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Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers,
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An apparel company wishes to promote its new line of high-end baby clothes. It
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A profile created for personalised advertising in relation to a person having
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Vendors we use for this purpose127 vendor(s)

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1-10 of 127




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1-10 of 77




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Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user
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Vendors we use for this purpose27 vendor(s)

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1-10 of 27




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A technology platform working with a social media provider notices a growth in
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connecting through mobile connections. It uses a new technology to deliver ads
that are formatted for mobile devices and that are low-bandwidth, to improve
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An advertiser is looking for a way to display ads on a new type of consumer
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kind of device to determine whether it can build a new mechanism for displaying
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Vendors we use for this purpose50 vendor(s)

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1-10 of 50




Below, you will find a list of the features for which your data is being
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Features
Match and combine data from other data sources

Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with
other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for
instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card
in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in
this notice.

Vendors we use for this purpose107 vendor(s)

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 * Adelaide
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 * Amazon Ad Server

1-10 of 107




Link different devices

In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
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connection on both devices).

Vendors we use for this purpose108 vendor(s)

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1-10 of 108




Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically

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Vendors we use for this purpose126 vendor(s)

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 * Adacado
 * Adara (Rate Gain)

1-10 of 126




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Use precise geolocation dataOff

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Vendors we use for this purpose64 vendor(s)

 * A.Mob
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 * AdGear
 * AdKernel
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 * Adrule mobile
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1-10 of 64




Actively scan device characteristics for identificationOff

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requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed
fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes
explained in this notice.

Vendors we use for this purpose23 vendor(s)

 * A.Mob
 * AdKernel
 * AdTheorent
 * Adcell (Firstlead)
 * Amnet GmbH
 * Cheq
 * Fraudlogix
 * Human
 * Hybrid
 * InMobi

1-10 of 23




Below, you will find a list of vendors processing your data and the purposes or
features of processing they declare. You may exercise your rights for each
vendor based on the legal basis they assert.
ConsentLegitimate interest
IAB TCF vendors
6senseIAB TCFOff

6sense stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 730 Day(s). This vendor
also uses other methods like "local storage" to store and access information on
your device.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device400 day(s)Create
profiles for personalised advertising400 day(s)Use profiles to select
personalised advertising400 day(s)Use limited data to select advertising400
day(s)Measure advertising performance400 day(s)Develop and improve services400
day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors400 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content400 day(s)

FeaturesMatch and combine data from other data sourcesLink different
devicesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Data categoriesIP addressesProbabilistic identifiersBrowsing and interaction
dataNon-precise location dataUsers’ profiles

A.MobIAB TCFOff

A.Mob stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 395 Day(s). This vendor
also uses other methods like "local storage" to store and access information on
your device.

Privacy policy

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device395 day(s)Use
limited data to select advertising395 day(s)Create profiles for personalised
advertising395 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised advertising395
day(s)Measure advertising performance395 day(s)Understand audiences through
statistics or combinations of data from different sources395 day(s)Develop and
improve services395 day(s)

FeaturesMatch and combine data from other data sourcesLink different
devicesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Special featuresUse precise geolocation dataActively scan device characteristics
for identification

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersProbabilistic
identifiersAuthentication-derived identifiersBrowsing and interaction
dataUser-provided dataNon-precise location dataPrecise location dataUsers’
profilesPrivacy choices

ADventoriIAB TCFOff

ADventori stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 90 Day(s). These
cookies may be refreshed. This vendor also uses other methods like "local
storage" to store and access information on your device.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device400 day(s)Use
limited data to select advertising90 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised
advertising90 day(s)Measure advertising performance400 day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors400 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content400 day(s)

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice identifiersAuthentication-derived
identifiersBrowsing and interaction dataUser-provided dataNon-precise location
data

AarkiIAB TCFOff

Aarki uses methods like "local storage" to store and access information on your
device.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device365 day(s)Use
limited data to select advertising365 day(s)Create profiles for personalised
advertising3650 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised advertising3650
day(s)Measure advertising performance1500 day(s)Develop and improve services365
day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors365 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content365 day(s)

FeaturesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersUser-provided
dataNon-precise location data

