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YURIY GORODNICHENKO

Quantedge Presidential Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880

phone: (510) 643-0720

fax: (510) 642-6615
email: ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu

 

Other affiliations:

NBER, Faculty research associate

CEPR, Research fellow

IZA, Research fellow

Journal of Monetary Economics, Editor

Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, Editor

SF Fed, Visiting scholar

 


INFORMATION

Curriculum vitae (PDF) | Teaching | Macro/Int’l Reading Group | Research
Statement | Ukraine | VoxUkraine | Econ4Ukraine | CEPR Ukraine Initiative | U.S.
Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations | Photo

 


PUBLICATIONS

"Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and policies," coedited with Ilona Sologoub and
Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2022, CEPR Press, PDF, українська версія.

"Ukraine’s Reconstruction: Policy Options for Building an Effective Financial
Architecture," joint with Elena Carletti, Harold James, Jan-Pieter Krahnen,
Vladyslav Rashkovan, Alexander Rodnyansky, and Ilona Sologoub, 2024, CEPR Press,
PDF, українська версія.

"How to Rebuild Ukraine: A Synthesis and Critical Review of Policy Proposals,"
with Torbjörn Becker and Beatrice Weder di Mauro, PDF (CEPR), accepted for
publication in Annual Review of Economics.

"Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation
Settings" with Hassan Afrouzi, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, Serafin Frache,
Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Saten Kumar, Rodrigo Lluberas, Brent Meyer,
Jorge Ponce, Tiziano Ropele, Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA), accepted for
publication in Econometrica.

"The Economics of Financial Stress," with Dmitriy Sergeyev and Chen Lian, PDF
(NBER, IZA), accepted for publication in Review of Economic Studies.

"The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and
Consumer Spending," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF,  NBER,
IZA, BFI), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 229(2025): 106846.

-        In media: VoxEU.

"Central Bank Communication on Social Media: What, To Whom, and How?" with Tho
Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link (PDF), accepted for publication in Journal of
Econometrics.

"A Research Program on Monetary Policy for Europe," with Carlo Altavilla,
Matthieu Bussière, Jordi Galí, Refet Gürkaynak, and Hélène Rey, Link, Journal of
Monetary Economics 147(S): 103673.

"Monetary Policy in Europe: Out of the Woods?" in Michael Bordo, John Cochrane,
and John Taylor, eds., Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track, Link (PDF).

"The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," with
Bernardo Candia and Olivier Coibion, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA), Journal of
Monetary Economics 145(2024): 103569.

-        In media:  Econbrowser, CentralBanking, Reuters, Brookings, Economist,
WSJ, Economist.

"The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers," with Ethan M.L. McClure, Vita
Yaremko, and Olivier Coibion, PDF (NBER, IZA), accepted for publication in
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

"Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy,"
with Olivier Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), AER Insights
 6(2024): 246-261.

"Unbundling of Quantitative Easing: Taking a Cue from Treasury Auctions," with
Michael Droste and Walker Ray, Link (PDF, NBER),  Journal of Political Economy
132(2024): 3115–3172.

"Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," with Olivier Coibion,
Erwan Gautier, and Frédérique Savignac, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA), Journal of
European Economic Association 22(6) 2748–2781.

"The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions," with Olivier
Coibion and Saten Kumar, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA) Econometrica 91(2023):
1297–1332.

"The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," with Olivier
Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, ECB,
NBER, CEPR, IZA), American Economic Review 114(2024): 645–677.

 

"The Voice of Monetary Policy," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link (PDF,
NBER, CEPR) American Economic Review 113(2023): 548-584.

-        In media: CentalBanking, FT, UBirmingham, Reuters, Globe&Mail.

"Culture and Global Sourcing," with Bohdan Kukharskyy and Gérard Roland, Link
(PDF, NBER, CEPR) Journal of Development Economics 166 (2024): 103175.

-        in media: VoxEU.org. 

"Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms," with Bernardo Candia,
Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF) AEA Papers and Proceedings
113(2023): 52-55.

