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ABC NEWS VIDEO LIVE SHOWS ELECTIONS 538 SHOP STREAM ON Election Dashboard Interactive Map Primaries: Archive 26 26 days to election day Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris Oct 10 ABC News Photo Illustration, AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Julia Demaree Nikhinson * THE 2024 RACE TO CONTROL THE HOUSE COULDN'T BE TIGHTER Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races. October 09, 2024 * WHAT AMERICANS THINK ABOUT THE WAR IN GAZA, A YEAR AFTER THE OCT. 7 ATTACKS They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid. October 07, 2024 * WHICH WAY ARE KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS LEANING IN THE 2024 ELECTION? Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November. October 04, 2024 * ABC News, Photo Illustration, Adobe stock HOW REDISTRICTING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE FIGHT TO CONTROL THE HOUSE IN 2024 North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts. October 09, 2024 LATEST 538 VIDEO * 2:32 ARE POLLS THAT USE AI CHATBOTS EVEN POLLS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 08, 2024 * 3:05 THE ELECTION MIGHT NOT BE THAT CLOSE AFTER ALL | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 08, 2024 * 2:01 WILL THERE BE A RACIAL REALIGNMENT IN THE 2024 ELECTION? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 08, 2024 * 1:41 HOW DOES A VP DEBATE AFFECT CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 03, 2024 * 1:45 WHAT ISSUES MATTER TO AMERICANS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 03, 2024 * 1:22 DOES A VP DEBATE IMPACT HOW VOTERS SEE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? Oct 03, 2024 * 3:30 HOW HARRIS IS DISTANCING HERSELF FROM BIDEN ON THE ECONOMY | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 01, 2024 * 2:35 HOW A SCANDAL IN NEW YORK COULD AFFECT THE NATIONAL HOUSE RACE Oct 01, 2024 * 2:50 WILL FOREIGN POLICY IMPACT THE 2024 ELECTION? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Oct 01, 2024 * 2:31 WHY YOU CAN'T PREDICT POLLING ERROR IN ADVANCE | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Sep 27, 2024 * 3:46 THE IMPORTANCE OF POLLS AND PUBLIC OPINION | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Sep 27, 2024 * 3:31 WHAT DOES A MARGIN OF ERROR IN POLLING MEAN? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST Sep 27, 2024 LATEST 538 HEADLINES October 10 TRUMP IS HOLDING MORE CAMPAIGN EVENTS THAN HARRIS But it probably doesn't matter. October 10 October 09 HOW REDISTRICTING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE FIGHT TO CONTROL THE HOUSE IN 2024 North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts. October 09 October 09 THE 2024 RACE TO CONTROL THE HOUSE COULDN'T BE TIGHTER Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races. October 09 October 09 HOW 538'S 2024 HOUSE ELECTION FORECAST WORKS Here's everything that goes into this year's model. October 09 October 08 ARE POLLS THAT USE AI CHATBOTS EVEN POLLS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about political preferences. October 08 October 08 THE ELECTION MIGHT NOT BE THAT CLOSE AFTER ALL | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate. October 08 October 08 WILL THERE BE A RACIAL REALIGNMENT IN THE 2024 ELECTION? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss crosstabs and whether they can predict a racial realignment on Election Day. October 08 October 07 WHAT AMERICANS THINK ABOUT THE WAR IN GAZA, A YEAR AFTER THE OCT. 7 ATTACKS They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid. October 07 October 04 WHICH WAY ARE KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS LEANING IN THE 2024 ELECTION? Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November. October 04 October 03 BLACK AND ARAB AMERICAN VOTERS COULD SWING MICHIGAN'S 2024 ELECTION Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states. October 03 October 03 HOW DOES A VP DEBATE AFFECT CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability. October 03 October 03 WHAT ISSUES MATTER TO AMERICANS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election. October 03 October 03 DOES A VP DEBATE IMPACT HOW VOTERS SEE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. October 03 October 02 WHAT EARLY POLLS SAY ABOUT WHO WON THE VP DEBATE Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won. October 02 October 01 HOW HARRIS IS DISTANCING HERSELF FROM BIDEN ON THE ECONOMY | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden. October 01 October 01 HOW A SCANDAL IN NEW YORK COULD AFFECT THE NATIONAL HOUSE RACE 538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House. October 01 October 01 WILL FOREIGN POLICY IMPACT THE 2024 ELECTION? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November. October 01 October 01 WHY VP DEBATES AREN'T ALL THAT IMPORTANT Historically, they haven't really moved the polls. October 01 September 30 THE 2024 ELECTION COULD COME DOWN TO A SINGLE TIPPING-POINT STATE A close contest means one state could decide the outcome. September 30 September 27 WHY YOU CAN'T PREDICT POLLING ERROR IN ADVANCE | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be. September 27 September 27 WHY THE GOP COULD WIN NEVADA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 20 YEARS Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. September 27 September 27 THE IMPORTANCE OF POLLS AND PUBLIC OPINION | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections. September 27 September 27 WHAT DOES A MARGIN OF ERROR IN POLLING MEAN? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls. September 27 September 27 EFFORTS TO ELECT MORE REPUBLICAN WOMEN STALLED IN THE 2024 PRIMARIES But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing. September 27 September 25 CAN YOU GUESS HOW AMERICANS FEEL ABOUT TRUMP'S PLATFORM? Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies. September 25 September 24 THIS COULD BE THE CLOSEST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1876 But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily. September 24 September 24 WHY DEMOCRATS ARE DOING BETTER IN SENATE RACES THAN PRESIDENTIALLY The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority. September 24 September 24 WILL THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE BENEFIT REPUBLICANS AGAIN? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024. September 24 September 24 WHAT DOES EARLY VOTING DATA REVEAL? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election. September 24 September 24 WHAT POLLING SAYS ABOUT KEY 2024 SENATE RACES 538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election. September 24 September 21 ARE REPUBLICANS STILL TALKING ABOUT ABORTION? Swing-district Republicans downplayed abortion in the 2024 primaries. September 21 September 20 HOW HARRIS TALKS ABOUT RACE AND GENDER ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign. September 20 September 20 WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT 'BLACK VOTERS FOR TRUMP' | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block. September 20 September 20 HOW IMPORTANT IS IDENTITY TO BLACK VOTERS? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies. September 20 September 20 CAN HARRIS WIN BACK BIDEN'S ISRAEL-GAZA CRITICS? Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war. September 20 September 18 IS THE GENDER GAP GROWING? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate. September 18 September 18 DOES THE TAYLOR SWIFT EFFECT INCLUDE VOTING? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race. September 18 September 18 WHAT DO VOTERS THINK ABOUT POLITICAL VIOLENCE? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence. September 18 September 17 MAKE YOUR PICKS ON THE 2024 INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race. September 17 September 11 WHY ABORTION WAS A BIGGER ISSUE IN THE HARRIS-TRUMP DEBATE | 538 POLITICS PODCAST The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden. September 11 September 11 HOW DID THE CANDIDATES PERFORM AT THE DEBATE? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate. September 11 September 11 DO AMERICANS KNOW KAMALA HARRIS BETTER AFTER THE DEBATE? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate. September 11 SUGGESTED INTERESTS Want the latest politics news? Get it in your inbox. Sign up for our emails to get the latest politics news from 538. 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