AcuityAdsIAB TCFOff

AcuityAds stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 365 Day(s). These
cookies may be refreshed.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device180 day(s)Create
profiles for personalised advertising180 day(s)Use profiles to select
personalised advertising180 day(s)Use limited data to select advertising180
day(s)Measure advertising performance180 day(s)Develop and improve services180
day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors180 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content180 day(s)

FeaturesLink different devices

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice
identifiersAuthentication-derived identifiersBrowsing and interaction
dataNon-precise location dataUsers’ profilesPrivacy choices

AdElement Media SolutionsIAB TCFOff

AdElement Media Solutions stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 365
Day(s). These cookies may be refreshed.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device180 day(s)Use
limited data to select advertising180 day(s)Create profiles for personalised
advertising90 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised advertising90
day(s)Measure advertising performance180 day(s)Understand audiences through
statistics or combinations of data from different sources90 day(s)Develop and
improve services180 day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors180 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content180 day(s)

FeaturesLink different devicesIdentify devices based on information transmitted
automatically

Special featuresUse precise geolocation data

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersBrowsing and
interaction dataUser-provided dataNon-precise location dataPrecise location
dataUsers’ profilesPrivacy choices

AdGearIAB TCFOff

AdGear stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 395 Day(s). This vendor
also uses other methods like "local storage" to store and access information on
your device.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device395 day(s)Create
profiles for personalised advertising395 day(s)Use profiles to select
personalised advertising395 day(s)Use limited data to select advertising395
day(s)Measure advertising performance395 day(s)Understand audiences through
statistics or combinations of data from different sources395 day(s)Develop and
improve services395 day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors395 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content395 day(s)

FeaturesMatch and combine data from other data sourcesLink different
devicesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Special featuresUse precise geolocation data

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersProbabilistic
identifiersAuthentication-derived identifiersBrowsing and interaction
dataUser-provided dataNon-precise location dataUsers’ profilesPrivacy choices

AdKernelIAB TCFOff

AdKernel stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 18 Day(s). These
cookies may be refreshed.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device180 day(s)Create
profiles for personalised advertising180 day(s)Use profiles to select
personalised advertising180 day(s)Understand audiences through statistics or
combinations of data from different sources180 day(s)Develop and improve
services180 day(s)Use limited data to select advertising180 day(s)Measure
advertising performance180 day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors180 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content180 day(s)

FeaturesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Special featuresUse precise geolocation dataActively scan device characteristics
for identification

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice identifiersNon-precise location dataPrecise
location dataUsers’ profiles

AdSpirit AdServerIAB TCFOff

AdSpirit AdServer stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 30 Day(s).
These cookies may be refreshed.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device60 day(s)Use limited
data to select advertising14 day(s)Create profiles for personalised
advertising60 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised advertising60
day(s)Measure advertising performance14 day(s)Understand audiences through
statistics or combinations of data from different sources60 day(s)

Special purposesRetentionEnsure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix
errors60 day(s)Deliver and present advertising and content60 day(s)

FeaturesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersProbabilistic
identifiersBrowsing and interaction dataNon-precise location dataUsers’
profilesPrivacy choices

AdTheorentIAB TCFOff

AdTheorent stores cookies with a maximum duration of about 730 Day(s). These
cookies may be refreshed.

Privacy policyLegitimate interest disclosure

PurposesRetentionStore and/or access information on a device365 day(s)Use
limited data to select advertising365 day(s)Create profiles for personalised
advertising365 day(s)Use profiles to select personalised advertising365
day(s)Measure advertising performance365 day(s)Understand audiences through
statistics or combinations of data from different sources365 day(s)Develop and
improve services365 day(s)

FeaturesMatch and combine data from other data sourcesLink different
devicesIdentify devices based on information transmitted automatically

Special featuresUse precise geolocation dataActively scan device characteristics
for identification

Data categoriesIP addressesDevice characteristicsDevice identifiersProbabilistic
identifiersNon-precise location dataPrecise location dataPrivacy choices

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Friday, February 2, 2024
Today’s Paper
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U.S. Economy

 * Jobs Report
 * The Fed’s Strategy
 * Interest Rates
 * G.D.P.
 * Inflation
 * ‘Magnificent Seven’ Stocks
 * The Bull Market, Explained

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT




JANUARY JOBS REPORTU.S. JOB GROWTH SURGES

The labor market added 353,000 jobs in January, far more than expected, in a
sign that economic growth remains vigorous.