"Macroeconomic Frameworks: Reconciling Evidence and Model Predictions from
Demand Shocks," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, PDF (NBER), accepted for
publication in AEJ Macroeconomics.

"Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris
Georgarakos, and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), Journal of European
Economic Association 21(2023): 2131–2171.

"Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations," with Olivier Coibion,
Edward Knotek, and Raphael Schoenle, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, Cleveland Fed),
Journal of Political Economy – Macroeconomics 1(2023): 403–446.

-        In media: Reuters, WSJ, Handelsblatt, Reuters II, CB, VoxEU, Loretta
Mester, NYT.

"Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation
expectations," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal
of Political Economy 130(2022).

-        In media: WSJ, Bloomberg, VoxEU, ECB, Lagarde, Bundesbank, Bank of
Canada.

"The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and
during the COVID19 Pandemic," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, Link (PDF,
NBER, CEPR, IZA) IMF Economic Review 72(2023): 326–368.

"The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement,
Determinants, and Implications," with Olivier Coibion, Francesco D’Acunto, and
Michael Weber, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA), Journal of Economic Perspectives
36(2022): 157–184.

"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices," with Michael
Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas,  Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, Steve
Tadelis, Link (PDF, appendix) AEJ Macroeconomics 15(2023): 129-160.

-        in media: Econbrowser, Janet Yellen.

"The Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms," with Bernardo Candia and Olivier
Coibion, PDF, Appendix, Handbook of Economic Expectations.

"How Does Consumption Respond to News About Inflation? Field Evidence from a
Randomized Control Trial," with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and
Maarten van Rooij, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), AEJ Macroeconomics 15(2023): 109-152.

"Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession," with Alan Auerbach, Dan Murphy
and Peter McCrory, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA), Journal International Money and
Finance 126(2022), 102669.

"Comment on "Losing the Inflation Anchor" by Ricardo Reis," accepted for
publication in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2021(Fall), Link (PDF).

"Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-order Beliefs in Survey Data,"
with Olivier Coibion, Saten Kumar, and Jane Ryngaert, Link (PDF, NBER),
Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(2021), 1387–1446.

"Social media, sentiment and public opinions: Evidence from #Brexit and
#USElection," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera, Link (PDF, NBER), European
Economic Review 136(2021), 103772.

-        in media: Time, WSJ, Huffington, Berkeley News.

"Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy," with
Alan Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, Link (PDF, NBER), European Economic Review
137(2021), 103810.

"No Firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ aggregate
expectations," with  Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, and Erwan Gautier, Link
(PDF, NBER), Journal of Monetary Economics (CRN) 125(2022): 40-56.

"Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?" with Olivier Coibion and Michael
Weber, Link PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI), International Journal of Central Banking
72(2022).

"Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases," with Olivier Coibion
and Dmitri Koustas, Link (PDF, appendix, NBER, IZA), AEJ Macroeconomics
13(2021): 449-482.

-        In media: Financial Post, NBER Digest, VoxEU, AEA.

"Conference presentations and academic publishing," with Tho Pham and Oleksandr
Talavera, Link (PDF, NBER), Economic Modelling 95(2021): 228-254.

"Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods," with Oleksandr Talavera and Nam
Vu, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), Economic Modelling 98(2021): 69-85.

"Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," with Bernardo Candia and
Olivier Coibion, in Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary
Policy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY) Proceedings, Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2020.  Link (PDF, NBER).

-        In media: NYT, La Jornada, Infobae, Bloomberg, S&P Global, Yahoo, NRC,
FT, Christine Lagarde, Jens Weidmann.

"Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?" with Olivier Coibion, Saten Kumar,
and Mathieu Pedemonte, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of International Economics
124(2020).

-        In media: Frankfurter Allgemeine, Bloomberg, Handelsblatt, WSJ,
Bloomberg II, ECB, ECB II, Bundesbank, Bundesbank II, Bundesbank III, Economist,
EU.

"Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," with Olivier
Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA), Quarterly Journal of
Economics 135 (2020), 165–219.

"Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets," with Alan Auerbach and Daniel
Murphy, Link (PDF, NBER), AEA Papers and Proceedings 110(2020): 119-124.

