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Published by Mark Mobius on 21 March 2017


SOUTH AFRICA: KEY ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

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Johannesburg, South Africa

As I’ve previously written, I had the opportunity to visit South Africa recently
and meet with a number of executives at companies there, as well as talk to
people and observe various trends.

It’s important to note that we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group pursue an
active, bottom-up approach to investing. Even if things look bleak overall in a
country, there are always potential opportunities to be unearthed. If we believe
a company’s fundamentals appear sound and long-term prospects bright, we will
invest where we see value potential. With that in mind, I would like to outline
some of the key issues South Africa’s economy is facing that we are watching as
investors.

Education

One of the most important areas of concern in South Africa is education. Without
an educated population, a country cannot progress not only in terms of economic
development but also because of political development. In South Africa, just
like in other parts of the world, parents have a strong desire to see their
children progress and have a good life; hence, families are willing to make
sacrifices for education. Unfortunately, the government has not been able to
supply enough classroom spaces for those of school age and many existing
government facilities in low-income areas offer poor-quality education.



Part of the problem is tied to budget constraints, but there are also
administrative and corruption issues. Corruption Watch, a non-government
organisation, said that between 2012 and 2015 it received more than 1,000
reports of school principals who had stolen cash from school bank accounts. It
also reported school principal posts are so lucrative they are bought and sold.

As a result of these problems, a thriving private-school market has emerged in
South Africa. One private-school firm we visited had more than 100 schools and
was expanding rapidly, with more new schools opening each year. Given capacity
and quality issues in government schools, as well as a lack of schools in newly
developing areas, middle-class families are seeking to enroll their children in
lower-cost private schools in greater numbers.

The school personnel we spoke with said even poor parents would sacrifice a
substantial portion of their income to send their children to these schools, in
an attempt to get them the best education possible. Some of the families lived
in wood and corrugated steel shacks with no running water or inside toilets. The
firm’s management has been working on a “plug-and-play” model where schools can
be established all over the country with a centralised head office that manages
information technology, curriculum materials, site locations and overall
management.

Also looking at the government schools, I learned the range of quality varies
greatly. Driving through one of the high- income neighbourhoods of Cape Town, I
saw a beautiful school with excellent buildings and all kinds of sport
facilities. I learned students attending that school scored among the highest in
academic standards in the country.

However, other government schools have overcrowding and very low standards. A
school’s local governing body can charge additional fees to students to maintain
certain standards, facilities, etc, which means the quality of education is
better in wealthier neighbourhoods, where families can afford high fees, than in
poor neighbourhoods where families can’t.

At government schools, teacher quality and training is seen as a problem, and
apparently, it’s not uncommon to find teachers with only a 10th-grade education
themselves teaching students in grade 12. This is a legacy of the so-called
“bantu” education system during apartheid years, which neglected teacher
training for the black population. With the tremendous influence that education
has on unemployment and economic advancement, we hope that this area sees some
progress so even underprivileged children have access to a good education.

Immigration



A major challenge and opportunity for South Africa is immigration from other
parts of Africa, with refugees seeking asylum from persecution or simply trying
to find a way to make a living in one of Africa’s richest economies. This
includes many illegal immigrants. Competition for jobs means tension and
violence between the refugees and local communities – along with poverty and
crime. Middle- and upper-class South Africans are major clients for security
services and gated communities.

While it’s difficult to make direct comparisons, the private security industry
in South Africa – with some 9,000 registered companies and more than 400,000
private security guards – is among the world’s largest on a per-capita basis and
employs more than the local police. However, crime cannot be attributed only to
immigrants and a general lack of law enforcement is also a factor. Immigration
can have a positive impact and, as we have seen in other parts of the world,
immigrants have made tremendous contributions to the economy and culture of the
countries they have entered.

Infrastructure and inequality

South Africa’s economy is the second largest in Africa after Nigeria but with
substantially better infrastructure. It boasts a relatively high GDP per capita
compared with other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, but it also has extremes of
wealth and poverty. Hundreds of tin and scrap-wood shacks lie in the shadow of
multimillion-dollar mansions with incredible ocean views. The Gini coefficient,
a measure of income inequality, ranks South Africa as one of the world’s most
unequal societies.

The importance of African neighbours is highlighted when we look at southern
Africa’s electric power situation. Situated adjacent to Namibia, Mozambique,
Botswana and Zimbabwe, South Africa has the advantage of sharing power resources
with those neighbouring countries. In Zimbabwe, a huge power plant built on a
gorge of the Zambezi River supplies power to South Africa in times of shortages,
while South African excess capacity is supplied when its neighbours face
shortages.

Labour issues

The government’s Black Economic Empowerment policies have drawn criticism from
some economists, because although it has resulted in some individuals becoming
wealthy, it has not addressed the broader masses. Nevertheless, black
empowerment is a key government initiative. Restrictive labour regulations and a
lack of skills and educational development have contributed to large-scale
unemployment, which remains problematic.

Several challenges have plagued the South African mining industry in particular
over the past few years – a key driver of the country’s economy. Besides
declining commodity prices, labour union rivalry escalated labour issues,
resulting in one of the more prolonged and violent strikes in the country’s
history. Various labour-related issues, including onerous regulations and weak
commodity prices saw some mining companies sell off less profitable operations
and pursue layoffs where they were allowed, but an uptick in metals prices could
aid the sector and help drive better economic growth this year.



