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GEORISK: ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF RISK FOR ENGINEERED SYSTEMS AND GEOHAZARDS

Volume 14, 2020 - Issue 1
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Articles


STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE LARGEST POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ON THE
ECUADORIAN COAST FOR SELECTED RETURN PERIODS

Sandra García-Bustos Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de
Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y
Matemáticas, Guayaquil, EcuadorCorrespondenceslgarcia@espol.edu.ec

,
Jimmy Landín Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de Estudios
e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas,
Guayaquil, Ecuador
,
Ricardo Moreno Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de
Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y
Matemáticas, Guayaquil, Ecuador
,
A.S.E. Chong Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de Estudios
e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas,
Guayaquil, Ecuador
,
Maurizio Mulas Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de
Ingeniería en Ciencias de la Tierra, Guayaquil, Ecuador
,
Mónica Mite Universidad de Guayaquil, Facultad de Matemáticas, Ciudadela
Universitaria, Guayaquil, Ecuador
&
Nadia Cárdenas Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de
Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y
Matemáticas, Guayaquil, Ecuador
show all
Pages 56-68 | Received 27 Jun 2018, Accepted 05 Oct 2018, Published online: 07
Nov 2018
Pages 56-68
Received 27 Jun 2018
Accepted 05 Oct 2018
Published online: 07 Nov 2018
 * Download citation
 * https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2018.1542500
 * CrossMark


 



ARTICLES


STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE LARGEST POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ON THE
ECUADORIAN COAST FOR SELECTED RETURN PERIODS






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ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the
Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its
two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling
the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to
determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the
earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake
magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and
finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The
zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located
between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of
Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude
greater than 7.7 MW.

KEYWORDS:

 * Seismic recurrence time
 * extreme values
 * Ecuadorian coast
 * peaks-over-threshold
 * block maxima

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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.





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