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MARKETS BOUNCE BACK, BUT RISKS REMAIN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 * Brent Schutte, CFA®
 * Aug 12, 2024

Photo credit: Digital Vision/Getty Images
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Brent Schutte, CFA, is chief investment officer of the Northwestern Mutual
Wealth Management Company.

A volatile week ended with the major indices regaining most of the losses from
Monday’s sharp sell-off. The drop on Monday, which saw the S&P 500 down 3
percent at close, was a carryover from the prior week, when weaker than expected
employment data and signs of a slowing economy had investors fearing a recession
may be on the horizon. Concerns of an economic contraction have since eased as
many investors were cheered by fewer than expected initial jobless claims last
week. Additionally, there was a growing sense that the Fed has the greenlight to
cut rates aggressively at its September meeting and may approve a cut beforehand
should employment show more signs of economic weakness. In some ways, last week
wasn’t all that different than what we’ve been highlighting for the past several
months. Yes, volatility spiked in the market; and yes, the size of the sell-off
after the weaker than expected jobs data was unusual. However, just as we’ve
seen for most of this year, concerns sparked by weak economic news eventually
faded as investors found a “but” to counter the latest data point.

The casting aside of warning signs about the economy for much of this year has
been bolstered by two factors. First, as we noted in last week’s commentary,
many normally reliable economic indicators have been signaling an approaching
recession for up to two years—yet economic growth has continued. And second,
while parts of the economy showed signs of strain, the job market remained
robust, which many reasoned would help the economy stay afloat. However, the
recent climb of the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent has triggered the so-called
Sahm rule and weakened the case for a soft landing. This rule shows that since
1960, every time the three-month moving average unemployment rate rose by 0.5
percent or more from the prior 12-month low, a recession followed. While some on
Wall Street have countered that aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could still
offset any momentum of an economic slowdown, we believe the Federal Open Markets
Committee may be more conservative in reducing rates than many expect. That’s
because consumers remain in relatively good financial shape, and inflation
pressures have eased but not completely dissipated.

While we continue to believe the economy is likely headed for a contraction
based on a wide array of forward-looking indicators, we also acknowledge that it
is impossible to predict with any certainty when a recession may arrive. Indeed,
the many head fakes from the data since COVID have understandably made investors
somewhat desensitized to many of the warnings we’ve seen. But while it’s natural
that there are differing opinions on how long the current growth cycle can
continue, we believe it is fair to say that risks in the economy—and the
markets—have risen as the weight of higher interest rates continue to act as a
drag on growth. As such, we believe investors would be well served by asking
“what if?” What if the labor market, which is widely considered a lagging
economic indicator, falters further? What if the previously reliable indicators
are still directionally right even if the timing is delayed? By no means are we
suggesting that these what-if questions should prompt you to abandon your
investment plan. Instead, we believe the acknowledgement that economic risk is
heightened and, given signs of a weakening labor market, that we are closer to a
recession now than we were at the start of the post-COVID economic recovery
should encourage you to lean into your investment and financial plans.

Put another way, we suggest the best way of dealing with uncertainty is to 1)
develop a financial plan and 2) always adhere to diversification. Work with your
advisor to develop a financial plan that you follow through both good times and
bad. Embedded within that plan is the reality that life and markets are
uncertain. Any resulting asset allocation acknowledges that potential
volatility. We believe the best manner to deal with that volatility is through
diversification, which acknowledges that no one knows for certain what will
happen. And while diversification is often viewed as a defensive tool, we
believe it should be considered an all-weather approach that allows investors to
have exposure to asset classes that typically perform well even as others lag.
At Northwestern Mutual, our advisors have tools to help prepare for all of
life’s challenging events and uncertainties.

HAVE A QUESTION OR A TOPIC TO DISCUSS WITH YOUR ADVISOR?

Reach out


WALL STREET WRAP

Data out last week suggests that the slowdown in the economy may be gaining
momentum, which could lead to further softening of the employment picture.