Feb. 2, 2024Updated 2:55 p.m. ET
 * Share full articleShare free access
 * 
 * 

Monthly change in jobs

+353,000 jobs

in January

+400,000

jobs

+300,000

+200,000

+100,000

Jan.

’23

April

July

Oct.

Jan.

’24

+353,000 jobs

in January

+400,000 jobs

+300,000

+200,000

+100,000

Jan. ’23

April

July

Oct.

Jan. ’24

January Jobs Report: U.S. Job Growth Surges - The New York Times

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

Pinned

Lydia DePillis


JOB MARKET STARTS 2024 WITH A BANG.

The United States produced an unexpectedly sizable batch of jobs last month, a
boon for American workers that shows the labor market retains remarkable
strength after three years of expansion.

Employers added 353,000 jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the
Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7
percent.

The report also put an even shinier gloss on job growth for 2023, including
revisions that added more than 100,000 to the figure previously tallied for
December. All told, employers added 3.1 million jobs last year, more than the
2.7 million initially reported.

After the loss of 14 percent of the nation’s jobs early in the Covid-19
pandemic, the labor market’s endurance despite aggressive interest rate
increases has caught economists off guard.

“I think everyone is surprised at the strength,” said Sara Rutledge, an
independent economics consultant. “It’s almost like a ‘pinch me’ scenario.”

Ms. Rutledge helped tabulate the National Association for Business Economics’
latest member survey, which found rising optimism that the country would avoid a
recession — matching a turnaround in measures of consumer sentiment as inflation
has eased.

January’s crop of added jobs, nearly twice what forecasters had expected,
mirrors the similarly surprising strength in gross domestic product measurements
for the fourth quarter of 2023. It is also likely to reinforce the Federal
Reserve’s patient approach on interest rates, given the risk that increased
wages might push prices up faster.

Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, signaled this week that rate cuts would not begin
until at least May, citing a desire to see more evidence that inflation is
falling back to its target.


UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN UNDER 4 PERCENT FOR 24 MONTHS

Unemployment rate

14%

12

10

8

6

4

3.7%

2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

14%

12

10

8

6

4

3.7%

2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

January Jobs Report: U.S. Job Growth Surges - The New York Times

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

The latest job data prompted a victory lap from Biden administration officials,
who highlighted an unemployment rate only a few ticks above a 70-year low.

“The fact that that’s been below 4 percent for two years running now is just a
very clear and reliable signal that this is not just a tight labor market, but a
reliably and persistently tight labor market,” said Jared Bernstein, chair of
the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

January’s gains were also broader than has been the case in other recent
reports: Professional and business services accelerated to pile on 74,000 jobs,
while health care added 70,000. The only major sector to cut workers was mining
and logging.

Average hourly earnings also grew swiftly, at 0.6 percent from December.

Still, analysts cautioned against reading too much into the month’s overall
gain, given recent volatility in initial survey estimates. Last January, for
example, was much stronger than the full-year average. And the latest report
contains a few oddities, as well.

The survey window was interrupted by bone-chilling cold and snowstorms, possibly
shortening the workweek and raising hourly wages. Also, the addition of so many
relatively well-paid white-collar workers may have pulled up the average. Hotels
and restaurants, where pay is lower, shed a few thousand jobs.

Agron Nicaj, a U.S. economist at the banking and financial services firm MUFG,
noted that job postings had been elevated in professional and business services
for the past few months. That may mean January’s surge will be short-lived,
especially given the latest report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &
Christmas that found layoff announcements surged last month after a quiet
quarter.

“I wouldn’t expect a reacceleration because of the relationship with the
industries that grew this month and the openings,” Mr. Nicaj said. “I think this
month reflects a refilling of jobs that they couldn’t fill.”

Year-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation

+8%

+6

AVG. HOURLY

EARNINGS

+4.5%

in Jan.

+4

CONSUMER

PRICE INDEX

+3.4%

in Dec.

