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WHERE DOES THE PLASTIC IN OUR OCEANS COME FROM?


WHICH COUNTRIES AND RIVERS EMIT THE MOST PLASTIC TO THE OCEAN? WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN FOR SOLUTIONS TO TACKLE PLASTIC POLLUTION?

By: Hannah Ritchie
May 1, 2021
Cite this articleReuse our work freely

Most of the plastic in our oceans comes from land-based sources: by weight, 70%
to 80% is plastic that is transported from land to the sea via rivers or
coastlines.1 The other 20% to 30% comes from marine sources such as fishing
nets, lines, ropes, and abandoned vessels.2

If we want to tackle plastic pollution we need to stop it from entering the
ocean from our rivers. The problem is that we have hundreds of thousands of
river outlets through which plastics reach the oceans. To prioritize mitigation
efforts we need to understand which of these rivers transport plastic to the
sea, and which ones contribute the most.

In this article we look at the distribution of plastics across the world’s
rivers; why some rivers carry a lot of plastics while others have very little;
and which countries account for the largest share of plastic pollution.


PREVIOUS RESEARCH SUGGESTED THAT ONLY A HANDFUL OF RIVERS TRANSPORTS ALMOST ALL
OF THE PLASTIC TO THE SEA – NEW RESEARCH SUGGESTS THIS IS NOT THE CASE

Previous studies suggested that most plastics come from only a few of the
world’s rivers: one study estimated that the top ten rivers were responsible for
50% to 60%; another for more than 90%.3

The latest research, which was just published in Science Advances, updates our
understanding of how these plastics are distributed.4 Lourens Meijer et al.
(2021) developed higher-resolution modeling of global riverine plastics. They
found that rivers emitted around 1 million tonnes of plastics into the oceans in
2015 (with an uncertainty ranging from 0.8 to 2.7 million tonnes). Around
one-third of the 100,000 river outlets that they modeled contributed to this.
The other two-thirds emitted almost no plastic to the ocean. It’s an important
point because we might think that most, if not all, rivers are contributing to
the problem. This is not the case.

But, importantly, the latest research suggests that smaller rivers play a much
larger role than previously thought. In the chart we see the comparison of the
latest research (in red) with the two earlier studies which mapped global
riverine inputs. This chart shows how many of the top-emitting rivers (on the
x-axis) make up a given percentage of plastic inputs (y-axis). Note that the
number of rivers on the x-axis is given on a logarithmic scale.

We see that the latest research suggests that the top ten emitting rivers
contribute a much smaller amount than previously thought: just 18% of plastics
compared to 56% and 91% from previous studies. And to account for 80% of river
plastics we need to include the top 1,656 rivers. This compares to previous
studies which suggested the largest five or 162 rivers were responsible for 80%.

This makes a massive difference to how we tackle plastic pollution. If five
rivers were responsible for most of the problem then we should focus the
majority of our efforts there. A targeted approach. But if this comprises
thousands of rivers we’re going to need to cast a much wider net of mitigation
efforts.

Why are the latest results so different? The earlier studies relied on simpler
models of waste generation within the world’s river basins. They took
assessments of the amount of mismanaged waste generated in each basin;
population density in the area; and correlative models of plastic concentrations
in surface rivers. They then used these relationships to model the amount of
pollution from basins where recorded data on river plastics was not available.
This meant that the biggest emitters were believed to be the very large river
basins home to large populations and poor waste management practices. The
Yangtze, Xi, and Huangpu rivers in China; the Ganges in India; Cross in Nigeria;
and the Amazon in Brazil were the big rivers that topped the list.5

The latest analysis builds on this earlier research with much higher-resolution
data. It models the deterministic drivers of how plastic is transported using
wind and precipitation patterns and river discharge data – plus factors that
affect the probability of plastic first entering rivers, then entering the ocean
such as the proximity of populations to the river; distance to the ocean; the
slope of the terrain, and types of land use. This higher-resolution data was
based on several years of research and calibrations of these models across 66
rivers in 14 countries.

This higher-resolution data shows that these factors that affect the probability
of plastics not only reaching the river but then also reaching the ocean play a
much more important role than the size of the river basin itself. This means
many smaller rivers play a bigger role than we thought.


WHICH RIVERS EMIT THE MOST PLASTIC TO THE OCEAN?

To tackle plastic pollution we need to know what rivers these plastics are
coming from. It also helps if we understand why these rivers emit so much.

Most of the world’s largest emitting rivers are in Asia, with some also in East
Africa and the Caribbean. In the chart we see the ten largest contributors. This
is shown as each river’s share of the global total. You can explore the data on
the top 50 rivers using the +Add river button on the chart.6

Seven of the top ten rivers are in the Philippines. Two are in India, and one in
Malaysia. The Pasig River in the Philippines alone accounts for 6.4% of global
river plastics. This paints a very different picture to earlier studies where it
was Asia’s largest rivers – the Yangtze, Xi, and Huangpu rivers in China, and
Ganges in India – that were dominant.

