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Politics


THIS IS WHY THE WEST IS SO WORRIED ABOUT THE LATEST AFRICAN COUP

Tensions are ratcheting up in Niger, with foreign powers jockeying for position
in what was the last bastion of stability in a hotspot of jihadist activity.

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Supporters of Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland with
Russian and national flags during a demonstration in Niamey on Aug. 11.

Source: AFP/Getty Images

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By Katarina Hoije
August 17, 2023 at 6:00 AM GMT+2

Listen

6:04

Ten days after soldiers took the president of Niger hostage and declared
themselves the West African country’s new government, the second-ranking US
diplomat visited the capital, Niamey.

There have been half a dozen coups in the past three years in this stretch of
the Sahel, an impoverished, arid strip south of the Sahara — but none brought
out the likes of Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, a close
adviser to President Joe Biden.

Nuland had what she called an “extremely frank and at times quite difficult”
two-hour conversation with a general who had trained in the US, but was refused
meetings with both the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, and the general who
overthrew him, Abdourahamane Tiani. She told reporters she wanted to “make
absolutely clear what is at stake in our relationship and the economic and other
kinds of support that we will legally have to cut off if democracy is not
restored.” Similar comments came from the European Union.

Expand

A supporter of Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP)
holds up a placard of General Abdourahamane Tiani in Niamey on Aug. 6.Source:
AFP/Getty Images

Concerned about the potential for contagion, the Economic Community of West
African States, a grouping of 15 regional countries currently led by Nigeria and
known as Ecowas, meanwhile, has threatened military intervention if Bazoum isn’t
reinstated.



The outsized global reaction shows how Niger has become one of the most
strategically significant nations on the continent. As one of the last
democracies in the region, it was the linchpin of the global fight against
jihadists linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State. It was also a key ally in
Europe’s effort to stop migration and the second-largest supplier of uranium to
the bloc in 2022. The US and the EU have invested billions of dollars over the
last decade in military installations and development aid in the country.

But none of these allies agree on a common strategy — and that creates
opportunities for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government has made
inroads in what is now a strip of military-run countries that runs from the
Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Red Sea in the east, in part through the
Wagner Group private military company.

Extremists are likely to take advantage of the chaos to expand their territory,
as they did in Burkina Faso and Mali. Niger’s military leadership should restore
constitutional order “in order to focus on security in the country,” the
regional bloc said following an Aug. 15 attack that left 17 Nigerien soldiers
dead and scores wounded.

Focused on trying to stay in power, the military may then “have no choice but to
go to Russia,” said Seidik Abba, president of the Centre International de
Reflexion et d’Etudes sur le Sahel, a think tank. “Wagner can also benefit,
that’s for sure.”

Listen • 4m42


NIGER COUP THREATENS CHAOS AS WEST FEARS RUSSIAN INFLUENCE (RADIO)




Expand

CNSP supporters protest near a French airbase in Niamey, on Aug. 11.Source:
AFP/Getty Images

Wagner already controls former French and UN bases in Mali. The prospect of it
seizing the $110 million US drone base outside Agadez in central Niger, remains
unlikely for now but could help explain the strong reactions to the coup.



France, whose continued presence in its former colonies is a source of
widespread anger in the region, has vowed to back any Ecowas action, including a
military intervention. The US, which will need to maintain relations with
whoever wins, is much more cautious. A senior French official acknowledged the
diverging approaches complicate matters.

“US interests in the Sahel are quite different from that of any outside country,
especially those of France or other European allies — it’s the prevention of
terrorism,” said J Peter Pham, a former US envoy to the Sahel. “It’s not
necessarily prevention of migration to Europe. It’s not maintenance of a
post-colonial economic system.”





The coup sparked demonstrations in support of the junta in Niamey, an opposition
stronghold, and smaller displays of support for Bazoum in other towns. Some coup
supporters waved Russian flags while denouncing France. There has not been a
huge reaction among the population of the world’s second-poorest nation. Life
was already difficult under Bazoum and in the decades prior, but if foreign
countries suspend aid, which provides 40% of the government’s budget, it will
get markedly worse.

Expand

A street vendor pushes his cart past burned cars outside the headquarters of
ousted President Bazoum’s Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism in Niamey
on Aug. 7.Source: AFP/Getty Images

The junta announced this week that it would prosecute Bazoum for “high treason,”
citing calls he has had during his house arrest with foreign leaders, including
French President Emmanuel Macron and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. It
also named a cabinet, demonstrating its intention to stay despite the threats
and sanctions that have seen food prices rise and Nigeria, which supplies 70% of
its electricity, shutting off power, sparking shortages.



Ecowas has sanctioned coup plotters in the past, but this time it moved quicker
and imposed much harsher penalties. Divisions over what to do next were on
display during a West African heads of states summit in the Nigerian capital,
Abuja, on Aug. 8.

Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara is among those pushing for
intervention, and has promised to contribute up to 1,100 troops. “The soldiers’
place is in the barracks,” he said. “They should be fighting insurgents and not
try to kidnap a democratically elected president.”

Expand

Ecowas President Omar Touray, left, greets Alassane Ouattara, at the Ecowas
summit in Abuja, on Aug. 10.Photographer: Koa Sulaimon/AFP/Getty Images

Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio agreed. “If we made mistakes in the
past, we should try to correct them now,” he said acknowledging the grouping
should have taken a tougher line on previous coups. “There’s always a point in
time to get started.”



Aminata Toure, who served as prime minister of Senegal for ten months in 2013
and 2014, meanwhile, warned that an invasion would be counter-productive. “The
reason for military coups is the inability of the civilian government to solve
the problems of the population,” she said. Ecowas should “stabilize democracies,
make constitutions solid so that civilians respect them, fight corruption and
spur economic development. They should improve access to education, healthcare,
improve food self-sufficiency, like in all other parts of the world.”



Read More: What’s Driving Coups in Niger and Across West Africa?

In any case, Nigeria, the bloc’s most influential and populous country, with its
biggest economy and military, would have to lead any intervention. Its troops
are stretched thin battling insecurity in every corner of its territory, while
lawmakers from the north — which shares a 1,000 mile border with Niger and
important cultural ties — have heavily criticized the idea of an invasion, which
analysts believe would only further destabilize the region.

In all this, Russia has been surprisingly quiet, according to Nina Wilen,
Director of the Africa Programme at the Brussels-based Egmont Royal Institute
for International Relations.

“I think Russia is trying to keep all doors open by calling for the release of
Bazoum while also expressing support for the junta through Wagner,” she said.
“That way they’ll have a way in no matter which way this goes.”



— With assistance by Samy Adghirni, Simon Marks, and Ekow Dontoh

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