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Home The Briefing Republicans improving key races
 * The Briefing


REPUBLICANS IMPROVING KEY RACES

Sep 12, 2022
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FLORENCE, ARIZONA - JANUARY 15: Republican governor candidate for Arizona Kari
Lake points to the crowd at a rally for former President Donald Trump at the
Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds on January 15, 2022 in Florence, Arizona. The
rally marks Trump's first of the midterm election year with races for both the
U.S. Senate and governor in Arizona this year. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty
Images)

This week: The Briefing, Vol. X, Issue 37

 * Democrats still short on voter enthusiasm gap
 * Arizona Dem chickens out on debates
 * Republican Senate picture brightens, slightly

Outlook

Democratic surge? Have Democrats achieved something real with their recent
apparent surge in congressional generic ballot polls? Or is this just a typical
example of the variations that occur ahead of every election?

Polls vary widely on the congressional generic ballot right now. But it is
important to remember that, not only do Republicans still lead in most of these
polls (albeit not by too much), but their numbers are historically understated
in such surveys generally. 

In 2014, a meager congressional generic ballot average of R+2.4 resulted in a
247-seat Republican House majority (218 seats are required for a majority), a
nine-seat gain in the U.S. Senate, and an epic down-ballot blowout at the state
level. 

Contrast this with the results in Democratic midterm years. In the wave year of
2006, a D+11.5 polling lead translated to a more modest 233-seat Democratic
House majority. In 2018, a D+8.4 lead translated to a 235-seat Democratic House
majority, even though Democrats lost two Senate seats that year. 

In short, this form of polling appears to favor Democrats generally, even if
this has not been the case in every election. 

In the overall congressional average, Democrats achieved a tie last week. Then
again, one single poll seems to be holding them up in the averages. And with the
exception of that same poll — that of the British magazine The Economist —
Biden’s approval also remains in the double digit negatives, usually closer to
20 than it is to 10 points underwater.

Voter enthusiasm: Another argument that Republicans are on track is the data on
voter enthusiasm. Republican voters remain more enthusiastic about voting in the
2022 election than Democrats by a statistically significant margin when the
question is asked. For example, the most recent CBS/YouGov poll showed a
five-point Republican advantage among those who will “definitely vote.” This gap
is usually an indication of where things are headed. The most recent Yahoo poll
also found a five-point advantage among Republican voters saying they
“definitely” or “likely” will vote this fall. 

The upshot of this is that Republicans should gain an advantage as pollsters
shift from surveying registered voters to surveying likely voters, as they
usually do around this time of year. 

The other piece of counter-evidence is of a more anecdotal nature. Republicans
appear to be making progress in some of the key races for House and Senate. The
pictures in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Nevada have improved just in
the last few days. Pennsylvania has also improved, although the Democratic
candidate there still retains a decisive advantage.

Meanwhile, Republicans appear set to gain several House seats where it is
surprising to see them competitive at all. They hold the lead in two additional
congressional seats in Oregon, both of them Democratic-leaning, one of them a
D+7 seat (the 5th and 6th districts). This has nothing to do with redistricting,
and everything to do with what looks like a big swing in public opinion against
Democrats and Joe Biden. 

Democrats’ argument: The theory on the other side is two fold. The first part is
that Joe Biden, with his “blood red” speech, is successfully making this year’s
race into a referendum on Donald Trump and not on himself. This seems
particularly implausible, given how poorly that speech was received and how
Democratic candidates are running away from it like their lives depend on it.

On the other hand, it is much more plausible that the overturn of Roe could be
keeping Democrats in the game, or even propelling them to unexpected success.
This remains entirely possible, and the Republican Red Wave could yet prove very
disappointing when it crashes. 

The reasoning is that even if House Democrats’ victory in Alaska can be written
off as a fluke due to the state’s peculiar small-field ranked choice voting
system, earlier Republican special election losses in New York State could be
taken as an ill omen.

Even so, there are enough individual races that seem to be shifting Republicans’
way right now (albeit perhaps too slowly) that it would be a mistake for
Democrats to get cocky. The red wave has not been dodged just yet. 