+2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

+8%

+6

AVG. HOURLY

EARNINGS

+4.5%

in Jan.

+4

CONSUMER

PRICE INDEX

+3.4%

in Dec.

+2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024



Note: Earnings data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

And yet it’s clear that the new year dawned on what has been an exceptionally
good economy for many workers. Wages have been growing faster than their
historical rates, and a strong increase in productivity over the last three
quarters has helped keep those fatter paychecks from fueling higher prices. The
number of open jobs still exceeds the stock of people looking for positions,
even as new immigrants and women have joined or rejoined the work force in
unexpected numbers.

That trend may continue if higher wages keep bringing people off the sidelines.
The number of people not in the labor force who want a job has surged in recent
months, to 5.8 million, suggesting that they could jump back in if pay
outweighed the cost of child care or a long commute.

Over the past year, most gains have been powered by sectors that either took
longer to recover from the pandemic — including hospitality and local
governments — or have outsize momentum because of structural factors, such as
aging demographics and pent-up demand for housing. Construction firms have kept
hiring even in the face of high interest rates, because homeowners with low-rate
mortgages are generally staying put, leaving new homes as the only option for
would-be buyers.


THE EDUCATION AND HEALTH SECTOR LEADS IN JOB GAINS

Change in jobs in January 2024, by sector

+112,000 jobs

Education and health

Business

services

+74,000

+45,200

Retail

+36,000

Government

+23,000

Manufacturing

Leisure and

hospitality

+11,000

+11,000

Construction

+112,000 jobs

Education and health

+74,000

Business services

+45,200

Retail

Government

+36,000

+23,000

Manufacturing

+11,000

Leisure and hospitality

+11,000

Construction

January Jobs Report: U.S. Job Growth Surges - The New York Times

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

Other categories that experienced supersize growth during 2021 and 2022,
including transportation, warehousing and information technology, have been
falling back to their prepandemic trends. Another handful of sectors, such as
retail, have been largely flat.

One of those who jumped from a shrinking sector into a more stable one is Galvin
Moore, 33, who worked in information technology for a freight broker until last
fall, when he noticed the trucking sector contracting around him.

“It’s not just job security — it’s also the fear that you own career growth
becomes limited by the industry,” said Mr. Moore, who is married with three
children in a Houston suburb. He left for a position at an oil and gas services
firm that is moving into technologies like geothermal energy and carbon capture.
“They’re in growth mode, too,” Mr. Moore added, “It’s just a different phase of
the cycle.”

The new gig also came with a 40 percent pay increase, which has allowed him to
start paying down debt and think about buying a new house. “It’s like night and
day,” Mr. Moore said.

Despite the prominent announcements of layoffs at companies like UPS, Google and
Microsoft, most employers have been loath to part with workers, worried about
being short-staffed if business picks up again. Although the share of workers
quitting their jobs has fallen back to normal levels after a surge in 2022,
Americans seem comfortable enough with their financial futures to keep spending
money.

That has led to splurges on services like travel agencies, which saw their
revenues sink almost to zero during the worst of the pandemic. While still a few
thousand employees shy of 2019 levels, the American Society of Travel Advisors
says the Bureau of Labor Statistics data does not reflect a surge of workers who
have joined the industry as independent contractors, often working part time to
supplement other jobs.

Kareem George, who runs a 10-person agency near Detroit that designs custom
vacations, said his bookings were 20 percent above 2019 levels, with clients
increasingly asking for luxury experiences like high-end dinners and private
tours.

“I think there’s more confidence that they can plan longer term,” said Mr.
George, who expects to hire two more people in the year ahead. “So they’re not
thinking so much of, ‘I deserve it, I need to do it now,’ but also ‘I can also
think about next year and the year after.’”

In the coming months, economists had expected the labor market to become more
like its prepandemic self, without the giant job growth that followed the
pandemic lockdowns. The latest numbers may call that assessment into question.

Even manufacturing, which has been in a mild recession for about a year, added
23,000 positions. That reflects optimism in the latest purchasing managers index
for manufacturing, which jumped unexpectedly last month. Timothy Fiore, the
chair of the Institute for Supply Management committee that oversees the survey,
said it seemed like the beginning of a turnaround, even if a slow one.

