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BIDEN VS. TRUMP: WHO IS LEADING THE POLLS?

By Jason Lange
July 17, 202412:04 AM GMT+2Updated 4 min ago
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Item 1 of 2 Combination picture showing former U.S. President Donald Trump
attending the Trump Organization civil fraud trial, in New York State Supreme
Court in the Manhattan borough of New York City, U.S., November 6, 2023 and U.S.
President Joe Biden participating in a meeting with Italy's Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., March
1, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid and Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
[1/2]Combination picture showing former U.S. President Donald Trump attending
the Trump Organization civil fraud trial, in New York State Supreme Court in the
Manhattan borough of New York City, U.S., November 6, 2023 and U.S. President
Joe Biden participating in a meeting with Italy's Prime Minister... Purchase
Licensing Rights, opens new tab Read more

WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump
this week opened up a marginal lead over the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, a
sign that the race to win the November electionremains extremely close following
an assassination attempt against Trump, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Trump had 43% of the support of registered voters in the two-day poll which
closed on Tuesday, compared to 41% support for Biden. Trump's 2 percentage point
advantage was within the poll's 3 point margin of error, suggesting that voter
preferences had not shifted substantially after Trump narrowly avoided death on
Saturday when a would-be assassin's bullet grazed his ear as he spoke at a
campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 1-2 showed Trump and Biden tied with
40% support each.
The attempt on Trump's life led to an outpouring of support for the Republican,
including booming cheers from rally-goers on Saturday when he defiantly pumped
his fist in the air and mouthed the words "Fight! Fight! Fight!" as he was
rushed offstage with blood on his face.
The poll, which was conducted online and gathered responses from 1,202 U.S.
adults nationwide, also showed four in five Americans fear the country is
sliding into chaos.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

But the poll shows that despite the assassination attempt, and before it, nearly
two weeks of Democratic Party turmoil following Biden's halting performance in a
June 27 debate, the broad contours of the race have not changed, with Trump so
far not building a significant lead, even as fewer voters appear to be on the
fence about their choices.
Some 15% of registered voters in the latest poll said they weren't sure who they
would vote for, or that they might vote for a third party-candidate or not at
all. In the prior poll, these on-the-fence voters added up to 20%.

When independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. was included as an option in the
latest poll, Trump led Biden 40% to 39% with Kennedy garnering 11%, largely
unchanged from a poll conducted in June. Kennedy has yet to qualify to appear on
the ballot in many states.
Other polls have shown Trump with advantages in several battleground states,
however, and Biden has come under pressure to quit his campaign. Some 40% of
registered Democrats in the latest poll said Biden should drop out of the race,
something he has pledged not to do.

Both candidates carry significant liabilities. For Biden, these include concerns
about his age. At 81, he is the oldest sitting president ever.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 28% of registered voters agreed with a
statement that Biden "is mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges."
Forty-nine percent said the same of Trump, 78, who if elected in November would
also be one of the oldest presidents in U.S. history.

Trump in May became the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime, whether
in office or after leaving the White House.
He faces potential prison time after a jury found him guilty of 34 charges
stemming from a hush money payment to an adult film actress before the 2016
presidential election.
But he won a significant legal victory this week when a federal judge in Florida
threw out a criminal case against him on charges of illegally retaining
classified documents after leaving the White House.

Get weekly news and analysis on the U.S. elections and how it matters to the
world with the newsletter On the Campaign Trail. Sign up here.

Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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