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Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
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NWS All NOAA
Hazard Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30 Excessive Rainfall No AreaNo AreaMarginal Heavy Snow
(≥ 4”)HighHighHigh Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area
WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
Winter Storm Severity Index
Experimental HeatRisk
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National Forecast Chart
Valid Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid Wed Oct 30, 2024
* Day 1
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View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter
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North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 18Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Sun Oct 27, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
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» Interactive Surface Map
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Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 18Z Mon Oct 28, 2024
Valid 00Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 06Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 18Z Tue Oct 29, 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30, 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Oct 31, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04, 2024
* 18ZMon
* 00ZTue
* 06ZTue
* 12ZTue
* 18ZTue
* 00ZWed
* 12ZWed
* 00ZThu
* 12ZThu
* 12ZFri
* 12ZSat
* 12ZSun
* 12ZMon
+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024
...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on
Tuesday...
...Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley...
...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday...
A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Great Basin and Southern
California will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great
Lakes southwestward to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
In the wake of the front, onshore flow off the Pacific will produce rain
over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Tuesday night.
In addition, scattered light snow will develop over the highest elevations
of the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the Northern Intermountain
Region, and the Great Basin through Wednesday. Lower-elevation rain will
also develop over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Northern/Central Rockies.
Further, intensifying upper-level energy over the Four Corners Region will
aid in producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies and higher elevations of the eastern Great Basin on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
rain over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Monday. On Tuesday, the
atmosphere along the Western Gulf Coast will become more unstable, so
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Western Gulf
Coast. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce rain over
parts of Florida on Monday. On Tuesday, the atmosphere will become more
unstable, so showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida.
Moreover, moist air will pool ahead of the front over the Great Lakes on
Monday, creating showers and thunderstorms. Rain will develop over parts
of the Northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning and also over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
Additionally, moisture will pool along the boundary over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains, producing
strong to severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley to Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024
...General Overview...
An initially energetic upper trough and moderate surface low will
lift northeastward from the Midwest through the Northeast
Thursday/Friday overtop a warm ambient upper ridge over the
eastern-southeastern U.S.. An associated cold front will swing
through the east-central to eastern U.S. to focus lingering showers
and thunderstorms and usher in moderating post-frontal high
pressure. The trailing portion of the front is forecast to
slow/dissipate, but remain a convective focus to eminate out from
the south-central U.S. with return flow. Meanwhile upstream, robust
Pacific upper trough energy digs sharply into an unsettled West,
with moderate rains and some elevation snows over the Northwest,
and more spotty activity further inland and down the coast across
California. This pattern may lead to closed trough/low development
near southern California/Baja. Warm and amplified subtropical
ridging over the Southeast look to remain in place through the
period.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Deterministic guidance is in good agreement for the early part of
the period (late week/early weekend) depicting an initial upper-
level shortwave over the Midwest passing over the East Coast by
Saturday. Upper-level ridging will build northward in its wake
ahead of upstream energies significantly deepening an upper-level
trough over the West. The main uncertainty is in the latter part of
the period early next week with respect to the finer details on
the evolution of the upper-trough over the West as well as the
degree of amplification/strength of the eastern upper-level ridge
and displacement of northern stream flow. The deterministic and
ensemble guidance differ on how upstream energies digging southward
in the West may lead to the development of a deep closed low over
the Baja/northwest Mexico. The past few runs of the GFS through 00Z
have shown a bit more amplified pattern with a sharpening upper-
trough and northward building ridge to the east, while the ECMWF
depicts the development of this closed cut-off low over Baja Mexico
with a strong but less amplified area of high pressure to the
east. The 06Z GFS did trend slightly closer to the more recent runs
of the ECMWF, suggesting the development of a weaker closed low
that does not cutoff from the mean flow, before the 12Z trended
back to showing varying northern/southern stream energies within
the broad trough but no trend to develop a closed low on the
southern end. Most of the guidance in the suite of AI models from
the EC actually tend to favor the pattern shown in the GFS. The
GEFS/ECens ensemble means are remarkably similar in placement with
a deep upper trough while the CMC ensemble mean develops a closed
low more similar to the ECMWF. The CMC ensemble is also less
amplified with the ridging over the east compared to the GEFS/ECens
and continues more zonal flow over the northern tier of the
country.