“Now we’re starting to gain altitude,” Mr. Fiore said. “It’s not a fighter pilot
gain; it’s a cargo plane gain.”

Jim Tankersley contributed reporting.

Show more
Feb. 2, 2024, 11:13 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

J. Edward Moreno

United Parcel Service joined a slew of tech companies in announcing that it
would be reducing its headcount this year. The company said on Tuesday that it
would cut 12,000 jobs in an effort to slash costs as wages rise and its package
volumes fall.

Feb. 2, 2024, 11:16 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

J. Edward Moreno

Transportation and warehousing companies and tech firms went on hiring sprees
during the pandemic, but explosion of e-commerce has slowed.“Both industries are
also laying off workers now as they realize that some of those pandemic trends
didn’t end up playing out how they thought they would,” said Daniel Zhao, lead
economist at Glassdoor.

Feb. 2, 2024, 10:15 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Joe Rennison

Stocks are clinging on to gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.3 percent, after the much
hotter-than-expected jobs numbers. Some investors worry that the data will
prolong an environment of high interest rates, with the two-year Treasury yield,
which is sensitive to interest rate expectations, moving sharply higher.


S&P 500


Jan. 31

Feb. 1

Feb. 2

4,850

4,900

4,950






Data delayed at least 15 minutes

Source: FactSet

By John-Michael Murphy



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Feb. 2, 2024, 10:15 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

J. Edward Moreno

The closely watched University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment released
this morning rose in January to the highest point since July 2021, suggesting
consumers have an increasingly rosy outlook on the economy. The survey also
showed that consumer expectations that inflation would continue are easing.

Feb. 2, 2024, 10:06 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Jim Tankersley

President Biden, quite predictably, celebrated the banner report. “America’s
economy is the strongest in the world. Today, we saw more proof,” he said in a
statement.

Feb. 2, 2024, 10:07 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Jim Tankersley

Mr. Biden also continued to acknowledge more work to be done on bringing down
costs for consumers, which remains a huge concern for voters.

Feb. 2, 2024, 10:01 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Jeanna Smialek


ECONOMISTS EXPECTED A HIRING SLOWDOWN. SO MUCH FOR THAT.

Job gains remain rapid, unemployment is near a historic low and wage gains are
robust nearly two years into the Federal Reserve’s campaign to cool the economy
with higher interest rates — an outcome that has surprised policymakers and
economic forecasters alike.

At this time last year, Fed officials were predicting that unemployment would
have spiked to 4.6 percent by now. Instead, it stands at 3.7 percent.

Central bankers have for months said that they were hearing anecdotal evidence
that the job market had begun to slow down: The Fed’s recent Beige Book
summaries of anecdotal reports from around the country have suggested that
hiring was slight or even flat in parts of the country. But while hiring cooled
somewhat last year, no big fissures have shown through to the actual data.

In fact, there are signs that the labor market is still very solid — something
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged this week.

“We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down,” Mr.
Powell said. “So I think whereas a year ago, we were thinking that we needed to
see some softening in the economy, that hasn’t been the case. We look at
stronger growth — we don’t look at it as a problem.”

Mr. Powell and his colleagues have suggested that the labor market has come back
into balance as the supply of workers has recovered, something that has been
helped along by a rebound in immigration and a recent jump in labor force
participation. The number of job openings in the economy has slowly nudged down.

But few if any economists expected job gains to remain this robust at a time
when higher interest rates were expected to meaningfully weigh down the economy.
In fact, many forecasters were predicting an outright recession early last year.

The question for the Fed is what it means if the job market not only fails to
slow down as anticipated, but actually accelerates again. While one month of
data does not make a trend, officials are likely to keep an eye on strong hiring
and wage growth.

Mr. Powell said this week that robust growth in and of itself would not worry
the Fed — or necessarily prevent them from lowering interest rates this year —
so long as inflation continued to come down. But central bankers could become
more wary if solid wage gains and a booming economy help to keep consumers
spending so much that it gives companies the wherewithal to keep raising prices.

“If there was a real concern that we were getting a re-acceleration, it might
get them to pause a little bit,” said Kathy Bostjancic, the chief economist at
Nationwide. But for now, “they’re more apt now to respond to a weakening in the
labor market than to continued strength.”


