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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IS FEELING THE AFTERSHOCKS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
This market is turning into the most intricate Rube Goldberg machine the world
has ever known.
First, it’s inflation running wild to get the ball rolling.
Then, JPOW and his band of Fed heads hit the dominos with rate hikes, time and
time again.
Next, we see long-term bonds that the banks are holding fall over the edge of
the table, causing our financial institutions to start to collapse…
Well, the next stop on our way to the payoff of a true market bottom is the real
estate market.
We are starting to hear more and more people tell us about the “systematic risk”
of this sector.
The reason for this is that it’s an additional arm of the financial sector.
Let’s be honest, the people at the top of the real estate market are not using
cash to get into new projects, they are leveraging their current properties to
grow their empires.
This is where the crack in the foundation is the weakest…
You can go out and see the debt-to-equity ratio of some of these companies and
see that leveraging the debt in their current holdings is the most valuable tool
in their kits.
The only thing is, we are coming out of a period of interest rates that made
this tactic seem like an infinite money hack – as the kids would say.
But now, the Fed has thrown a wrench in their plans, and the chickens are coming
home to roost.
In the next three years, there is $1.5 TRILLION in CRE loans that will be
maturing during a period where interest rates are high.
That means that the people holding those loans are either going to need to pay
up or refinance. In either scenario, they will be paying substantially more than
they were in recent years.
Everybody from the owners of the empty storefronts in your local mall to the
storage facility where you shove everything you can’t fit in your attic.
But really, can you afford to get rid of the VHS recording of that
Steelers-Ravens game from 1996?
Of course not, and you have a set price to keep that locked away, and the
company knows it is getting that money.
Where it starts to get sticky for the company is when its overhead costs go up
and revenue stays the same.
Heck, even the revenue for a lot of these companies is getting hit, as they
carry the cost of brick-and-mortar stores when people are shopping in person
less.
Or corporations that are bearing the cost of empty office buildings as employees
are opting to work from home more than ever before.
The only way this gets better for the people holding the debt in these locations
is if the Fed starts to cut rates – and in a hurry.
Even interest rates staying the same does nothing for this situation because
they will still be refinancing at a high rate. They need a full-blown pivot.
But here’s the kicker…
Just because they’re in a position that could cost them dearly doesn’t mean that
you need to suffer with them…
We see this coming in advance and will be monitoring the sector heavily to
capitalize on the extreme movements that are bound to come soon.
To effectively monitor this sector, you’ll want to watch IShares US Real Estate
ETF (IYR) closely…
Currently down 3.3% for the year, IYR continues to be in a firm decline.
The last time we saw a drop of this nature, we were just starting to hear about
empty workspaces and companies opting for a work-from-home or hybrid-work model.
This gives you a bit of perspective on the real estate market and understanding
that it was already in trouble, even before these huge spikes in overhead costs
hit the table.
But just as with any ETF, IYR is comprised of specific companies.
In this basket of stocks, there are 21 companies that makeup 65.5% of IYR, and
here they are sorted by weight:
These are the most heavily weighted stocks on the IYR — or the tail that wags
the dog for the real estate market.
You might even recognize some of these names. But soon, many of them could just
be a relic of the past…
Of course, the ones in green are just storage. Just like that Ravens-Steelers
VHS, you’ll always have stuff that you need to squirrel away and deal with
another time.
But the ones that I want you to watch closely are Realty Income Corporation (O)
and Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG).
Something to note about each of these companies is they also fall into the
retail space, which I already explained contains plenty of weaknesses as people
start to pull back on their spending.
If you want to trade these two companies, remember you need to trade for the
trend and NOT the day.
These stocks will see volatility ahead of earnings, but you can’t let that
affect your trade. Buy the time and give yourself some space to let it come to
life.
For O, all of the moving averages are showing a negative trend, and there is
plenty of open interest in the April expiration at the $60 level. But again,
there isn’t much time there.
When you go out to the many options, the peak open interest goes even lower,
showing the market is beginning to lower its expectations. As a result, this
stock is likely going to retest its lows from October and make its way to $55
over the next four-to-six weeks.
As for SPG, this stock just broke below its 200-day moving average, and when you
zoom out and look at the monthly chart, you’ll see that the 20-month moving
average is rolling over. If this stock breaks below $100, you’ll likely see a
20% drop follow in lockstep.
This is still a developing story, so be sure to watch your inbox and join me on
the morning show so we can follow the markets as this unfolds. It’ll be a slow
burn, but the payoff will be massive.
Talk soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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August 12, 2021: Buy NSAV for a limit of $0.045%
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August 17, 2021: Buy NTTHF for a limit of $3. Add a 5% trailing stop when the
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09/17/2021
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Sept 17, 2021: Buy RGBP for a limit of $0.05. Add a 7% trailing stop when the
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08/30/2021
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August 30, 2021: Buy ABML for a limit of $1.75. Add a 7% trailing stop when the
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09/22/2021
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-62.6%
Sept 22, 2021: Buy WSTRF for a limit of $2.75. Add a 10% trailing stop when the
stock hits $3.25.%
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Published
March 29 2023
by Penny Hawk Staff
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