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THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Here you can peruse the debate that followed the paper presenting the simulation
argument. The original paper is here, as are popular synopses, scholarly papers
commenting or expanding on or critiquing the first paper, and some replies by
the author. The simulation argument continues to attract a great deal of
attention. I apologize for not usually being able to respond to individual
inquiries. I hope you might find what you're looking for on this page.


ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION? ORIGINAL

Html Pdf
Nick Bostrom Philosophical Quarterly, 2003, Vol. 53, No. 211, pp. 243-255.
(Draft published online in 2001)
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This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1)
the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman”
stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant
number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3)
we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the
belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans
who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a
simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.

> "The Simulation Argument is perhaps the first interesting argument for the
> existence of a Creator in 2000 years." - David Pearce (exaggerated compliment)

> "Thank you so much, Dr. Bostrom. You have proved that my psychiatrist was
> wrong all along." - Anonymous correpondent (misfiring compliment)

Some Popular Synopses


DISCUSSION ON THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT WITH LEX FRIDMAN

Podcast with Lex Fridman March 25th, 2020



ON ANTHROPICS AND THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT WITH SEAN CARROLL

Podcast with Sean Carroll August 24th, 2020



EXPLAINED BY ELON MUSK.

Vox 2016



IS REALITY REAL? THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Kurzgesagt 2017



THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT: WHY THE PROBABILITY THAT YOU ARE LIVING IN THE MATRIX
IS QUITE HIGH

Nick Bostrom Times Higher Educational Supplement, May 16, 2003

Another popularization. (Has been translated into Spanish, Russian.)


WHY MAKE A MATRIX? AND WHY YOU MIGHT BE IN ONE

Nick Bostrom In More Matrix and Philosophy: Revolutions and Reloaded Decoded,
ed. William Irwin (Open Court, 2005).

Yet another popularization, for Matrix-aficionados.


ARE OUR HEADS IN THE CLOUD? SCIENCE FICTION OR FACT?


Richard Dawkins

There is a powerful logical argument that they [simulators who constructed the
reality we experience] could very possibly be science fact.


Frequently asked questions


THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT FAQ

Nick Bostrom 2011

Answers to 16 common questions.

Scholarly commentaries and follow-on studies


HOW TO LIVE IN A SIMULATION

Html Pdf
Robin Hanson Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 7, 2001

If you might be living in a simulation then all else equal you should care less
about others, live more for today, make your world look more likely to become
rich, expect to and try more to participate in pivotal events, be more
entertaining and praiseworthy, and keep the famous people around you happier and
more interested in you.


THE MATRIX AS METAPHYSICS

David Chalmers 2003

On several Brains-in-vats and Matrix-like scenarios. Argues in support of what
is also my contention, that the simulation-hypothesis is not a radical skeptical
hypothesis.


INNOCENCE LOST: SIMULATION SCENARIOS: PROSPECTS AND CONSEQUENCES

Barry Dainton Draft, 2002

Those who believe suitably programmed computers could enjoy conscious experience
of the sort we enjoy must accept the possibility that their own experience is
being generated as part of a computerized simulation. It would be a mistake to
dismiss this is just one more radical sceptical possibility: for as Bostrom has
recently noted, if advances in computer technology were to continue at close to
present rates, there would be a strong probability that we are each living in a
computer simulation. The first part of this paper is devoted to broadening the
scope of the argument: even if computers cannot sustain consciousness (as many
dualists and materialists believe), there may still be a strong likelihood that
we are living simulated lives. The implications of this result are the focus of
the second part of the paper. The topics discussed include: the Doomsday
argument, scepticism, the different modes of virtual life, transcendental
idealism, the Problem of Evil, and simulation ethics.


ARE YOU A SIM?

Brian Weatherson Philosophical Quarterly, 53: 425-31, 2003.

Weatherson is prepared to accept the Simulation Argument up to, but not
including, the final step, in which I use the Bland Principle of Indifference.
In this paper, he examines four different ways to understand this principle and
argues that none of them serves the purpose. (For my reply, see the paper
below.) Note that Weatherson accepts the third disjunct in the conclusion of the
Simulation Argument - i.e. that there are many more simulated human-like persons
than non-simulated ones. By contrast, I do not accept this: I think we currently
lack grounds for eliminating either of the three disjuncts.


LIVING IN A SIMULATED UNIVERSE

John D. Barrow Universe or Multiverse? ed. Bernard Carr (Cambridge University
Press): pp. 481-486, 2007

We explain why, if we live in a simulated reality, we might expect to see
occasional glitches and small drifts in the supposed constants and laws of
Nature over time.


THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT: REPLY TO WEATHERSON

Nick Bostrom Philosophical Quarterly Vol. 55, No. 218, pp. 90-97, 2005

My reply to Weatherson's paper (above). I argue he has misinterpreted the
relevant indifference principle and that he has not provided any sound argument
against the correct interpretation, nor has he addressed the arguments for this
principle that I gave in the original paper. There also a few words on the
difference between the Simulation Argument and traditional brain-in-a-vat
arguments, and on so-called epistemological externalism.


