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Submission: On November 28 via manual from DE — Scanned from US
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Neuroscience
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Zoology
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* Environment
THE NEW CLIMATE MATH ON HURRICANES
For the first time, we can calculate how much climate change impacts a single
storm’s severity.
* By Syris Valentine
* November 27, 2024
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When Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida’s shoulder earlier this fall, it
brought the largest storm surge ever recorded in the area. The storm had formed
just four days earlier as a tropical depression, but when it made landfall, it
was already a Category 4 storm, lashing the Tampa Bay area with savage winds and
rain, flooding and laying waste to whole communities. Two weeks later, Hurricane
Milton deepened the tragedy when it hit the Florida peninsula, unleashing
catastrophic flooding and 100-mile-per-hour gusts, killing multiple people, and
breaking meteorological records.
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Climate scientists have been warning for years that climate change will—and
already is—supercharging storms broadly speaking. But connecting specific rates
of warming to the ferocity of specific storms was out of reach. Now a team of
scientists has developed a model that, for the first time, allows them to
calculate how warming ocean temperatures have contributed directly to wind
speeds in individual hurricanes. Using this model, they were able to determine,
for instance, that climate change bumped Hurricane Rafael earlier this month up
two whole categories (from 1 to 3) and pushed another two hurricanes this year
into category 5, the highest category, in which wind speeds exceed 157 mph.
“It’s really the evolution of our science on sea surface temperature attribution
that has allowed this work to take place,” Daniel Gilford, an atmospheric
scientist with the independent nonprofit research outfit Climate Central and the
lead author of the study said in a press briefing. Gilford and his colleagues
found that due to higher sea surface temperatures, maximum wind speeds were 19
mph higher on average in 84 percent of the hurricanes in the north Atlantic that
occurred between 2019 and 2023, and, according to an additional analysis, most
all hurricanes thus far in 2024 as well—enough to elevate them an entire
category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Moreover, global warming caused wind
speeds in three of the hurricanes to course roughly 34 mph faster than they
would have otherwise.
> When storms double their wind speed, they can cause 256 times as much damage.
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To make these calculations, Gilford and his team first determined how much
cooler the surface of the sea would be without human-induced climate change.
“Climate models and observations are both showing us that, in a world without
climate change, temperatures would be somewhere between 2 to 3 degrees
Fahrenheit cooler,” Gilford said. Because the intensity of a hurricane is
determined foremost by the temperature of the seas over which it passes, Gilford
and team used the pre-warming sea surface temperatures to determine the maximum
wind speeds that any particular hurricane theoretically would have reached
without climate change. From there, they used statistical relationships gleaned
from past hurricane seasons to estimate what the wind speeds might have been
without warming. They could then compare these numbers against the speeds that
were actually recorded to determine how much climate change likely ramped up the
intensity.
Friederike Otto, a climatologist with World Weather Attribution, a nonprofit
research group based in the United Kingdom, who wasn’t involved in Gilford’s
study but who does work with Climate Central, says the methodology the
scientists used looks solid. She has done similar work using historical data to
determine how climate change has also increased the amount of rainfall that
hurricanes cause. “We now have a lot of observations and many years of data
where we see these changes.”
Gilford knows firsthand how hurricanes affect people’s lives. A tree fell on his
family’s home in central Florida during Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, which he said
catalyzed his current career. Today, he lives in Orlando, and hurricanes
continue to impact his life year after year. “I care a lot about this problem,”
Gilford said in a press briefing about his study, “and we should care about this
problem because hurricanes are changing.”
Jumps in category strength carry tremendous hazards. According to the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the potential damages caused by a storm
increase exponentially—by a power of eight—with increases in wind speed. So, for
example, when storms double their wind speed, they can cause 256 times as much
damage.
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The new study does more than just reveal how climate change has worsened major
hurricanes to date. It provides a method that scientists can use in the future
to say, in near-real time, how global warming is affecting a specific, singular
cyclone. This should help communities not only prepare for the supercharged
storms that are becoming more standard fare, but also to better understand the
critical connections between those storms and the forces of climate change.
Lead image: BEST-BACKGROUNDS / Shutterstock
* SYRIS VALENTINE
Posted on November 27, 2024
Syris Valentine is an essayist and freelance journalist with a focus on
climate and social justice. Outside of his newsletter “Just Progress,” his
work has appeared in The Atlantic, Scientific American, Grist, and elsewhere.
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Psychology
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A STOLEN EGG
* By Liz Lindqwister
* November 26, 2024
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* November 20, 2024
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