Governor 2022

Arizona: The refusal by Democratic nominee and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs to
debate the Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake (R) is, frankly, an embarrassment
for Hobbs. 

Yes, Lake has an extremely forceful personality,  and is very impressive to
watch after years of media training as a broadcaster. Democrats would counter
that she plays fast and loose with facts — fair enough, but she is a
sufficiently credible candidate that she needs to be rebutted and refuted, not
just dismissed. It appears that the progressive-left Hobbs is unwilling to trust
in her ability to accomplish this while going toe-to-toe with Lake. 

The two are virtually tied in all recent public polls, so there is really no
excuse for ducking out of a forum sponsored by an organization like the Citizens
Clean Election Commission, as Hobbs is doing.

The Hobbs campaign claims it wants a debate but has made clear that it is only
interested in a format that lets Hobbs avoid going up against Lake directly.
This is a cowardly evasion that Lake will surely spend the next two months
talking about non-stop. This should be much more effective than usual under
these circumstances, and it follows on after Hobbs also refused to debate her
Democratic opponent in the primary.

Senate 2022

Arizona: This race between Blake Masters and incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly is
finally starting to look like a genuinely competitive contest. Although Lake
runs ahead of Masters, he appears to have this contest within the margin of
error with plenty of time left on the clock. Kelly is still the clear favorite.

Georgia: Another week, another poll showing Herschel Walker leading incumbent
Sen. Raphael Warnock. Walker is certainly a flawed candidate, but he is running
in a Republican state where he is well known and liked. The Republican
gubernatorial nominee, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, has held a steady lead all
along against election denier Stacey Abrams. 

Although Georgia very narrowly rejected Donald Trump in 2020, it remains a state
where extreme liberalism is toxic. Republicans and conservatives can and should
win under the right conditions.

Nevada: The race between former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and incumbent
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) may well prove to be the most important Senate
race in the country in 2022. It is hotly contested, with the incumbent leading
by just one point in a poll released in mid-August, and Laxalt leading by three
points in another. 

Laxalt is among the best recruits of this year’s Senate class for Republicans,
and Cortez-Masto is among the weakest Democratic incumbents. Given Biden’s
enormous unpopularity, plus that of Gov. Steve Sisolak (who trailed his
Republican opponent in polls taken last month), Republicans should have a wind
at their backs in the Silver State this year. It is going to be very close.

New Hampshire: Gov. Chris Sununu, who is popular and will be easily renominated
tomorrow, has intervened at the last minute in the Senate race to endorse state
Senate president Chuck Morse in Tuesday’s primary. Morse trails badly against
retired Brigadier General Donald Bolduc, whose Trump-style populism has been
taking the Granite State’s Republican primary electorate by storm. Party leaders
are concerned about Bolduc’s ability to win against Democratic Sen. Maggie
Hassan, and some of them claim that his lead has been whittled down to the
single digits. Hassan’s numbers were pretty weak against all comets in the
spring, but no public surveys have been commissioned since then. 

Pennsylvania: With Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) finally coming under some serious
pressure about his physical health and his ability to hold off this after his
debilitating stroke, Mehmet Oz ® is finally starting to close the gap and poll
like a competitive candidate. But he still trails. 

Fetterman’s numbers have been plunging ever since he started making public
appearances, in part because he appears to be half-assing his campaign and
hiding, and in part because the stroke’s effects are quite noticeable. 

His reluctance to debate Oz (he finally agreed to just one late debate) is
starting to draw voters’ attention to the fact that he is either fit to debate
and to serve in the Senate, or he is fit to do neither. He won’t be able to have
it both ways. 

But Oz needs the debating to start soon, because absentee ballots are about to
go out in seven days.

 * Abrams
 * Anecdotal
 * Attorney General
 * Attorneys
 * Bad credit loan
 * Blake

 * Blowout
 * Breaking New
 * Brian
 * Brightens
 * Abrams
 * Anecdotal



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