"Culture, Institutions and Democratization," with Gérard Roland, Link (PDF,
NBER, CEPR), Public Choice 187(2021): 165–195.

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Vedomosti. 

"Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States," with Alan
Auerbach and Daniel Murphy, Link (PDF, NBER), IMF Economic Review
68(2020):195–229.

"Does Foreign Entry Spur Innovation?" with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell,
Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR), European Economic Review 121(2020): 103343.

"Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from
Household Data," with Olivier Coibion, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon,
Link (PDF, NBER, IZA, Richmond Fed WP), Journal of European Economic Association
18(2020): 2922–2971.

-        in media: CreditCardBlog, CentralBanking.com, VoxEU, WashingtonPost,
Bank of England. 

"A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," with Byoungchan Lee,
Link (PDF, Appendix; NBER), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
38(2020), 921-933.

"The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," with Olivier
Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, Link (PDF, NBER), Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity 2018 (Fall), 343-434.

-        in media: FT, Equitable Growth Blog, VoxEU, Bank of England, CBPP,
Blanchard, Bernstein, NYT,  ECB, FT, BdF, JEC Congress, Christine Lagarde.

"Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary
Pressures," with Olivier Coibion and Mauricio Ulate, Link (PDF, NBER), American
Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 109 (2019), 465-469.

-        in media: Bloomberg.

"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and
Policy Implications: Reply" with Olivier Coibion and Gee Hee Hong, Link (PDF),
American Economic Review 109(2019), 314-324.

"How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," with  Olivier
Coibion and Saten Kumar, American Economic Review 108(2018), 2671-2713, Link
(PDF,  NBER).

-        in media: Janet Yellen, ECB, ECB II, Bundesbank, Cleveland Fed,
Bundesbank, BdF.

"Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?" with Slavik Sheremirov and
Oleksandr Talavera, Link, (PDF, NBER, Boston Fed WP), Journal of European
Economic Association 16(2018), 1764-1811.

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Berkeley Blog, PBS, Bloomberg, ECB.

"The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," with Olivier
Coibion and Rupal Kamdar, Link (PDF, NBER), Journal of Economic Literature
56(2018), 1447-1491.

"The Responses of Internet Retail Prices to Aggregate Shocks: A High-Frequency
Approach," with Slavik Sheremirov and Oleksandr Talavera, Economics Letters
164(2018), 124-127, Link (PDF).

"Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," with Alan Auerbach, in Fostering a
Dynamic Global Economy, Economic Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole, WY)
Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2017.  Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: FT, Bloomberg, Bloomberg II, Reuters, Daily Mail, SF
Chronicle, Econbrowser, Equitable Growth, Forbes, Economist, Economist II, ECB,
Süddeutsche Zeitung, Süddeutsche Zeitung II, Niskanen.

"Level and Volatility Factors in Macroeconomic Data," with Serena Ng, Journal of
Monetary Economics 91(2017), 52-68, Link, (PDF, NBER).

"Fiscal Multipliers in Japan," with Alan Auerbach, Research in Economics
71(2017), 411-421, Link (PDF, NBER).

"Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S." with Olivier
Coibion, Lorenz Kueng, and John Silvia, Journal of Monetary Economics 88(2017),
70-88, Link (PDF, NBER, IZA, SSRN, IMF).

-        in media: CBS, Handelsblatt, Econbrowser, Econbrowser II, Economist's
View, CentralBanking.com, Economist, Economist II, Economist III, ECB, ECB II,
ECB III, BIS, Slate.com, Financial Times, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
VoxEU.org, Paul Krugman, Berkeley Blog, Bank of England, Bank of England II,
Bank of England III, Handelsblatt II, Bundesbank, Bloomberg.

-        Data: Updated Romer-Romer monetary policy shocks.

"Price setting in online markets: Basic facts, international comparisons, and
cross-border integration," with Oleksandr Talavera, American Economic Review 
107(2017), 217-248, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        In media: VoxEU.org, Berkeley Blog, ECB, ECB II.