SIMULATION SCENARIOS

Barry Dainton Powerpoint presentation, 2003

Covers many related issues, but may be hard to understand without the oral
presentation that is meant to go with these 79 slides.


THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT AGAIN

Anthony Brueckner Analysis, Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 224-226, 2008.

Short article by Brueckner in which he proffers "a new way of thinking about
Bostrom's argument". (See below for my reply.)


THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT: SOME EXPLANATIONS

Nick Bostrom Analysis, Vol. 69, No. 3, pp. 458-261, 2009

My response to Brueckner (above), in which I argue that he has misconstrued the
simulation argument. I also argue that he is mistaken in his critique of the
idea that simulated beings may themselves create ancestor-simulations.


HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS - MOTIVATIONAL, ETHICAL AND LEGAL ISSUES

Peter S. Jenkins Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 23-42, 2006

A future society will very likely have the technological ability and the
motivation to create large numbers of completely realistic historical
simulations and be able to overcome any ethical and legal obstacles to doing so.
It is thus highly probable that we are a form of artificial intelligence
inhabiting one of these simulations. To avoid stacking (i.e. simulations within
simulations), the termination of these simulations is likely to be the point in
history when the technology to create them first became widely available,
(estimated to be 2050). Long range planning beyond this date would therefore be
futile.


ARE WE LIVING IN A MATRIX? WHAT CAN COMPUTERS TELL US ABOUT GOD?

Hooman Katarai Powerpoint presentation, 2004

An MIT computer science grad student theologizes.


THEOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Eric Steinhart Ars Disputandi, Vol. 10, pp. 1566-5399, 2010

Nick Bostrom’s Simulation Argument (SA) has many intriguing theological
implications. We work out some of them here. We show how the SA can be used to
develop novel versions of the Cosmological and Design Arguments. We then develop
some of the affinities between Bostrom’s naturalistic theogony and more
traditional theological topics. We look at the resurrection of the body and at
theodicy. We conclude with some reflections on the relations between the SA and
Neoplatonism (friendly) and between the SA and theism (less friendly).


I, SIM - AN EXPLORATION OF THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Anders Hammarstrom 2008

A student's MA thesis


A PATCH FOR THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Nick Bostrom & Marcin Kulczycki Analysis, Vol. 71, No., 1, pp. 54-61, 2011

This article reports on a newly discovered bug in the original simulation
argument. Two different ways of patching the argument are proposed, each of
which preserves the original conclusion.


NATURAL EVIL AND THE SIMULATION HYPOTHESIS

David Kyle Johnson Philo, Fall-Winter issue, Vol. 14, No. 2., 2011

Some theists maintain that they need not answer the threat posed to theistic
belief by natural evil; they have reason enough to believe that God exists and
it renders impotent any threat that natural evil poses to theism. Explicating
how God and natural evil co-exist is not necessary since they already know both
exist. I will argue that, even granting theists the knowledge they claim, this
does not leave them in an agreeable position. It commits the theist to a very
unpalatable position: our universe was not designed by God and is instead, most
likely, a computer simulation.


CONSTRAINTS ON THE UNIVERSE AS A NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Silas R. Beane, Zohreh Davoudi, Martin J. Savageavid 2012

A low-level physics simulation using the simplest simulation methods, which
simulated our universe on a grid with finite resolution, would result in some
potentially observable distortions of the simulated physics because of the
rotational symmertry breaking effects of the simulation lattice. I would think
that even the earlist simulations of systems sufficiently complex to contain
observers would make use of powerful computational shortcuts that would
eliminate the opportunity to observe any such discrepancies (mostly the
simulation would take place at a much higher level of abstraction in order to
reduce the computational demands).


ON THE 'SIMULATION ARGUMENT' AND SELECTIVE SKEPTICISM

Jonathan Birch Erkenntnis, Vol. 78, No. 1, pp. 95-107, 2013 (requires journal
subscription)

Develops an objection similar to the one discussed under question 4 in the Q&A.


THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

William Eckhardt In Paradoxes in Probability Theory (Springer), chapter 4 (book
link)

A critical discussion in the context of the doomsday argument.


THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT AND THE SIMULATION ARGUMENT

Peter J. Lewis Synthese, January 2013 (requires journal subscription)

Analyzes some analogies and disanalogies between the doomsday argument and the
simulation argument, and concludes that the former fails whille the latter
succeeds.

Some background readings
Traditional philosophical skepticism and brain-in-a-vat arguments:


SKEPTICISM: A CONTEMPORARY READER

DeRose, K. and Warfield, T. A. (eds.) Oxford University Press, Oxford. 1999.

On anticipated technological capability of running realistic simulations:


WHOLE BRAIN EMULATION: A ROADMAP

Sandberg, A. and Bostrom, N. Technical Report #2008-3, Future of Humanity
Institute, Oxford University, 2008


MINIMUM ENERGY REQUIREMENTS OF INFORMATION TRANSFER AND COMPUTING.

