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2024 Trends
|
Part 1


THE MACRO MARKET & WORKPLACE REALITIES



2024 promises to be a year of new strategies amid an ongoing human capital
shortage, the continued maturing of AI, and an evolving workforce. In this first
part of our trends report, the MBO Partners leadership team weighed in on these
and other critical aspects of today's workforce.

The Macro Market


 * AI Continues to Grow
 * The Recession Market Evaporates
 * Human Capital Scarcity Continues


Workplace Realities


 * AI Works as a Colleague
 * Remote Work is Here to Stay
 * Data-Based Decision-Making Is Taking Hold
 * Diversity is a Business Imperative
 * Side Hustles Reign Supreme



THE MACRO MARKET

In terms of the workforce, all industries and business sectors see three issues:
a human capital shortage, a recession that hasn't materialized, and the reality
of artificial intelligence (AI).

AI CONTINUES TO GROW

January predictions often claim that the coming year will be remarkable. As far
as AI goes, 2024 does promise to be a turning point year for business. Just as
leaders scratched their heads over desktop computers in the 1980s and then the
internet ten years later, many companies are figuring out the best use of AI.
And like its predecessors, it is shaking things up big time.

We will see AI become table stakes in 2024. Any enterprise that doesn't
incorporate AI effectively into the business will drastically shrink its
competitive footprint. In terms of the workforce, the time has come to determine
how AI sits in relation to employees and contingent labor. Can it supplement the
workforce?



On the talent side, 47% of independent professionals who responded to our State
of Independence survey are either very or somewhat familiar with AI.
Independents who fail to position themselves favorably relative to AI will have
a more challenging time getting engagements with enterprise clients. The good
news is that contractors with knowledge of AI as a business tool can augment
their businesses by offering consultative services to companies that want to
implement AI but aren't sure how.

THE RECESSION MARKET EVAPORATES

I'm quite bullish on the potential for a strong 2024 as it relates to the need
for independent talent. The US economy will ramp up this year, increasing the
demand for human capital, particularly independent workers.

Miles Everson, Chief Executive Officer

The media-manufactured doom and gloom about a recession that never materialized
created a lot of uncertainty across US industries in 2023. Still, interest rates
remained high, access to capital was still constrained, and uncertainty
lingered. Companies don't like uncertainty, and most leaders took a careful
approach in 2023 as they waited for the predicted economic calamity.

Though the recession was more fiction than fact, enterprises are still likely to
be wary of stepping out too far too fast. The economy may be choppy, and leaders
will want to keep their options open. This means that the use of contingent
labor will continue to increase in 2024. In Q1, we expect to see companies in
some sectors allocate budgets for the engagement of high-end independent
contractors with business-critical skill sets. Across the board, independent
talent engagement is likely to take place in earnest starting in Q2.

Enterprises can get a running start in Q1 by determining the business-critical
skills needed from high-end independent talent and successfully engaging the
right people.

HUMAN CAPITAL SCARCITY CONTINUES

The apparent scarcity of human capital in the US today is rooted in four
factors:

 * 1 Job tenure has declined, particularly in the under-45 worker population.
   The higher turnover creates a revolving door for enterprises as they must
   continuously fill the same roles.
 * 2 Though it has now evened out, the birthrate has steadily declined by half
   over the past 70 years. The result is that the number of new people entering
   the workforce is at one of the lowest levels. if not the lowest, in US labor
   history.
 * 3 At the other end of the age scale, the oldest generation of workers is
   retiring.
 * 4 The impact of COVID-19 on death and disability claims in the US workforce
   has been significant. The pandemic led to an increase in both mortality and
   morbidity, affecting individuals' health and, consequently, their ability to
   work.

BIRTHRATE OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS






To deal effectively with this issue, leaders must take the time to understand
human capital macro trends and appreciate that a strategy that worked in the
past will not take them forward into the future because they will not have
enough employees. In fact, the perception of human capital scarcity is due in
large part to enterprises' traditional approach to talent acquisition-that is,
that "talent" means employees. To find the people and skills they need to grow
the enterprise, they must create a total workforce strategy that includes
independent talent.

WORKPLACE REALITIES

The dust is settling on work topics like AI and remote work as controversy
recedes and action is taken. As enterprises and workers adopt strategies and
tactics that pave the way to the workplace of the future, these are some of the
realities in today's workplace.

AI WORKS AS A COLLEAGUE

Our clients are deeply invested in how to best leverage the power of AI into
their future of work strategies. The savviest enterprises are already tapping
into independent professionals – the ultimate resource well for in-demand
professionals – to guide their ever-evolving work plans and strategies and
building strategic talent pools and benches to serve future needs.

David Cassar, Chief Revenue Officer

Our data shows that while people are aware of AI, particularly generative AI
(e.g., ChatGPT and MidJourney), nobody seems afraid that it's going to take
their job. Rather, many workers, both employees and independent contractors, use
AI as a "colleague." Most are Millennials or the digital-native Gen Zs, whose
digital tools have always been integral to daily life.

With the right prompt, generative AI can accomplish tasks in minutes (or
seconds) that require hours (or days) for humans to accomplish. The roles it
plays in today's workforce include:


 * RESEARCH ASSISTANT
   
   AI excels at using the internet to assist in researching a human-directed
   topic.
   
   


 * BRAINSTORMING PARTNER
   
   Generative AI can spark creativity by generating suggestions spark ideation.
   