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Feb. 2, 2024, 9:54 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Talmon Joseph Smith

Team Biden and its allies, unsurprisingly, are thrilled with this report, as
President Biden enters a challenging election year. Bharat Ramamurti, a key
economic adviser, and the former deputy director for the National Economic
Council, texted this: “Spectacular report across the board. Huge beat in jobs,
wages rising robustly, prime-age employment growing. It’s the Energizer Bunny
economy.”

Feb. 2, 2024, 9:46 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Talmon Joseph Smith

This jobs report also shows that the recent good news on productivity may keep
coming. Average wages rose more than expected, but the average workweek shrank a
bit too. That gives a hint that employers may be finding ways to “do more with
less.” That’s not ideal for people who want to work overtime hours. But it does
tend to drive productivity — which is generally measured as total output in the
economy per hour worked by the labor force.

Feb. 2, 2024, 9:41 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman


REVISIONS SHOW EVEN STRONGER JOB GROWTH IN 2023 THAN FIRST REPORTED.

Job growth was strong in 2023. Revised data makes it look even stronger.

The Labor Department on Friday said that employers added 3.1 million jobs last
year, more than the 2.7 million initially reported last month. That makes 2023
the best year for job growth since 1999 — not counting the previous two years,
when the labor market was still emerging from its pandemic hole.

The revisions were part of an annual process in which monthly estimates are
reconciled with data collected by state agencies that is more accurate but less
timely. They don’t change the big picture: Job growth has still slowed since the
peak of the post-lockdown rehiring boom, but has remained resilient. But the
updated data suggest that the slowdown has been even more gradual than
previously believed.

The payroll estimates that the Labor Department releases each month — including
the surprisingly strong January report on Friday morning — are based on a survey
of about 122,000 employers. Each year, the government revises those estimates to
bring them in line with more definitive data collected by states through their
unemployment insurance systems.

The adjustments released on Friday incorporated state-level data through last
March. Those figures showed that employment was actually lower, by 266,000 jobs,
than previously reported, reflecting somewhat slower job growth in 2022.

But Labor Department statisticians also revised the more recent estimates, using
what they learned from the state data to improve their models. Those adjustments
showed job growth was stronger in 2023.

As in most years, this year’s revisions were relatively small: only about
one-tenth of 1 percent of total employment. But revisions in some sectors were
meaningful. Retailers added about 63,000 more jobs in 2023 than previously
reported, and the leisure and hospitality sector added 92,000 more jobs than in
earlier estimates.

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Feb. 2, 2024, 9:30 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Talmon Joseph Smith

Coming into this week, there was a worry that job gains were narrowing to less
cyclical sectors like government and health care. Sometimes, that portends
weakness in the private sector. The January numbers should leave those worries
behind for now as business services, retail and manufacturing all posted solid
gains.


THE EDUCATION AND HEALTH SECTOR LEADS IN JOB GAINS

Change in jobs in January 2024, by sector

+112,000 jobs

Education and health

Business

services

+74,000

+45,200

Retail

+36,000

Government

+23,000

Manufacturing

Leisure and

hospitality

+11,000

+11,000

Construction

+112,000 jobs

Education and health

+74,000

Business services

+45,200

Retail

Government

+36,000

+23,000

Manufacturing

+11,000

Leisure and hospitality

+11,000

Construction

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

Feb. 2, 2024, 9:20 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Talmon Joseph Smith

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent in January. We have become so
used to these low jobless rates that the news seems routine. But it is
impressive by modern standards: The unemployment rate has been below 4 percent
for 24 months, an over 50-year record.


UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN UNDER 4 PERCENT FOR 24 MONTHS

Unemployment rate

14%

12

10

8

6

4

3.7%

2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

14%

12

10

8

6

4

3.7%

2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Note: Data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Ella Koeze

Feb. 2, 2024, 9:04 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Jeanna Smialek


BLOCKBUSTER JOBS REPORT BACKS UP FED’S PATIENCE AS IT WAITS TO CUT RATES

Year-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation

+8%

+6

AVG. HOURLY

EARNINGS

+4.5%

in Jan.

