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THE US IS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BEING PULLED INTO A MIDDLE EAST WAR

Analysis by Ben Wedeman, CNN



Updated 1123 GMT (1923 HKT) October 20, 2023

Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower deploys from Naval Station Norfolk,
Oct. 14, 2023

A version of this story appears in CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East
newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region's biggest stories. Sign
up here.

Southern Lebanon (CNN)A US navy ship intercepts missiles launched by Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Two American bases in Syria come under fire. In Iraq, drones
and rockets fired at US forces.

Gaza may be where the war is happening now, but across the Middle East the
warning lights of more trouble to come are blinking red.
The US has deployed two carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean to deter
Iran and its allies Syria and Hezbollah from opening new fronts against Israel.
Two thousand US Marines are on hard standby for deployment to the region.



US President Joe Biden spent seven hours in Israel Wednesday, voicing full
support for Israel's campaign against Gaza, albeit urging Israeli leaders, and
repeating it in his Thursday evening speech from the White House, not to be
blinded by rage. Biden is pledging to provide Israel billions of dollars in
additional aid.

US President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv,
Israel, on October 18.

Read More
Prior to that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent seven hours meeting with
Israel's war cabinet -- not the regular Israeli cabinet, the war cabinet.
All the while the US is airlifting massive amounts of ammunition and equipment
to help the Israeli war effort.
It all amounts to this: the United States is careening closer to the very real
possibility of direct involvement in a regional Middle Eastern war. This is not
the 1991 campaign to expel Saddam Hussein's army from Kuwait or the 2003
invasion of Iraq, both preceded by months of planning and preparation. Then, the
US and its allies determined the time, place, and scale of attack.



Now, at best, the US is scrambling to respond to events largely out of its
control.
And in this dangerous terrain, suddenly the vulnerabilities of the sprawling
American military presence across the Middle East are glaringly obvious.



REGIONAL RIVALRIES

The US has troops in northeastern and southeastern Syria, a country where Bashar
al-Assad's army, and forces from Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, an array of
anti-regime factions, and Kurdish militias are all operating, as well as the
still active remnants of the Islamic State. Israel regularly bombs targets in
Syria, most recently, it is widely believed, the airports of Aleppo and
Damascus, with the aim of stopping Iran from flying in weapons and ammunition.
The US also has a military presence in Iraq, where a myriad of well-armed and
battle-hardened Iranian-backed militias operate largely independent of the
government in Baghdad.
And then there's Iran.
Despite decades of draconian US-inspired sanctions, Iran has succeeded in
developing an array of sophisticated weaponry. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) has gained valuable combat experience in Syria and Iraq. It has
provided training and arms to the Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian regime,
Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Biden makes the case for wartime aid to Israel and Ukraine in primetime address

In the aftermath of the January 2020 US assassination of IRGC commander Qasem
Soleimani, Iran was able to fire a salvo of missiles at a US base in neighboring
Iraq.
And while it costs thousands of dollars to move one soldier or Marine from the
US to the Middle East, it's just a bus ride for an IRGC soldier to get to
Baghdad, Damascus, or Beirut.
The US may have the world's strongest military, but as the American debacles in
Vietnam and Afghanistan proved, that's no guarantee of victory over a determined
and resourceful foe. Or, in the case of the Middle East today, foes.
During recent visits to Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Doha, Iranian Foreign
Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian repeatedly warned if Israel continues its
offensive against Gaza, the opening of new fronts can't be ruled out. Empty
rhetoric perhaps. Or perhaps not.



PROTESTS AGAINST ISRAEL AND US

As the war in Gaza rages, the Middle East is seething with anger. In Jordan,
Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt and elsewhere protests have
flared against Israel, but much of the rage is also directed against Israel's
most vocal, persistent, and generous backer, the United States.
Jordan's King Abdullah, Washington's most cooperative Arab friend, canceled the
scheduled summit with President Biden in Amman in the aftermath of the deadly
blast at Gaza's Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. No doubt he and the planned summit's
other participants, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, were loath to be seen side by side with an
American leader who so passionately embraced Israel as the death toll in Gaza
soared.
The US can still count allies among the region's autocrats. The streets are a
whole different matter.
Anger has been turbocharged in the wake of a deadly blast that tore through
Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza on Tuesday, killing hundreds. Palestinian
officials accuse Israel of striking the hospital. Israel denies it.
Meeting in Cairo Thursday, President Sisi and King Abdullah issued a joint
statement warning "if the war does not stop and expands, it threatens to plunge
the entire region into a catastrophe."
They are tasked with viewing 'the worst imaginable images' of the Israel-Hamas
war. It's taking a heavy toll

I've spent the past week reporting from along the Lebanon-Israel border, the
trip wire for that catastrophe. Hezbollah fighters daily target Israeli army
positions, using guided missiles to hit tanks, troops and, most consistently,
surveillance and communications equipment. The military wings of Hamas and
Palestinian Islamic Jihad occasionally fire volleys of rockets into Israel. The
Israelis strike back targeting what they say is Hezbollah's military
infrastructure. Combatants and civilians have been killed and injured on both
sides.
It's enough to keep nerves on edge, but not enough, yet, to precipitate an
all-out war, and it's not enough, yet, to draw the US into the conflict. But the
very real possibility exists.

The American carrier groups just over the horizon are there to deter Iran,
Hezbollah and others from going too far. If they do, and the US responds, then
all bets are off.
All the pieces are now in place for Israel's decades-old quarrel with the
Palestinians to explode into a regional cataclysm. And the US may be in the
middle of it.

Go deeper into the biggest stories and trends in the Middle East and what they
mean for your world. Sign up for CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter
right here.

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