The updated WPC forecast uses a composite blend of the
deterministic guidance through the early to mid-period given good
agreement. Opted to include a contribution from the ECens and GEFS
means for the latter part of the period which, when the GFS remains
included, does not offer as much detail over the Baja/northwest
Mexico, but rather a compromise solution given uncertainties in the
evolution and lack of support from the EC AI guidance. While the
lingering uncertainties don't have a significant effect on the
broad overall pattern that will favor cooler temperatures in the
West, warmer temperatures in the East, and heavy precipitation
chances where the upper-jet/surface frontal systems remain in place
over the center of the country, varying evolutions/embedded energy
timing specifically over the West show larger discrepancies in
precipitation chances. For the QPF forecast, the means were relied
on more significantly in the West compared to central portions of
the country.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.
The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity to expand and focus
along a northeast-southwest axis ahead of additional frontal
boundaries Sunday and into early next week as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Multiple days of
southerly, moist Gulf flow look to increase the chances of more
widespread, heavy rainfall with flooding concerns despite dry
antecedent conditions, especially over the central/southern Plains
into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Precipitation associated with the next Pacific system and long-
fetch moisture is forecast to re-focus into the West Coast later in
the week and into next weekend, with high-elevation snow reaching
into the northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through
California. Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS
trends) should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the
cold frontal surge and possible closed low development at the
southern base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler
temperatures to much of the West to west-central U.S.. Some
lingering frost/freeze concerns will remain for southern areas that
have yet to reach freezing this season.
Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast Thursday before moderating into the weekend post-
frontal passage. Temperatures will return to above average early
next week.
Putnam/Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 00Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 00Z Tue Nov 05 2024
Guidance still indicates that deep pooled moisture may fuel some
enhanced showers and thunderstorms over the state today into
Tuesday under an upper low/weakness. A flood watch is in place in
the short term to address possible local runoff issues.
Predictability also seems above normal that high pressure will be
periodically reinforced while bridging to the north and settling
to the northeast of the state through the next week. This would
favor strengthened island trades and lead into a drier pattern
with mainly windward terrain favored showers. However, enhanced
shower activity may redevelop over the southern islands later week
pending influx and passage of deeper moisture associated with a
current eastern Pacific tropical disturbance being monitored.
Schichtel
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/30/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/31/2024 - 00Z 11/01/2024
Valid 00Z 11/01/2024 - 00Z 11/02/2024
Valid 00Z 11/02/2024 - 00Z 11/03/2024
Valid 00Z 11/03/2024 - 00Z 11/04/2024
Valid 00Z 11/04/2024 - 00Z 11/05/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 11/01/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 11/03/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 11/05/2024
Valid 18Z 10/28/2024 - 06Z 10/29/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 06Z 10/29/2024 - 18Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 18Z 10/29/2024 - 06Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 06Z 10/30/2024 - 18Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 18Z 10/30/2024 - 06Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 06Z 10/31/2024 - 18Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/31/2024 - 00Z 11/01/2024
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 06Z 10/29/2024
Valid 06Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/29/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 18Z 10/29/2024
Valid 18Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 00Z 10/30/2024 - 06Z 10/30/2024
Valid 06Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 18Z 10/30/2024
Valid 18Z 10/30/2024 - 00Z 10/31/2024
Valid 00Z 10/31/2024 - 06Z 10/31/2024
Valid 06Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/31/2024 - 18Z 10/31/2024
Valid 18Z 10/31/2024 - 00Z 11/01/2024
Valid 00Z 11/01/2024 - 00Z 11/03/2024
Valid 00Z 11/03/2024 - 00Z 11/05/2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
* Total: Day 1-2
* Day 1-3
* Day 1-5
* Day 1-7
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* Day 4/5
* Day 6/7
Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)
» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
Monitor
» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 1 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 1 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 2 2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Fracasso
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Fracasso
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Campbell
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Campbell
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight
Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for
heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The
Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for
the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be
two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first
near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders
amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into
Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent
conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG
guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems
appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future
guidance (including the CAM guidance).
Fracasso/Campbell
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight
Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for
heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The
Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for
the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be
two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first
near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders
amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into
Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent
conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG
guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems
appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future
guidance (including the CAM guidance).
Fracasso/Campbell
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.
The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity to expand and focus
along a northeast-southwest axis ahead of additional frontal
boundaries Sunday and into early next week as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Multiple days of
southerly, moist Gulf flow look to increase the chances of more
widespread, heavy rainfall with flooding concerns despite dry
antecedent conditions, especially over the central/southern Plains
into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Precipitation associated with the next Pacific system and long-
fetch moisture is forecast to re-focus into the West Coast later in
the week and into next weekend, with high-elevation snow reaching
into the northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through
California. Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS
trends) should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the
cold frontal surge and possible closed low development at the
southern base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler
temperatures to much of the West to west-central U.S.. Some
lingering frost/freeze concerns will remain for southern areas that
have yet to reach freezing this season.
Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast Thursday before moderating into the weekend post-
frontal passage. Temperatures will return to above average early
next week.
Putnam/Schichtel
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.
The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity to expand and focus
along a northeast-southwest axis ahead of additional frontal
boundaries Sunday and into early next week as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Multiple days of
southerly, moist Gulf flow look to increase the chances of more
widespread, heavy rainfall with flooding concerns despite dry
antecedent conditions, especially over the central/southern Plains
into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Precipitation associated with the next Pacific system and long-
fetch moisture is forecast to re-focus into the West Coast later in
the week and into next weekend, with high-elevation snow reaching
into the northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through
California. Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS
trends) should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the
cold frontal surge and possible closed low development at the
southern base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler
temperatures to much of the West to west-central U.S.. Some
lingering frost/freeze concerns will remain for southern areas that
have yet to reach freezing this season.
Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast Thursday before moderating into the weekend post-
frontal passage. Temperatures will return to above average early
next week.
Putnam/Schichtel
+ Additional Links
* » Product Info
* » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
* » Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology
Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 00Z 10/29/2024 - 00Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/29/2024 - 12Z 10/30/2024
Valid 12Z 10/30/2024 - 12Z 10/31/2024
Valid 12Z 10/31/2024 - 12Z 11/01/2024
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Valid 12Z 11/03/2024 - 12Z 11/04/2024
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Day 1-3 Image Options:
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Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts
Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
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Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
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» Winter Storm Severity Index
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024
...Western U.S....
Days 1-3...
An amplified upper trough moving across the western U.S. is
forecast to produce widespread mountain snow from the Pacific
Northwest and the Sierra Nevada to the northern and central
Rockies. Areas of heavy accumulations are expected, especially for
portions of the central Rockies on Tuesday.
A well-defined shortwave moving through the base of the upper
trough is expected to lift northeast from the Southwest through the
central Rockies on Tuesday. In addition to strong mid-to-upper
level forcing, upslope flow on the northwest side of an associated
low level wave moving across Wyoming, will likely support periods
of heavy snowfall along the favored terrain. Ranges that will be
impacted include the Wind River, southern Absaroka, and the Big
Horns. WPC probabilities are 50 percent or greater for
accumulations of 8 inches or more across parts of these areas.
Locally heavy snows are also likely in the Black Hills, with
amounts of 6 inches or more likely, according to WPC probabilities.
As the system lifts out of the Southwest, other areas impacted
will include the southwestern and west-central Colorado ranges,
including the San Juan and Elk mountains, where heavy heavy snows
are forecast to begin tonight, with storm totals, according to WPC
probabilities, likely reaching over a foot before snow diminishes
on Wednesday. Further west, widespread mountain snows are expected
along the Utah mountains as well, from the southern mountains to
the Uintas, with WPC probabilities indicating that locally heavy
amounts of 8 inches or more likely.
In the Northwest, onshore flow along the backside of the trough,
will continue to support unsettled weather across the region
through today. Snow levels will remain low enough to support light
accumulations along the higher Cascades passes. Snow is expected to
diminish on Tuesday as a shortwave ridge builds ahead of the next
approaching system. Precipitation will then return by late
Wednesday with the arrival of a frontal band associated with a deep
upper low dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring
the return of mountain snow to the Olympics and the Cascades and
the potential for impacts across the higher Cascades passes.
The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.
Pereira
+ Additional Links
* » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
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* » Other Winter Weather Products
Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31, 2024
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+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024
...General Overview...