Services sector activity perks up: The latest headline reading from the
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows activity in the services sector
rebounded in July with a reading of 51.4, up 2.6 points from June’s reading of
48.8. New orders rose to 52.4 from the previous month’s level of 47.3. Along
with rising growth, demand for workers moved higher, with the employment index
coming in at 51.1 compared to June’s reading of 46.1. It’s worth noting,
however, that July was only the second month this year that saw growth in
employment. Additionally, the six- and 12-month average readings for employment
are at levels that typically signal rising unemployment and a looming recession.
This is why we believe that the recent triggering of the Sahm rule is a warning
sign despite some on Wall Street suggesting the rule may not be a valid
indicator in this economic cycle.

While the report offered some positive news compared to the prior week’s
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report on the manufacturing side of the
economy, there were also some details that warrant further watching. On the
inflation front, the prices paid index in the survey rose to 57 from June’s 56.3
reading. Additionally, of 18 industries covered by the survey, 11 reported
paying higher prices, and readings on inventory sentiment continued to suggest
that companies believe they have too much inventory on hand. July’s reading came
in as 63.2, down modestly from June’s level of 64.1. Digging deeper, subtracting
the inventory sentiment reading from the new orders reading has proven to be a
reliable indicator of recessions. The latest calculation results in a -10.8
reading, which is slightly less negative than last month but is still at a level
that has been consistent with recessions going back to 1997.

The rising costs on the services side of the economy, along with renewed demand
for workers, could complicate the Fed’s ability to be aggressive once they begin
cutting rates. That’s because members of the Fed will still be wary of
reigniting price pressures and losing the hard-fought progress they’ve made on
inflation over the past two years.

This report, taken with the most recent ISM data on the manufacturing side of
the economy, shows that the economically weighted ISM (reflecting the
contribution percentage of the services and manufacturing sectors in total
economic activity) is at 50.9. Going back to 1997, this level has pointed to a
weak economy on the verge of recession. Importantly, two of the past four
weighted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings were at contractionary
levels.

Debt delinquencies edge higher: The latest report from the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York shows consumers took on more debt during the second quarter of the
year and that they were falling further behind on their loan payments. According
to the report, household debt levels grew by $1.09 billion during the quarter to
$17.8 trillion. At the same time, 3.2 percent of all loans were in delinquency,
with credit card debt (9.1 percent) and car loans (8 percent) showing the
highest rates of delinquency. The modest uptick in delinquencies means credit
card and auto loans that are seriously delinquent (more than 90 days) are now
above levels they were at just prior to the 2007 and 2001 recessions.

Mortgage debt delinquency levels remain relatively low compared to levels seen
before past recessions. The latest data shows 0.95 percent of mortgages were
delinquent, up just .04 percent from the first quarter and below the 1.18
percent rate seen in 2001. For further context, mortgage delinquencies spiked to
3.68 percent in 2007 at the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis.

More tightening by lenders: Businesses and consumers saw lending standards
tighten modestly during the second quarter, according to the results of the
Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Lending Practices.
Overall lending standards tightened during the quarter, but a lower net share of
banks reported ratcheting up their lending credit terms and requirements.

The net percentage of lenders reporting tighter lending standards for commercial
and industrial loans for large and middle-market firms came in at 7.9 percent in
the second quarter, down from 15.6 percent in the first quarter. Of those who
reported tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial loans, 88.9
percent cited worsening or uncertain economic conditions as a contributing
factor in their decision to tighten standards. Standards for commercial real
estate tightened, with a net 23.8 percent of all banks noting that they had
tightened standards during the second quarter.

While overall banks reported basically unchanged lending standards for
households, 20 percent of respondents reported tightening credit standards for
issuing credit cards, down modestly from 21.2 percent in the first quarter. Auto
loan standards were basically unchanged, but demand for auto loans weakened. The
continued tightening of standards for credit card issuance comes at a time when
consumers are increasingly turning to credit card usage to fund their spending.
Should credit standards continue to rise, it could affect consumer spending in
the future.