Land reform

Land reform has been a crucial topic since the end of apartheid. In 2015,
President Jacob Zuma said he was seeking a ban on foreign land ownership, as
well as limiting the total area of land holdings to 12,000 hectares per
individual of any nationality. The government planned to purchase excess land
above this limit and redistribute it. In 2017, Zuma said he would speed up the
land reform programme. The method of execution was to be the Expropriation Bill,
but the Constitutional Court halted the land reform process for 18 months. The
court said Parliament had to fix the Land Restitution Bill first before it could
start allowing new land claims. The bill was passed into law in 2014 and allowed
people who missed a 1998 deadline to lodge land claims. South Africa’s
government estimates it would require between US$9bn and $13bn to settle new
land claims.

The proposed law will probably have the greatest impact on commercial farmers,
with a presidential spokesperson clarifying that the bill would be applied to
agricultural land, not residential property. This includes local farmers, for
whom limiting the land area of holdings would probably narrow the scope for
economies of scale, if there is no distinction between grades of agricultural
land.

Apparently, the bill’s introduction by the governing African National Congress
(ANC) was designed to meet the criticism of the radical left Economic Freedom
Fighters (EFF) who were pushing for expropriation of land without compensation
because of the failure of the government’s “willing-buyer willing-seller” model.
To date, the ban on foreign land ownership or the limit of 12,000 hectares has
not come into effect. The EFF was also calling for mine expropriations, but the
ANC stopped it.

State-owned enterprises

The South African state owns about 700 firms, including railways, ports and a
whole range of companies operating in various industries which are called
“parastatals”. Pay for civil servants has increased much faster than inflation,
and perks for high-ranking government ministers have increased rapidly as well.
Naturally, the result is that everyone wants to work for the government and some
observers say government payrolls have become too bloated. State-owned
enterprises have also become increasingly inefficient and have been subject to
mismanagement, thus putting a strain on government finances.

Privatisation is one solution to addressing corruption and inefficiencies in the
parastatals, which would result in greater transparency and adherence to profit
targets. Fears of job losses have caused opposition to this approach.

However, we have seen evidence that some steps are being taken to improve the
performance of state-owned companies, including the hiring of outside
consultants in some cases, to help find ways to boost revenue, including
restructuring. The appointed consultants aren’t without critics though.

Travel and tourism

Meanwhile, tourism offers a bright spot for the economy. South Africa remains a
favourite travel destination, with readers of the United Kingdom’s Telegraph
rating Cape Town “the world’s best city” in 2016 and The New York Times putting
Cape Town at the top of its “52 places to go” list in 2014. The International
Council of Societies of Industrial Design also named the city its “world design
capital 2014”.

Nelson Mandela’s first speech as a free man was made from the balcony of Cape
Town City Hall. At the trendy Victoria and Alfred Waterfront are statues of
South Africa’s four Nobel Peace Prize winners: Albert Luthuli, Desmond Tutu, F.
W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela. Unlike other parts of the country the ANC has
dominated, the Democratic Alliance (DA) controls the Western Cape, winning an
outright majority in the 2011 elections and putting Helen Zille, the then-leader
of the DA, as the premier of the province.



Cape Town has been growing at a good pace because of the booming flow of
tourists attracted to its famous beaches and attractions. The city’s technology
industry is also enjoying a boom.

On my visit to Cape Town, crowded shopping centers were an indication that
tourism was alive and well. It was difficult to find restaurants with available
seats. Prior visa restrictions were a major barrier for many foreign tourists,
but the elimination of more onerous policies helped revive the tourist flow. I
personally found the entry process to the country easy. When I landed at Cape
Town airport, I didn’t have to complete an immigration form and simply handed my
passport to the immigration officer who looked at it, scanned it, then gave it
back to me with a smile. I was on my way quickly.

Despite all the political and economic challenges facing South Africa, the
people’s desire for a better life with better education for their children,
strong domestic institutions, full employment opportunities and faster economic
growth means that the future can be much brighter.

While progress has been slow, we do see signs that some of the factors
constraining growth in 2016 may be improving, including a rise in commodity
prices globally and ebbing of crippling worker strikes in the country.

We must not forget that South Africa is an important economy in terms of
consumption and production (particularly in minerals) and that many South
African companies have operations throughout Africa. That broad exposure to the
continent opens up tremendous opportunities in our view, as Africa has some of
the fastest-growing economies in the world. Even though per-capita incomes are
low now, that means starting from that low base, growth rates could be
remarkable. And in many cases, that means opportunities for South African
companies will open the door to further growth, too.

South Africa has a lot to celebrate. It successfully ended apartheid, launched a
democratic government with national participation and avoided the mass chaos
that has afflicted other African countries transitioning from colonial to
democratic control. The challenge now is to continue to pursue the economic and
political conditions that will spread the wealth throughout the population and
provide an example for the rest of Africa and the world.

Mark Mobius is executive chairman at Templeton Emerging Markets Group. This
article first appeared on his blog. 


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