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Home » News » OECD increases 2025 growth forecast
OECD INCREASES 2025 GROWTH FORECAST
6th December 2024
Commercial Credit Management
#world economy
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the UK
economy to grow at a slower pace this year than it had previously forecast.
However, it has upgraded its growth forecast for next year. The think-tank
expects 0.9% growth this year, down from 1.1%, while 2025 is forecast to see
growth of 1.7%, up from 1.2%. Looking further ahead, it forecasts that the
economy will grow by 1.3% in 2026. Globally, GDP is predicted to grow by 3.2%
this year and 3.3% in 2025.
Inflation in the OECD is expected to ease further, from 5.4% in 2024 to 3.8% in
2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary
policy in most countries. Headline inflation has already returned to central
bank targets in nearly half of the advanced economies and close to 60% of
emerging market economies.
Labour markets have gradually eased, yet unemployment remains low by historical
standards. Strong nominal wage gains and continued disinflation have bolstered
real household incomes. However, private consumption growth remains subdued in
most countries, reflecting weak consumer confidence. Global trade volumes are
recovering, with a projected increase of 3.6% in 2024.
Growth prospects vary significantly across regions. GDP growth in the United
States is projected to be 2.8% in 2025, before slowing to 2.4% in 2026. In the
euro area, the recovery in real household incomes, tight labour markets and
reductions in policy interest rates continue to drive growth. Euro area GDP
growth is projected at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Growth in Japan is
projected to expand by 1.5% in 2025 but then decline to 0.6% in 2026. China is
expected to continue to slow, with GDP growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said “The global economy has proved
resilient. Inflation has declined further towards central bank targets, while
growth has remained stable.
“Significant challenges remain. Geopolitical tensions pose short-term risks,
public debt ratios are high and medium-term growth prospects are too weak.
Policy action needs to safeguard macroeconomic stability – through monetary
policy easing that is carefully calibrated to ensure inflationary pressures are
durably contained and through fiscal policy that rebuilds fiscal space to
preserve room to meet future spending pressures. To boost productivity and the
foundations for growth, we must enhance education and skills development
efforts, undo overly stringent constraints to business investment and
successfully tackle the structural increase in labour shortages.”
The Outlook highlights persistent uncertainty. An intensification of the ongoing
conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt energy markets and hit confidence and
growth. Rising trade tensions might risk hampering trade growth. Adverse
surprises related to growth prospects, or the path of disinflation could trigger
disruptive corrections in financial markets. Growth could also surprise on the
upside. Improvements in consumer confidence, for example if purchasing power
recovers quicker than anticipated, could boost spending. An early resolution to
major geopolitical conflicts could also improve sentiment, and lower energy
prices.
To navigate these challenges, the Outlook emphasises the need to durably reduce
inflation, address rising fiscal pressures and tackle labour shortages to
alleviate structural impediments to higher trend growth.
Central bank policy rate reductions should continue in advanced economies except
Japan. The timing and extent of reductions should be carefully judged and remain
data-dependent, ensuring that underlying inflationary pressures are fully
contained.
Decisive fiscal action is needed to ensure the sustainability of public
finances, and provide the necessary resources for governments to tackle future
shocks and future spending pressures. Stronger near-term efforts to contain
spending growth, optimise revenues and enhance credible medium-term adjustment
paths need to be the cornerstone of efforts to stabilise debt burdens.
Ambitious structural reforms are necessary to reinvigorate weak potential output
growth. The policy mix needs to include efforts to enhance education and skills
development and reduce constraints in product and labour markets that impede
opportunities for investment and labour mobility.
OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira said “Structural reforms are essential to
lay the foundations for stronger, sustainable growth.
“Labour shortages are already a challenge for firms in many countries, and
population ageing will only exacerbate this. Policy action needs to ensure that
skills evolve with demands on labour markets and that labour force
participation, especially of older workers and women, rises.”
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