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Martin Young
Aug 17, 2023


COINBASE FUTURES APPROVAL SEEN AS A MAJOR WIN AMID THE WAR ON CRYPTO

The recent approval allows Coinbase to join the ranks of the two major
derivative exchanges in the United States, CME and CBOE.

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The approval for America’s largest digital asset exchange, Coinbase, to offer
crypto futures to U.S. retail customers is being seen as a major regulatory
victory amid a heated battle with the country’s securities regulator.

On Aug. 16, the National Futures Association (NFA) — designated by the U.S.
commodities regulator as a registered futures association — granted Coinbase
permission to operate a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) platform.


A LOUD SIGNAL

Some crypto industry commentators see the approval as a significant regulatory
victory for Coinbase and crypto, given thathe U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission has accused the exchange of avoiding the registration of its
offerings.

“If I were a judge I'd wonder why somehow [Coinbase] manages to register with
the [CFTC] yet the [SEC] claims that Coinbase is unwilling to do the hard work
to register," investment management firm Electric Capital founder Avichal Garg
wrote in an Aug. 17 tweet.



Former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz, thpolicy head at crypto investment firm
a16z, said that “Customers and innovation can both win when a regulator is open
to having a constructive dialogue around new technology.”

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the approval was a major moment for
crypto clarity in the United States.


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A response to Coinbase securing futures approval. Source: X/SMTuffy

The move has also placed Coinbase in a position normally helmed by traditional
finance firms.

Two institutional exchanges, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago
Board Options Exchange, currently offer Bitcoin and Ether futures in the United
States. 

Coinbase labeled the move as a “critical milestone,” adding it makes it the
first crypto-native company to directly offer traditional spot crypto trading
alongside futures products.


TAPPING INTO A MASSIVE MARKET

In May, CoinGecko reported that the global crypto derivatives market was worth
just under $3 trillion, while Coinbase highlighted that the global crypto
derivatives market represents around three-quarters of all trading volumes.

“Since the global crypto derivatives market can be three to four times larger
than spot, this approval increases Coinbase’s total addressable market,” Dan
Dolev, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, wrote in an Aug. 16note, as reported by
Barron’s.

Orca Capital's Jeff Sekinger said “Coinbase is set to become a pivotal access
point for traders,” adding that its new products will “cater to this demand and
provide enhanced exposure and flexibility for investors.”

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors said it was “exciting times in
US crypto markets,” particularly given a pivot toward U.S. trading hours.

Related: Coinbase Derivatives Exchange set to roll out BTC and ETH futures

The firm initially unveiled plans to offer BTC and ETH futures contracts in
mid-2022. The new approval will allow Coinbase to offer the crypto futures
directly to eligible U.S. retail customers, rather than just institutional
clients. The exchange did not specify when it would become available, however.

Company stock (COIN) did not react to the news, dropping 1.56% on the day to
reach $77.7 in after-hours trading; however, Coinbase shares are up 130% so far
this year.

Cointelegraph has reached out to Coinbase for further comments.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your
support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

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other advice. Nothing contained on this widget constitutes a solicitation,
recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Cointelegraph or any third party
service provider to buy or sell any cryptoassets or other financial instruments.
We advise you to spend only what you can afford to lose, and always seek
independent financial advice if you are in doubt. You should not purchase any
cryptoassets if you do not fully understand the nature of your purchase and the
risks involved. We recommend that you refer to the issuer’s/ advertiser’s t&c
and help/ support pages for more information.
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Brayden Lindrea
Aug 17, 2023


BITCOIN PRICE WILL SURGE PAST $150K IF SPOT ETFS ARE APPROVED: ANALYST

Even if the filings for Bitcoin spot ETFs are rejected, Lee predicts Bitcoin’s
halving event will still push up BTC's price — but not to six figures.

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The price of Bitcoin

BTC

$26,061

will surge past an eye-watering $150,000 by the end of 2024, as long as the
current slew of United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are
approved, according to investment research boutique Fundstrat.

In an Aug. 16 interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Fundstrat’s managing partner and
head of research, Tom Lee, predicted that a bundle of successful Bitcoin spot
ETF applications would shift Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics towards
considerable price appreciation.

When asked what the price of Bitcoin could be by the end of next year, Lee
didn’t hold back:

> “If the spot Bitcoin (ETF) gets approved, I think the demand will be greater
> than the daily supply of Bitcoin, so the clearing price [...] is over
> $150,000, it could even be like $180,000.”

Lee clarified that this could be the case so long as it is a United
States-approved spot Bitcoin ETF, as there are already spot Bitcoin ETFs in
Europe. 



> “If the Spot #Bitcoin ETF gets approved … the clearing price of $BTC is above
> $150,000.” – Tom Lee @fundstrat pic.twitter.com/ILQZqdjsZA
> 
> — Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) August 16, 2023

The United States currently makes up 97.7% of the global trading volume for
crypto-related ETFs, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Once spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, this could go to 99.5%, he said. 

However, even if the spot ETF applications are rejected, Lee still predicts a
considerable price push to come from Bitcoin’s next halving event, expected to
take place in April 2024.

> “You will have a drop in supply again, so the clearing price has to increase.
> But it won’t be six figures.”

In June, Wall Street heavyweights Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie
followed the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock in applying for a Bitcoin
spot ETF with the SEC.

However, some of these firms may not learn their fate until sometime in 2024 as
the SEC has up to 240 days to make a final decision on an application after
commencing the review process.

The outcome of Grayscale’s appeal to convert its GBTC trust product into a
Bitcoin spot ETF is however expected to come sooner rather than later.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently estimated that
there’s a 65% chance of these Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved by the securities
regulator — a significant increase from before BlackRock’s application.

Related: $160K at next halving? Model counts down to new Bitcoin all-time high

Other have tipped that a $100,000 Bitcoin price could come much sooner than
expected, with Blockstream CEO Adam Back recently wagering that Bitcoin will
notch the new price milestone the month before the halving event.

However, not everyone is inclined to agree. Jesse Myer, the co-founder of
Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, explained on Aug. 15 that the market would only
price in the changed reality 12-18 months post-halving.

“Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving,” he said.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your
support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: Wolf Of All Streets worries about a world where Bitcoin
hits $1M

Exchange or buy BTC

Disclaimer: The information contained on this widget is not intended as, and
shall not be understood or construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or
other advice. Nothing contained on this widget constitutes a solicitation,
recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Cointelegraph or any third party
service provider to buy or sell any cryptoassets or other financial instruments.
We advise you to spend only what you can afford to lose, and always seek
independent financial advice if you are in doubt. You should not purchase any
cryptoassets if you do not fully understand the nature of your purchase and the
risks involved. We recommend that you refer to the issuer’s/ advertiser’s t&c
and help/ support pages for more information.
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 * #Bitcoin
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