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 * Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter- UNCTAD

Trade


GLOBAL TRADE TRENDS TURNED POSITIVE IN THE FIRST QUARTER- UNCTAD

Jul 2, 2024

Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter- UNCTAD

Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value
of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by
about 1.5%.


This surge, fueled by positive trade dynamics for the United States and
developing countries, particularly large Asian developing economies, is expected
to add approximately $250 billion to goods trade and $100 billion to services
trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.

Global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3% for 2024, with the
short-term trade outlook being cautiously optimistic. If positive trends
persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, yet it is
unlikely to surpass its record level seen in 2022.

China, India and the U.S. drive global trade
Global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 was primarily driven by
increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%). Conversely,
Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s exports decreased by 5%.

South-South trade sets the pace
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in
both imports and exports during the first quarter. In comparison, developed
countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports.

On an annual basis, however, South-South trade fell by 5% when comparing the
first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.

Green energy and  AI sectors see strong surge
Trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and
AI-related products experiencing stronger increases.

The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25% compared to the first
quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8% increase. The
trade value of electric vehicles also grew significantly, increasing by about
25%.





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