"Culture, institutions and the wealth of nations," with Gérard Roland, Review of
Economics and Statistics 99(2017), 402–416, Link (PDF, NBER, CEPR, IZA, SSRN)

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Scientific American

-        Data: Stata dta and do files.

"Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of
Inflation," with Olivier Coibion, Marc Dordal-i-Carreras, and Johannes Wieland,
Annual Review of Economics  (2016), 497–520, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: VoxEU.org, CEA.

"Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market," with Michael Weber,
American Economic Review 106(2016), 165-199, Link (online appendix) (PDF, NBER,
SSRN).

-        in media: Econbrowser, Brad DeLong, The Economist, AEA Blog. 

"Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," with Alan Auerbach, IMF
Economic Review 64(2016), 177-215, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: VoxEU.org. 

"Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms
in New Zealand," with Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion and Saten Kumar, Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity 2015 (Fall), 151-225, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: Financial Times (FT), FT-2, FT-3,Washington Post, Bloomberg,
NZ Herald, CFO, Week, VoxEU, ValueWalk, Bloomberg.

"Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?" with Olivier
Coibion, Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine 223(2015), 6-21, Link.

 

"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework
and New Facts," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Review 105(2015),
2644–2678, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN, IMF).

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Noahpinion blog.

"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and
Policy Implications," with Olivier Coibion and Gee Hee Hong, American Economic
Review 105(2015), 993-1029, Link (PDF, NBER, IMF).

-        in media: Econbrowser.

"Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the
Missing Disinflation," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Journal –
Macroeconomics 7(2015), 197-232, Link (PDF, NBER).

-        in media: Econbrowser, MarginalRevolution, Reuters, VoxEU, Bruegel,
Globe and Mail, ECB, ECB II, ECB III,  ECB IV, ECB V, ECB VI, The Economist,
WSJ, Bank of Canada, Bundesbank, Cleveland Fed, BIS, FT, Bundesbank. 

"When Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers? Evidence from 17 Emerging Market
Economies," with Jan Svejnar and Katherine Terrell, Journal of Comparative
Economics 42(2014), 954-969, Link (PDF, earlier version IZA).

 

"Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence," with
Olivier Coibion and Dmitri Koustas, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall
(2013) link (PDF, NBER, IZA, SSRN)

-        in media: Washington Post, Slate, Business week, Business Insider,
American Enterprise Institute, Al Jazeera, The Economist, Marginal Revolution.

"Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American Economic
Review Papers and Proceedings 103(2013), 141-146. Link (PDF, longer version:
PDF, NBER)

-        in media: VoxEU.org, Slate.

"Financial constraints and innovation: Why poor countries don't catch up," with
Monika Schnitzer, Journal of European Economic Association 11(2013), 1115–1152,
Link (PDF, NBER, IZA).

-        in media: VoxEU.org.

"What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?" with Olivier
Coibion, Journal of Political Economy 120(2012), 116-159. Link (NBER, PDF)

-        in media: VoxEU.org.

"Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?" with Olivier Coibion,
American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 4(2012), 126–162, Link (NBER, SSRN,
PDF)

-        in media: VoxEU.org

"The optimal inflation rate in New Keynesian models," with Olivier Coibion and
Johannes Wieland, Review of Economic Studies 79(2012), 1371-1406, Link (NBER,
SSRN, PDF)

-        in media: Econbrowser, Bundesbank, ECB.

"The Finnish Great Depression: From Russia with love," with Linda Tesar and
Enrique Mendoza, American Economic Review 102(2012), 1619–1644, Link (PDF, NBER,
SSRN, IZA)

-        in media: Slon.

"Estimators for persistent and possibly non-stationary data with classical
properties," with Anna Mikusheva and Serena Ng, Econometric Theory 28(2012),
1003–1036, Link (NBER, PDF).

"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," with Alan Auerbach, in Fiscal
Policy after the Financial Crisis, Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, eds.,
University of Chicago Press, 2012. PDF.

-        in media: Bloomberg.

"Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," with Alan Auerbach, American
Economic Journal – Economic Policy 4(2012), 1–27, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN.).

