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(Free Report) Today's Top 5 Stocks Priced Below $10

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TRUMP VS. BIDEN: LATEST POLL REVEALS CLEAR IMPACT OF EX-PRESIDENT'S CONVICTION
ON VOTERS IN TIGHTLY CONTESTED RACE

Bibhu Pattnaik
June 09, 2024

Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump has seen
a decline in support following his recent conviction. Despite this, he still
holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden.

What Happened: According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Trump has lost a small
portion of his potential supporters following his conviction yet maintains a
lead over Biden.

Trump leads Biden by one percentage point in a direct contest, according to
RealClearPolitics' polling averages. When third-party candidates are included,
his lead narrows to 2.2 points.

In seven critical swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia,
North Carolina and Pennsylvania — Trump consistently leads Biden. These states
are pivotal for the upcoming election, with Biden having narrowly won all but
North Carolina in 2020.

Also Read: Following Trump's Guilty Verdict, Legal Experts Say He Could Face
This Punishment Instead Of Prison Time

A survey by the Cook Political Report in May indicated that Trump held an
average lead of three points in these states. Likewise, a Bloomberg/Morning
Consult poll from the same month revealed that Trump was ahead of Biden by four
points in these key battleground regions.

In a close race, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could influence the
election outcome. A May Emerson poll revealed Trump's lead over Biden increases
from two to five points with Kennedy and other independents in the mix.

Recent polls show that Biden and the Democratic Party are losing traction with
crucial demographic groups, such as Black, Latino and younger voters. A survey
conducted by NPR/PBS/Marist in May additionally revealed that voters under 45
favor Biden over Trump by a slim margin of just four points.

Why It Matters: Trump’s recent conviction has significantly impacted the
political landscape, with polls showing mixed results for the two leading
candidates.

Contrary to the New York Times/Siena poll, a Yahoo News and YouGov poll
conducted from June 3 to 6, for example, showed that Biden now leads Trump by
two points in a two-way race, marking Biden’s highest support since August 2023.
This is the first time Biden has led Trump since October 2023.

Trump’s conviction has not only affected his support but also highlighted the
volatility of voter preferences in the lead-up to the 2024 election. The
inclusion of third-party candidates like Kennedy further complicates the race,
as they could sway the outcome by drawing votes away from the major party
candidates.

The loss of support among key demographics for Biden and the Democratic Party,
particularly among Black, Latino, and younger voters, underscores the challenges
they face in securing a win. The shifting dynamics in swing states, which are
crucial for electoral victory, add another layer of complexity to the election.

Now Read: Latest Poll Of Independents And Republicans Could Spell Trouble For
Donald Trump Following His Historic Conviction

This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was
reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo: Shutterstock

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