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Submission: On May 03 via manual from US — Scanned from DE
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Cprime > Resource Center > Blog > Agile > Estimating the Sizes of Epics
ESTIMATING THE SIZES OF EPICS
Many, and perhaps most, agile teams use Planning Poker to estimate the sizes of
their user stories. Agile projects can have up to a few hundred, even a few
thousand (in multi-year projects) user stories. If building the requirements
runway is done entirely upfront (i.e. before the sprints start), the writing and
estimation of the user stories may take a few weeks or longer, making the
project look more like a waterfall rather than an agile project.
If we just spread the estimation of the user story sizes throughout the agile
project rather than do it all upfront, we still need a way to come up with the
initial point (or at least an early point within the first 3 to 4 sprints) on
the product/release burndown chart. Determining such an early point requires
that we know the summation of the user story sizes for the product/release.
Note that knowing such a point on the product/release burndown chart is crucial
for the early determination of whether the agile project can achieve on-time
delivery of the functionality on the product/release backlog. This is because
after 3 to 4 Sprints, we can divide the initial (or early) point on the
product/release burndown chart by the average velocity of the agile team to see
how many sprints are needed to complete the backlog.
To determine such an early point on the product/release burndown chart without
being bogged down by an inordinately long building of the requirements runway,
Planning Poker can be done on epics rather than on individual user stories –
after all, what’s an epic but a big, fat user story. Since the number of epics
would be much less than the number of user stories, the time required for such
estimation would be much shorter to spend at the beginning of the project to get
an initial point on the product/release burndown chart. The agile team can
proceed in one of the following two ways to poker-plan epics: time required for
such estimation would be much shorter to spend at the beginning of the project
to get an initial point on the product/release burndown chart. The agile team
can proceed in one of the following two ways to poker-plan epics:
1. Once a list of epics is obtained, either directly from the product owner
(PO), or from the PO working with other stakeholders and with the agile
team, the team can proceed to poker-plan (i.e. estimate the sizes) of the
epics before breaking any epic into its constituent user stories. Each
scored size is then multiplied by ten to recognize the larger size-scale of
epics (as compared to user stories). For example, if an epic is scored to
have 13 points, its size will be captured as 130; if it’s scored at 40, its
size will be 400, and so on.
This technique requires that the planning-poker participants possess enough
insight into the domain of the agile project to be able to come up with such
epic estimates without first breaking them down into their respective user
stories.
In any event, when the first epic is broken down into stories, and the stories
are completed in the Sprints, the total size of the stories may end up being
different from the originally estimated epic size. So an epic with an
originally estimated size of 130 may yield stories that add up to 200 points.
In such a case, the rest of the epic sizes be scaled up (or down) accordingly.
So a yet-to-be-broken-down epic of a size of 400 would in this case be scaled up
to (200/130)x400 = 615 points. This allows the team to come up with a more
accurate estimate of how many more Sprints are needed to finish the work.
1. If the poker-planning participants do not possess enough insight into the
domain of the agile project to be able to come up with such epic estimates,
I found that such teams can develop better insight for estimation if they
start with poker-planning user stories first, and then proceed with
estimating epics. The team can select about 10% or fewer (as experience has
shown) of the epics as representative epics for breakdown into their
respective constituent user stories, poker-plan the user stories, add up the
sizes of the user stories to come up with a total for each representative
epic, and then use the sizes of the representative epics to poker-plan the
remaining epics.
For an epic to be “representative”, it needs to be conducive to comparisons with
other (non-broken-down-into-user-stories) epics for size estimation. For
example, in a system that processes health insurance claims, “process
professional claims” can be selected as a representative epic to break down into
user stories, and then to compare its total size to other (non-broken-down)
epics like “process institutional claims,” “process dental claims,” etc.
To recap, early in an agile project estimating first the sizes of epics enables
the team to relatively quickly get an estimate of the total size of the release
backlog. This total size is important to begin to figure out how many sprints
it will take to complete the release, especially for a large project. The team
should still estimate the sizes of individual user stories, which can follow the
estimation of epic sizes.
ICAGILE COURSEWARE LICENSING
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agileAgile TeamBacklogEpicestimationplanning pokersprint planningUser Story
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