   


 * IDEA TESTER
   
   AI can scrape the entire internet to test your idea against what already
   exists.
   
   


 * ADVISOR
   
   AI can help identify challenges or do SWOT analyses to unearth potential
   flaws in ideas or potential strategies.
   
   


 * MARKETING PARTNER
   
   Independent professionals and job seekers can use AI to fine-tune their
   resumes on specific roles and jobs.
   
   

All of these roles are additive rather than supplantive, and workers are
becoming increasingly adept at using AI as an indispensable tool to produce
excellent outcomes.

REMOTE WORK IS HERE TO STAY

The genie is out of the bottle. Before the pandemic, remote work was already a
common model in some business sectors. When lockdown hit the workplace,
suddenly, everyone was at home, and all companies had to figure out how to make
that work.

Try as they might to turn the ship around and get everyone back into the office,
many companies will not see a return to their pre-pandemic status quo. It's time
to brace or embrace: As they mandate or try to incentivize return to physical
workplaces, they are getting pushback from workers. Basically, there are two
choices:

 * 1 Brace for higher turnover as employees go independent or move to jobs that
   support remote work.
 * 2 Embrace remote and hybrid models and make them part of how work gets done.

In either case, companies need to be able to ramp up people and help them get
things done with minimal human assistance. It will be critical to give employees
and contractors the ability to self-serve for onboarding as well as for getting
their work done. As a result, by using AI, the way knowledge is managed will be
disrupted this year, largely because of the attempt to force people back to the
office.

DATA-BASED DECISION-MAKING IS TAKING HOLD  



Decision-making based on data is fast becoming the only way to build and achieve
goals in the enterprise. Data assists us with our tasks, drives activity, and
drives business. Even veterans who used to do business based on experience and
instinct are turning to data for decisions. Because they are accustomed to
making data-based decisions from childhood, data-driven actions are easy for
younger workers to adopt.

Therefore, bolstered by AI, we will start seeing data-based decision-making
become the norm in all business areas.



DIVERSITY IS A BUSINESS IMPERATIVE

Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs are part of most, if not all,
enterprise HR functions today. with the workforce must be inclusive on multiple
fronts, and not limited only to employees. Many companies focus their HR
departments on how to implement DEI initiatives for their employees, but they
forget that their contract workforce is equally important.

If you don't consider your extended workforce as important or more important
than your full-time workforce, you're missing the boat. Successful enterprises
become both an Employer of Choice and a Client of Choice for their independent
contractors through practical and effective DEI activities.

SIDE HUSTLES REIGN SUPREME

Our 2023 State of Independence research revealed that the number of people (36.6
million) who earn money periodically through independent work at least monthly
doubled over 2022. Along with part-time independents, this population represents
a valuable skill set and opportunity for enterprises. This population will
continue to increase, and organizations need to find ways to tap into these
workers to fill specific need slots. Talent who are supplementing their primary
employment with part-time or occasional independent work need to figure out how
to balance work and life to avoid burnout.

INDEPENDENTS IN AMERICA (BY TYPE OF WORKER)

INDEPENDENTS IN AMERICA
(BY TYPE OF WORKER)

(DATA IN MILLIONS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)



IN CONCLUSION

Market and workplace realities point to the likelihood that coming into 2024,
enterprises are underusing the skill pool available to them. Including a remote
work model, powering up the DEI program, and facilitating AI to augment work
results are three ways to tap needed skills better. Robust deployment of
independent talent, including the occasional independents whose side hustles
match your needs, will further power up your workforce.

Part 2 of our trends report offers further insights into 2024 with
recommendations to position the enterprise to succeed in the future of work.

Read Part 2

THANK YOU TO THE MEMBERS OF MBO'S LEADERSHIP WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS REPORT

MILES EVERSON

Chief Executive Officer

JOHN DAHLBERG

SVP, Data Strategy and Governance

AUDRA NICHOLS

Chief Operating Officer

JOHN MARCANTONIO

Chief Product Engineering Officer

BOB LUCAS

SVP, Corporate Development

KEATON SWETT

VP, Product

CORI MCKEE

VP, Enterprise Solutions

KRISTIAN RAYNER

Director, Enterprise Sales

DAVE CASSAR

Chief Revenue Officer

MCLEAN ROBBINS

VP, Marketing

FERNANDO CARDENAS

Chief Technology Officer

MICK LEE

Chief Administrative Officer

HOLLY KEHRER

VP, Enterprise Solutions

THOMAS LUTRELL

Chief Financial Officer

THANK YOU TO THE MEMBERS OF MBO'S LEADERSHIP WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS REPORT

MILES EVERSON

Chief Executive Officer

BOB LUCAS

SVP, Corporate Development

DAVE CASSAR

Chief Revenue Officer

HOLLY KEHRER

VP, Enterprise Solutions

JOHN MARCANTONIO

Chief Product Engineering Officer

KRISTIAN RAYNER

Director, Enterprise Sales

MICK LEE

Chief Administrative Officer

AUDRA NICHOLS

Chief Operating Officer

CORI MCKEE

VP, Enterprise Solutions

FERNANDO CARDENAS

Chief Technology Officer

JOHN DAHLBERG

SVP, Data Strategy
and Governance

KEATON SWETT

VP, Product

MCLEAN ROBBINS

VP, Marketing

THOMAS LUTRELL

Chief Financial Officer



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