-        award: AEJ: Economic Policy Best Paper Prize, 2015, American Economic
Association.

-        in media: VoxEU.org, International Business Times, The Economist,
Econbrowser, Jeff Frankel, Econbrowser II, New York Times, Economic Report of
the President.

"Sensitivity of Prices to Demand Shocks: A Natural Experiment in the San
Francisco Bay Area," with Volodymyr Bilotkach and Oleksandr Talavera,
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 46(2012), 1137–1151, Link
(PDF).

“Individualism, innovation, and long-run growth,” with Gérard Roland,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(S4, 2011), 21316-21319,
Link.

 

"Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative
Interpretation," with Olivier Coibion, American Economic Review 101(2011),
341–370, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN)

-        in media: DeLong; VoxEU.org, Bundesbank. 

"Strategic interaction among heterogeneous price-setters in an estimated DSGE
model," with Olivier Coibion, Review of Economics and Statistics 93(2011),
920-40, Link (NBER, SSRN, PDF)

"Which dimensions of culture matter for long run growth?" with Gérard Roland,
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 101(2011), 492-498, Link (PDF)

-        in media: MIT Management Review.

"Myth and reality of flat tax reform: Micro estimates of tax evasion and
productivity response in Russia," with Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Klara
Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Political Economy 117(2009), 504-554, Link (SSRN,
NBER, IZA).

-        in media: WSJ; VoxEU.org; Guardian.

"Estimation of DSGE models when data are persistent," with Serena Ng, Journal of
Monetary Economics 57(2010), 325–340, Link (PDF, NBER, SSRN)

-        in media: Econbrowser.

"Globalization and innovation in emerging markets," with Jan Svejnar and
Katherine Terrell, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 2(2010), 194–226,
Link (PDF, NBER, IZA)

-        in media: MIT Sloan Management Review.

"Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel
Data on Consumption and Income," with Dmitriy Stolyarov and Klara Sabirianova
Peter, Review of Economic Dynamics 13(2010), 209-237, Link (NBER, SSRN, IZA).

-        in media: Vedomosti (in Russian).

"Border effect or country effect? Seattle may not be so far from Vancouver after
all," with Linda Tesar, American Economic Journal – Macroeconomics 1(2009),
219–241, Link (NBER, SSRN)

-        previous title: "Re-examination of the Border Effect in PPP Tests:
Where is the Border?"

"Are Airlines’ Price-Setting Strategies Different?" with Volodymyr Bilotkach and
Oleksandr Talavera, Journal of Air Transport Management 16(2009), 1-6, Link
(SSRN).

"Financial Constraints and Continental Business Groups: Evidence from German
Konzerns," with Dorothea Schafer and Oleksandr Talavera, Research in
International Business and Finance 23(2009), 233–242, Link (SSRN).

"Are oligarchs productive? Theory and evidence," with Yegor Grygorenko, Journal
of Comparative Economics 36(2008), 17-42, Link (SSRN, IZA).

-        award: Montias prize for the best article published in the Journal of
Comparative Economics in 2008-2009.

-        in media: Guardian.

"Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth
gamble of the 1990s," with Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of Monetary Economics
54(4), 1132-1162. Link (SSRN, NBER).

-        in media: WSJ.

"Public sector pay and corruption: Measuring bribery from micro data," with
Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of Public Economics 91(2007), 963-991. Link
(SSRN, IZA).

-        in media: World Bank’s Beyond Transition 17(3).

"Returns to schooling in Ukraine and Russia: A semiparametric approach to
cross-country comparative analysis," with Klara Sabirianova Peter, Journal of
Comparative Economics 33(2005), 223-240. Link (SSRN, IZA).