+4

CONSUMER

PRICE INDEX

+3.4%

in Dec.

+2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

+8%

+6

AVG. HOURLY

EARNINGS

+4.5%

in Jan.

+4

CONSUMER

PRICE INDEX

+3.4%

in Dec.

+2

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Note: Earnings data is seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged this week and signaled
that their next move was likely to be a cut — but they also suggested that they
were in no hurry to make that change. Friday’s jobs data is likely to reinforce
their cautious stance.

Employers hired much more rapidly than expected in January, and average hourly
earnings climbed 4.5 percent over the year, the fastest pace since September and
a reversal after months of cooling.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, made it clear during his news conference on
Wednesday that the central bank was not bent on keeping interest rates high just
to slow down the labor market, but the report suggested that the economy might
not be cooling quite as much as policymakers had expected.

Given that continued strength, the Fed is unlikely to feel pressure to cut
interest rates at its next meeting on March 19-20. Policymakers do not want to
hold borrowing costs too high for too long and risk a painful recession, but the
data suggests that a possible downturn remains very much at bay. Instead of
faltering, the job market is booming.

The central bank’s policy rate is now set at 5.25 to 5.5 percent, a level high
enough that economists think it will cool the economy as it trickles through
financial markets and weighs on mortgage, credit card and business borrowing.

The Fed’s goal in trying to cool the economy is to rein in inflation, and price
increases have been receding: Over the past six months, inflation data have been
close to normal.

But that has come without much of a broader economic slowdown. Job openings have
come down and the housing market slowed in reaction to higher rates, but both
hiring and consumer spending have remained surprisingly resilient.

Mr. Powell suggested this week that the Fed would like to see more evidence that
inflation was coming under control before it began to cut interest rates and
that it was unlikely to have enough data to feel confident in that before the
March meeting.

Markets sharply dialed back the chances of a rate cut at that gathering after
the January jobs data.

Notably, Mr. Powell said the Fed was willing to be patient — rather than wary
and reactive — as it waited for wage growth to slow to normal levels. Some
economists think that the relatively quick pace of wage gains could prevent
inflation from stabilizing at 2 percent over time, if it continued.

“I think the labor market by many measures is at or near normal, but not totally
back to normal,” Mr. Powell said. “Job openings are not quite back to where they
were,” and wage increases “are not quite back to where they were.”

He added that wage increases “probably will take a couple of years to get all
the way back, and that’s OK.”

The strong January wage number did come in part as employees worked fewer hours
— which meant that earnings per hour were measured against a smaller base,
potentially inflating them. Given that, the big monthly pop should be taken
“with a large grain of salt,” wrote Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights.

But other signs of strength in the report were fairly broad-based.

Given Mr. Powell’s comments — and how much inflation had come down in recent
months — Kathy Bostjancic, the chief economist at Nationwide, said the Fed could
still proceed with rate cuts this year even with a very strong labor market. She
expects a move lower in May or June.

“It seems like inflation is the primary driver,” Ms. Bostjancic said, versus the
strength in the fresh jobs numbers. “This should have a very modest impact on
the timing — and even the degree — of rate cuts.”

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Feb. 2, 2024, 9:04 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman

After today’s revisions, employers added more than 3 million jobs in 2023. That
makes it the best year for job growth since 1999, not counting the immediately
preceding two years (when employment was emerging from its pandemic hole).

Feb. 2, 2024, 9:04 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Talmon Joseph Smith

One of the most remarkable bits from this jobs report? A jump in average hourly
earnings to 4.5 percent on an annual basis. That underlines how “real,”
inflation-adjusted, wage gains, which lagged behind price increases for nearly
two years, have now been in positive territory over the past several months.

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:55 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Joe Rennison

“This is not a report that is commensurate with cutting in March,” said Lauren
Goodwin, an economist a chief market strategist at New York Life Investments.
Investors’ bets have shifted sharply to the Fed’s first cut to interest rates
now coming in May. “We have to take it for what it is," Ms. Goodwin said. “It’s
a good report.”

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:41 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman

Health care and social assistance again made up a big chunk of job growth,
accounting for more than 100,000 of the 353,000 jobs added last month. The
public sector was also a big contributor, adding 36,000 jobs.

