appendix 1: Glossary
   * Appendix 2: List of Contributing authors and reviewers


GLOBAL
TIPPING
POINTS


WELCOME

Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of
Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers
from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.

The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The
report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both
negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society.

Foreword by Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO at Bezos Earth Fund.




KEY MESSAGES




KEY RECOMMENDATIONS






SUMMARY REPORT

Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats
faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s
life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.


INTRODUCTION

This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth system
change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that trajectory,
achieve sustainability and promote social justice.


SECTION 1
EARTH SYSTEM TIPPING POINTS

Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and assessed across
the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere and circulation of the
oceans and atmosphere.


SECTION 2
TIPPING POINT IMPACTS

Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts of Earth
system tipping points, then the potential couplings to negative tipping points
in human systems.


SECTION 3
GOVERNANCE OF EARTH SYSTEM TIPPING POINTS

Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their associated risks.
We look at governance of mitigation, prevention and stabilisation then we focus
on governance of impacts, including adaptation, vulnerability and loss and
damage.


SECTION 4
POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS IN TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY & SOCIETY

Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and society. It
provides a framework for understanding and acting on positive tipping points. We
highlight illustrative case studies across energy, food and transport and
mobility systems, with a focus on demand-side solutions.


GLOBAL TIPPING POINT PATHWAYS INFOGRAPHIC

Click to enlarge, or download as PDF


DOWNLOADS

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Key recommendations

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Summary Report

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Full Report

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Section 2

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Section 4

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