Click to open interactive version

What are the characteristics of the largest emitting rivers?

First, plastic pollution is dominant where the local waste management practices
are poor. This means there is a large amount of mismanaged plastic waste that
can enter rivers and the ocean in the first place. This makes clear that
improving waste management is essential if we’re to tackle plastic pollution.
Second, the largest emitters tend to have cities nearby: this means there are a
lot of paved surfaces where both water and plastic can drain into river outlets.
Cities such as Jakarta in Indonesia and Manila in the Philippines are drained by
relatively small rivers but account for a large share of plastic emissions.
Third, the river basins had high precipitation rates (meaning plastics washed
into rivers, and the flow rate of rivers to the ocean was high). Fourth,
distance matters: the largest emitting rivers had cities nearby and were also
very close to the coast.

The authors of the study illustrate the importance of the additional climate,
basin terrain, and proximity factors with a real-life example. The Ciliwung
River basin in Java is 275 times smaller than the Rhine river basin in Europe
and generates 75% less plastic waste. Yet it emits 100 times as much plastic to
the ocean each year (200 to 300 tonnes versus only 3 to 5 tonnes).7 The Ciliwung
River emits much more plastic to the ocean, despite being much smaller because
the basin’s waste is generated very close to the river (meaning the plastic gets
into the river network in the first place) and the river network is also much
closer to the ocean. It also gets much more rainfall meaning the plastic waste
is more easily transported than in the Rhine basin.

If you want to explore the plastic inputs from each of the world’s rivers, the
Ocean Cleanup Project provides a beautiful interactive map where you can see
this in more detail.


WHICH COUNTRIES EMIT THE MOST PLASTIC TO THE OCEAN?


ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 81% OF GLOBAL PLASTIC INPUTS TO THE OCEAN

We’ve looked at the role of individual rivers, but how do these aggregate at the
regional and country-level? Which countries emit the most plastic to the ocean?

In the chart we see the breakdown of global plastic inputs to the ocean by
region.

81% of ocean plastics are emitted from Asia. The fact that a disproportionate
amount of plastic pollution comes from Asia is consistent with previous
research. Earlier studies estimated its share in 2010 was 86%.5

This should also not surprise us given the fact that Asia is the world’s most
populous region (home to 60% of the world population); plus all of the top ten
emitting rivers were in Asia (Philippines, India, and Malaysia), and most of the
top 50. Africa was responsible for 8%; South America for 5.5%; North America for
4.5%; and Europe and Oceania combined were less than 1%.

Click to open interactive version


MORE THAN ONE-THIRD OF OCEAN PLASTIC INPUTS COME FROM THE PHILIPPINES

The distribution of plastic inputs is reflected on the world map. There we see
each country’s share of global plastic emissions.

The Philippines accounts for more than one-third (36%) of plastic inputs –
unsurprising given the fact that it’s home to seven of the top ten rivers. This
is because the Philippines consists of many small islands where the majority of
the population lives near the coast. But it’s an important update on our
previous understanding of where China and India were thought to dominate. India
accounts for 13%, and China for 7%.

Click to open interactive version

People often find this global distribution surprising. Since consumers in rich
countries tend to use a lot more plastic people expect that they contribute a
lot more to plastic pollution than they actually do. And it’s not just about
population size: even on a per capita basis, rich countries contribute very
little plastic to the ocean. European countries, for example, emit less than 0.1
kilograms of plastic per person. This compares to 3.5 kilograms in the
Philippines or 2.4 kilograms in Malaysia.

This relationship is shown on the scatterplot here: on the y-axis, we have per
capita plastics emitted to the ocean, and on the x-axis, we have GDP per capita.
We see the largest per capita contributors tend to lie in the middle of the
income distribution.

Click to open interactive version


WHAT DETERMINES EACH COUNTRY'S CONTRIBUTION TO OCEAN PLASTICS?

We can understand what determines each country’s contribution through three
steps.

First, the amount of plastic waste that each country generates in the first
place. Rich countries produce much more plastic waste per person than poorer
countries. Most produce 0.2 to 0.5 kilograms per person per day.8 This compares
to 0.01 in India or 0.07 kilograms in the Philippines. Even when we multiply by
population (giving us total plastic waste generation), rich countries generate a
lot. The UK, for example, generates twice as much plastic waste as the
Philippines.