WORKING PAPERS

"The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and
Actions," with Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Geoff Kenny, PDF
(NBER, CEPR, IZA)

"Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings," with Xiao Yin, PDF (NBER, CEPR,
IZA)

"SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms,"
with Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Timo Reinelt,
PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA, ECB)

"On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations," with
Valerie Boctor, Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER)

"Keeping up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs
and Happiness," with Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, and
Maarten van Rooij, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)

"Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab," with
Isabelle Salle, Olivier Coibion, PDF (NBER, CEPR, IZA)

"Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public
Communication," with Damiano Sandri, Francesco Grigoli, Olivier Coibion, PDF
(NBER, CEPR)

"Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance," with Bernardo
Candia, Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA)

"Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence,"
with Olivier Coibion and Tiziano Ropele, PDF (NBER, IZA) (revise and resubmit in
Review of Economic Studies)

"Demand Stimulus as Social Policy," with Alan Auerbach and Dan Murphy, PDF
(NBER,  IZA) (revise and resubmit in Review of Economic Studies)

"Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from
a Survey of Israeli Firms," (with Ari Kutai and Rafi Melnick), PDF (NBER, IZA)
(revise and resubmit at AEJ Macroeconomics).

-        In media:  Economist.

"Expectations Formation and Forward Information," with Nathan Goldstein, PDF
(NBER, CEPR) (revise and resubmit in Review of Economic Studies)

 

"Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," with Dmitriy Sergeyev, PDF (NBER,
CEPR, IZA)

 

"Fiscal Policy and Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a
Randomized Control Trial," with Olivier Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER,
IZA, BFI)

-        In media:  WJS

"Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes," with Olivier Coibion
and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)

-        In media: VoxEU, Houston Chronicle, John Cochrane, Chicago Booth
Review.

"How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?" with Olivier Coibion and
Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)

-        In media: Economist, VoxEU, NBER, Washington Post, NYT, WSJ.

"Labor Markets during the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," with Olivier
Coibion and Michael Weber, PDF (NBER, IZA, BFI)

-        In media: VoxEU, IZA, Quartz, Politico, Yahoo, MSN.Money, Bloomberg,
MarketWatch, Hill, Narayana Kocherlakota, AARP, NYT, ERP.

"Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm
Characteristics and Managerial Decisions," with Debora Revoltella, Jan Svejnar,
and Christoph Weiss, PDF (NBER, IZA, CEPR) (revise and resubmit at AEJ
Macroeconomics).

-        in media: NBER Digest.

"Linkages and Economic Development," with Dominick Bartelme, PDF (NBER).

"Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," PDF (NBER)
(revise and resubmit at Journal of Monetary Economics).

"Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," with Jae Song and Dmitriy
Stolyarov, PDF (MRRC, NBER, IZA).

"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital Utilization," with
Matthew D. Shapiro, US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Discussion
Paper 11-18 (July 2011).  PDF, data.

"Using firm optimization to evaluate and estimate productivity and returns to
scale," PDF (NBER).

-        previous title: "Estimating Returns to Scale: Critique of Popular
Estimators and New Solutions to Old Problems".

"Reduced rank identification of structural shocks in VARs," PDF.

 


PUBLICATIONS IN UKRAINIAN

Books

Contemporary econometric methods in finance, Kiev, Ukraine, 2002 (with Iryna
Luckyanenko)

Econometric modeling of local government budgets, Kiev, Ukraine, 2001 (with
Iryna Lukyanenko and Larisa Krasnikova)

Methodological aspects of development and application of macroeconometric
models: The case of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine, 2000 (with Iryna Lukyanenko and
Kwaja Sultan)

 

Articles

"Error correction models for forecasting tax revenues," Finance of Ukraine, 2001
(with Iryna Lukyanenko)

"The impact of tax sharing on the effectiveness of the local tax policy,"
Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, 2001 (with Taras Tokarchuk)

"The flypaper effect: The case of Ukraine," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla
Academy, 2001

"Modeling monetary side of Ukraine's economy," Scientific Records of Kyiv-Mohyla
Academy, 2000 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)

"Distribution of intergovernmental grants among Ukraine's regions," Herald of
the National Bank of Ukraine, 1999 (with Iryna Lukyanenko)

 

Chapters

"Inter-budgetary reform in Cherkaska oblast" in The system of public finance in
Ukraine: The ways of providing transparency and optimal decentralization of
financial flows, Ihor Burakovskiy, ed., Kiev: East-West Institute, 2001.