An initially energetic upper trough and moderate surface low will
lift northeastward from the Midwest through the Northeast
Thursday/Friday overtop a warm ambient upper ridge over the
eastern-southeastern U.S.. An associated cold front will swing
through the east-central to eastern U.S. to focus lingering showers
and thunderstorms and usher in moderating post-frontal high
pressure. The trailing portion of the front is forecast to
slow/dissipate, but remain a convective focus to eminate out from
the south-central U.S. with return flow. Meanwhile upstream, robust
Pacific upper trough energy digs sharply into an unsettled West,
with moderate rains and some elevation snows over the Northwest,
and more spotty activity further inland and down the coast across
California. This pattern may lead to closed trough/low development
near southern California/Baja. Warm and amplified subtropical
ridging over the Southeast look to remain in place through the
period.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Deterministic guidance is in good agreement for the early part of
the period (late week/early weekend) depicting an initial upper-
level shortwave over the Midwest passing over the East Coast by
Saturday. Upper-level ridging will build northward in its wake
ahead of upstream energies significantly deepening an upper-level
trough over the West. The main uncertainty is in the latter part of
the period early next week with respect to the finer details on
the evolution of the upper-trough over the West as well as the
degree of amplification/strength of the eastern upper-level ridge
and displacement of northern stream flow. The deterministic and
ensemble guidance differ on how upstream energies digging southward
in the West may lead to the development of a deep closed low over
the Baja/northwest Mexico. The past few runs of the GFS through 00Z
have shown a bit more amplified pattern with a sharpening upper-
trough and northward building ridge to the east, while the ECMWF
depicts the development of this closed cut-off low over Baja Mexico
with a strong but less amplified area of high pressure to the
east. The 06Z GFS did trend slightly closer to the more recent runs
of the ECMWF, suggesting the development of a weaker closed low
that does not cutoff from the mean flow, before the 12Z trended
back to showing varying northern/southern stream energies within
the broad trough but no trend to develop a closed low on the
southern end. Most of the guidance in the suite of AI models from
the EC actually tend to favor the pattern shown in the GFS. The
GEFS/ECens ensemble means are remarkably similar in placement with
a deep upper trough while the CMC ensemble mean develops a closed
low more similar to the ECMWF. The CMC ensemble is also less
amplified with the ridging over the east compared to the GEFS/ECens
and continues more zonal flow over the northern tier of the
country.
The updated WPC forecast uses a composite blend of the
deterministic guidance through the early to mid-period given good
agreement. Opted to include a contribution from the ECens and GEFS
means for the latter part of the period which, when the GFS remains
included, does not offer as much detail over the Baja/northwest
Mexico, but rather a compromise solution given uncertainties in the
evolution and lack of support from the EC AI guidance. While the
lingering uncertainties don't have a significant effect on the
broad overall pattern that will favor cooler temperatures in the
West, warmer temperatures in the East, and heavy precipitation
chances where the upper-jet/surface frontal systems remain in place
over the center of the country, varying evolutions/embedded energy
timing specifically over the West show larger discrepancies in
precipitation chances. For the QPF forecast, the means were relied
on more significantly in the West compared to central portions of
the country.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Ahead of a sharpening front, a long fetch of return flow from the
Gulf of Mexico appears to initiate and support a lingering threat
of moderate to heavy rain over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
vicinity along with a possible severe weather threat holding into
Thursday. Maintained a WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal Risk
for this area, though the antecedent conditions are quite dry and
most of the rain will hopefully be beneficial.
The trailing portion of the front is then forecast to stall over
the southern Plains where moderate to heavy rainfall could
redevelop with ejecting impulses and instabilities. Accordingly, a
WPC ERO Marginal Risk has been introduced over the southern High
Plains to address potential. Expect activity to expand and focus
along a northeast-southwest axis ahead of additional frontal
boundaries Sunday and into early next week as robust upper
trough/closed low energy digs upstream into the West Coast to re-
amplify the flow over the Lower 48 and vicinity. Multiple days of
southerly, moist Gulf flow look to increase the chances of more
widespread, heavy rainfall with flooding concerns despite dry
antecedent conditions, especially over the central/southern Plains
into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Precipitation associated with the next Pacific system and long-
fetch moisture is forecast to re-focus into the West Coast later in
the week and into next weekend, with high-elevation snow reaching
into the northern Rockies and modest rains reaching down through
California. Here, rainfall could be heavier (per recent ECMWF AIFS
trends) should a slower/stronger solution verify. Regardless, the
cold frontal surge and possible closed low development at the
southern base of the main upper trough will bring in cooler
temperatures to much of the West to west-central U.S.. Some
lingering frost/freeze concerns will remain for southern areas that
have yet to reach freezing this season.
Upper ridging together with a pre-frontal long fetch of strong and
gusty southerly winds will transport warmth from the South through
the Northeast Thursday before moderating into the weekend post-
frontal passage. Temperatures will return to above average early
next week.
Putnam/Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
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Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
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*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
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Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.
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An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
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forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
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The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
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available out through 7 days.
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National Blend of Models
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post-processed model guidance.
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Western Weather and Water Extremes.
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range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.
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