Second, how this plastic waste is managed. Plastic will only enter rivers and
the ocean if it’s poorly managed. In rich countries, nearly all of its plastic
waste is incinerated, recycled, or sent to well-managed landfills. It’s not left
open to the surrounding environment. Low-to-middle income countries tend to have
poorer waste management infrastructure. Waste can be dumped outside of
landfills, and landfills that do exist are often open, leaking waste to the
surrounding environment. Mismanaged waste in low-to-middle income countries is
therefore much higher.

Per capita mismanaged waste in the Philippines is 100 times higher than in the
UK. When we multiply by population (giving us each country’s total), India,
China, the Philippines, Brazil, and Nigeria top the list. Each country's share
of global mismanaged waste is shown in the map.

Click to open interactive version

Third – and this is where this recent research improves our understanding – is
the probability that this mismanaged plastic waste reaches river networks, and
then the ocean. The climate, terrain, land use, and distances within river
basins affect the probability that mismanaged plastic waste is emitted to the
ocean.

The probability of mismanaged plastic waste entering the ocean by country is
shown in the chart. This probability is much higher in countries such as the
Philippines (a 7% probability); Malaysia (4.4%); and Sri Lanka (3.4%) than China
(0.2%) or India (0.5%). This is why smaller rivers in these countries play a
larger role than we might assume.

Click to open interactive version


TO TACKLE PLASTIC POLLUTION WE NEED TO KNOW WHERE IT’S COMING FROM

Identifying where plastic emissions are coming from really matters for how we
tackle it. Rich countries emit very little – this means domestic strategies to
reduce plastics in these countries will not make much difference to ocean
plastics. What rich countries can do is support low-to-middle income countries
in improving waste management infrastructure. Improving waste management is a
solution that very few people get excited about. But it’s absolutely key to
tackling plastic pollution. And, importantly, they can ban the export of any
plastics to other countries where it could be mismanaged.

Understanding the distribution of emissions across the world’s rivers is also
crucial. Our strategy for tackling this problem is vastly different if we only
have to focus on a few or even tens of the world’s largest rivers (as previous
studies suggested) versus thousands of smaller ones.

To stop plastic pollution in our oceans we need a global approach to reducing
plastic waste and managing it appropriately to stop it leaking into the natural
environment. Focusing on a few rivers will not be enough.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Lourens Meijer for providing feedback on this article.


ENDNOTES

 1. Li, W. C., Tse, H. F., & Fok, L. (2016). Plastic waste in the marine
    environment: A review of sources, occurrence and effects. Science of the
    Total Environment, 566, 333-349.
    
    Lebreton, L., Slat, B., Ferrari, F., Sainte-Rose, B., Aitken, J., Marthouse,
    R., … & Noble, K. (2018). Evidence that the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is
    rapidly accumulating plastic. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 4666.

 2. In certain locations, the share that comes from marine sources can be
    higher. For example, it’s estimated that plastic lines, ropes and fishing
    nets make up 52% of the plastic mass in the ‘Great Pacific Garbage Patch’
    (GPGP).
    
    Lebreton, L., Slat, B., Ferrari, F., Sainte-Rose, B., Aitken, J., Marthouse,
    R., … & Noble, K. (2018). Evidence that the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is
    rapidly accumulating plastic. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 4666.

 3. Lebreton, L. C., Van der Zwet, J., Damsteeg, J. W., Slat, B., Andrady, A., &
    Reisser, J. (2017). River plastic emissions to the world’s oceans. Nature
    Communications, 8, 15611.
    
    Schmidt, C., Krauth, T., & Wagner, S. (2017). Export of plastic debris by
    rivers into the sea. Environmental Science & Technology, 51(21),
    12246-12253.

 4. Meijer, J.J.L, Emmerik, T., Ent, R., Schmidt, C., Lebreton, L. (2021). More
    than 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into
    the ocean. Science Advances.

 5. Lebreton, L. C., Van der Zwet, J., Damsteeg, J. W., Slat, B., Andrady, A., &
    Reisser, J. (2017). River plastic emissions to the world’s oceans. Nature
    Communications, 8, 15611.

 6. Note that for individual rivers the confidence interval can be large, and
    estimates can vary from model predictions.

 7. The Ciliwung River emitted between 205 and 308 tonnes per year. The Rhine
    emitted 3 to 5 tonnes per year.

 8. Jambeck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M.,
    Andrady, A., ... & Law, K. L. (2015). Plastic waste inputs from land into
    the ocean. Science, 347(6223), 768-771.


CITE THIS WORK

Our articles and data visualizations rely on work from many different people and
organizations. When citing this article, please also cite the underlying data
sources. This article can be cited as:

Hannah Ritchie (2021) - “Where does the plastic in our oceans come from?” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics' [Online Resource]

BibTeX citation

@article{owid-ocean-plastics,
    author = {Hannah Ritchie},
    title = {Where does the plastic in our oceans come from?},
    journal = {Our World in Data},
    year = {2021},
    note = {https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics}
}


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