Continuing jobless claims rise: Initial jobless claims were 233,000, down 17,000
from last week’s level and below Wall Street estimates. However, the four-week
rolling average of new jobless claims came in at 240,750, an increase of 2,500
from the previous week’s average.

Continuing claims (those people remaining on unemployment benefits) stand at
1.875 million, up 6,000 from the previous week’s revised total and now at the
highest level since November 2021. The four-week moving average of continuing
claims came in at 1.862 million, an increase of 7,000 from last week and the
highest level since November 2021. We view continuing claims as a more reliable
indicator of the labor market, as they measure workers who are facing long-term
challenges in finding a job and, as such, filter out some of the temporary noise
that can be found in initial claims data.


THE WEEK AHEAD

Tuesday: The National Federation of Independent Businesses Small Business
Optimism Index readings for July will be out prior to the opening bell. Recent
readings have shown a modest uptick in optimism but have indicated that price
pressures and the state of the labor market continue to weigh on small
businesses, with many firms raising wages. We will watch for signs that suggest
these challenges are easing.

The latest readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on its Producer Price
Index will offer a look at changes in costs for buyers of finished goods for
July. We will be watching to see if input costs continue to creep higher, which
could put pressure on profit margins or slow the pace of disinflation.

Wednesday: The Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
will be the big report for the week. Recent data has shown the disinflationary
process has restarted, and we will be dissecting the data to see if it suggests
prices continue to ease.

Thursday: Initial and continuing jobless claims will be out before the market
opens. Continuing claims have been trending higher, and we’ll continue to
monitor this report for further signs of eroding strength of the employment
picture.

The U.S. Census Bureau will release the latest numbers on retail sales for July
before the opening bell. Last month’s report showed tepid sales, and we will be
watching to see if consumers have continued to pull back on spending.

The Federal Reserve Board will release industrial production data for July. This
measure has been weak since late 2022 but has recently shown signs of perking
up. We will be watching to see if the manufacturing sector is showing additional
signs of strengthening.

The Homebuilders Index from the National Association of Home Builders will be
out in the morning. Confidence among builders has been under pressure lately as
high mortgage rates have persisted. With hopes of rate cuts reigniting during
the past few weeks, we will be watching to see if optimism has perked up.

Friday: The University of Michigan will release its preliminary report on August
consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. We will be watching to see if
recent concerns on Wall Street about a potential recession has taken a toll on
the outlook of consumers.

We’ll get July housing starts and building permits from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This data, along with the Homebuilders Index released on Thursday, will provide
insight into the home construction market.


NM IN THE MEDIA

See our experts' insight in recent media appearances.

CNBC

Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer, discusses why he still expects a
recession and where he sees areas of opportunity in the markets. Watch

Cheddar News

Matt Stucky, Chief Portfolio Manager-Equities, discusses first quarter earnings
season, slowing economic growth and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy in
the second half of the year. Watch

Yahoo! Finance

Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer, discusses his expectations of how the
Federal Reserve may proceed with rates and the risks of chasing current market
leaders. Watch

Follow Brent Schutte on X (formerly Twitter) and LinkedIn.

Commentary is written to give you an overview of recent market and economic
conditions, but it is only our opinion at a point in time and shouldn’t be used
as a source to make investment decisions or to try to predict future market
performance. To learn more, click here.

There are a number of risks with investing in the market; if you want to learn
more about them and other investment-related terminology and disclosures, click
here.

Brent Schutte, CFA® Chief Investment Officer

As the chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
Company, I guide the investment philosophy for individual retail investors. In
my more than 25 years of investment experience, I have navigated investors
through booms and busts, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to the financial
crisis of 2008-2009. An innate sense of investigative curiosity coupled with a
healthy dose of natural skepticism help guide my ability to maintain a steady
hand in the short term while also preserving a focus on long-term investment
plans and financial goals.

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