Bremermann, H. J. International Journal of Theoretical Physics 21: 203-217, 1982


SUPERINTELLIGENCE: PATHS, DANGERS, STRATEGIES

Bostrom, N. (2014) Oxford University Press, Oxford.


ENGINES OF CREATION: THE COMING ERA OF NANOTECHNOLOGY.

Drexler, K. E. London, Forth Estate, 1985


HOW LONG BEFORE SUPERINTELLIGENCE?

Bostrom, N. International Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 2, 1998


NANOSYSTEMS: MOLECULAR MACHINERY, MANUFACTURING, AND COMPUTATION.

Drexler, K. E. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1999


MATRIOSHKA BRAINS.

Drexler, K. E. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1992


NANOMEDICINE: VOLUME 1: BASIC CAPABILITIES.

Freitas, R. A. , Jr. Landes Bioscience, 1998


THE AGE OF SPIRITUAL MACHINES: WHEN COMPUTERS EXCEED HUMAN INTELLIGENCE

Kurzweil, R.. New York, Viking, 1999


ULTIMATE PHYSICAL LIMITS TO COMPUTATION

Lloyd, S. Nature 406 (31 August): 1047-1054, 2000


MIND CHILDREN

Moravec, H. Harvard, Harvard University Press, 1989


ROBOT: MERE MACHINE TO TRANSCENDENT MIND

Moravec, H. New York, Oxford University Press, 1999


PIGS IN CYBERSPACE

Moravec, H. Extropy #10, Winter/Spring issue. 1993


THE PHYSICS OF INFORMATION PROCESSING SUPEROBJECTS: THE DAILY LIFE AMONG THE
JUPITER BRAINS

Sandberg, A. Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 5., 1999


THE PHYSICS OF IMMORTALITY

Frank J. Tipler Doubleday, 1994


Existential risks (How we could fail to develop the required technologies):


EXISTENTIAL RISKS: ANALYZING HUMAN EXTINCTION SCENARIOS AND RELATED HAZARDS

Html Pdf
Nick Bostrom Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, 2002


EXISTENTIAL RISKS REDUCTION AS GLOBAL PRIORITY

Html Pdf
Nick Bostrom Global Policy Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 15-31, 2013
The methodology of observation selection effects:


ANTHROPIC BIAS: OBSERVATION SELECTION EFFECTS IN SCIENCE AND PHILOSOPHY

Nick Bostrom Routledge, New York. 2002


ANTHROPIC-PRINCIPLE.COM

Nick Bostrom Website containing introductions and preprints
Miscellaneous


THE PLANETARIUM HYPOTHESIS: A RESOLUTION OF THE FERMI PARADOX

Stephen Baxter Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol. 54, no. 5/6,
pp. 210-216. 2001.


Some simulation-scenarios depicted in fiction:


BEDLAM

Christopher Brookmyre Novel, 2013


PERMUTATION CITY

Greg Egan Novel, 1995


THE MATRIX

Directed by the Wachowskis Film, parts I-III (1999-2003)


THE THIRTEENTH FLOOR

Directed by Joseph Rusnak Film, 1999


VANILLA SKY

Directed by Cameron Crowe Film, 2001, based on the film Open Your Eyes


OPEN YOUR EYES (ABRES LOS OJOS)

Directed by Alejandro Amenábar Film, 1997


I DON'T KNOW, TIMMY, BEING GOD IS A BIG RESPONSIBILITY

qntm Short story, 2007


WELT AM DRAHT

Directed by Rainer Fassbinder Film, 1973. (Trevor Levick suggests this might be
the original of all Matrix-type films.)

Note: This is by no means a complete list. Some others include Simulacron III
(1963), aka Counterfeit World, by Daniel F. Galouye, which was made into the
movie Welt Am Draht (1973) by Rainer Werner Fassbinder (The Thirteenth Floor was
also based on Simulacron III); Exit to Reality (1997) by Edith Forbes; Otherland
by Tad Williams (1996-2001); the film Dark City (1950, 1998); eXistenZ (film
directed by David Cronenberg, 1999); many stories by Philip K. Dick; Realtime
Interrupt (1995) by James P. Hogan, etc. etc. Jay Shreib produced a play
inspired by the simulation argument, World of Wires, which opened in New York in
January 2012.

Miscellaneous


WORLD OF WIRES

A play inspired by the simulation argument, New York, 2012.


NICK PASZTOR DROPS A BEAT

Simulation Argument (Extended Simulated Remix), 2018.


L'ANOMALIE (THE ANOMALY)

Prize-winning French novel by Hervé Le Tellier, inspired by the simulation
argument, 2020.
About

NICK BOSTROM



Photo credit: David Vintiner

Nick Bostrom is professor at the University of Oxford, where he directs the
Future of Humanity Institute. His homepage is at nickbostrom.com.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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