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:55 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman

Some economists have been concerned that job growth has been narrowing, with
only a few sectors accounting for a large share of the growth. Those concerns
won’t be front and center today given the exceptional overall growth. But they
may not go away entirely.

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Feb. 2, 2024, 8:41 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Joe Rennison

Stocks are slipping and bond yields are shooting higher after an unexpectedly
fast pace of hiring in January, coupled with strong wage growth. The numbers are
likely to dampen expectations of interest rate cuts coming anytime soon, with
the yield on the two-year Treasury bond, which is sensitive to changes in rate
expectations, rising sharply.

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:33 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman

Well THAT is a surprise. U.S. employers added a whopping 353,000 jobs in
January, far more than forecasters were expecting.

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:40 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman

Estimates for November and December were also revised up, by a combined 126,000
jobs.

Feb. 2, 2024, 8:21 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Joe Rennison

Ahead of the fresh jobs data, stock futures, which give investors the ability to
bet on the market ahead of the official start of trading, are rising. It’s been
a topsy-turvy week for the market, with the S&P 500 still on course to post it’s
fourth consecutive week of gains.

Feb. 2, 2024, 6:45 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Ben Casselman


REVISIONS COULD SHOW SOFTER JOB GROWTH IN 2023.

Job growth was strong in 2023 — but probably not quite as strong as initially
reported.

The Labor Department on Friday will revise its estimate of job growth in 2022
and 2023, part of an annual process in which monthly estimates are reconciled
with data collected by state agencies that is more accurate but less timely.

The changes aren’t likely to be huge. Preliminary data released in August
indicated that employers added about 25,000 fewer jobs per month in late 2022
and early 2023 than originally believed. That wouldn’t be enough to alter the
fundamental picture of a labor market that is gradually slowing but proving
surprisingly resilient.

The payroll estimates that the Labor Department releases each month — including
the January data that will be released on Friday morning — are based on a survey
of about 122,000 employers. Each year, the government revises those estimates to
bring them in line with more definitive data collected by states through their
unemployment insurance systems.

The adjustments released on Friday will incorporate state-level data through
last March. More recent estimates will also be revised because Labor Department
statisticians will use what they learned from the state data to improve their
models.

The annual revisions are usually small — only about one- or two-tenths of 1
percent of total nonagricultural employment — although they can occasionally be
more significant. Revisions can also be larger for individual sectors. The
preliminary data released in August, for example, showed that the transportation
and warehousing industries cut jobs more quickly than first reported, while
retail and wholesale companies added jobs more quickly than believed.

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Feb. 2, 2024, 6:15 a.m. ETFeb. 2, 2024
Feb. 2, 2024

Steve Lohr and Tripp Mickle


AS THE TECH INDUSTRY SHEDS WORKERS, OTHER SECTORS PICK THEM UP.

In a reordering of the market for tech workers, more job seekers are looking
beyond the Big Tech employers to companies in other industries that increasingly
offer good opportunities.

Dispersing talent should be welcomed, some analysts say. “If this transition
redeploys skilled tech workers to other sectors of the economy, that may very
well be a healthy development,” said Tim Herbert, chief research officer at
CompTIA, a technology education and research organization.

After frenzied growth and hiring during the worst of the pandemic, the tech
sector is going in reverse. Layoffs, hiring freezes and recruiting slowdowns are
the order of the day at a lengthening list of well-known tech companies
including Meta, Twitter, Alphabet, Amazon, DoorDash, Lyft, Snap and Stripe, as
well as at venture-backed start-ups.

Still, overall tech employment has grown this year, to a record 6.39 million in
November, according to government statistics. That was slightly up from the
previous month and a 12 percent increase from November 2021.

Today, a majority of tech jobs are at companies outside the tech sector in
industries like banking, retail, health care and manufacturing whose operations
are increasingly becoming digital. These mainstream companies, unlike their
Silicon Valley counterparts, did not go on manic hiring sprees during the
pandemic. But they continue to invest in tech skills.

“Nearly every company is going through this — they need tech talent,” said Lori
Beer, global chief information officer at JPMorgan Chase.


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