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SBP ANNOUNCES HUGE INCREASE IN INTEREST RATE AFTER EMERGENCY MEETING

By Ahsan Gardezi | Published Mar 2, 2023 | 4:40 pm
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The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday
raised the policy rate by 300 basis points to 20 percent.





The announcement was made by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad
in a press conference following the MPC’s meeting.

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At 20 percent, this is the highest ever policy rate since October 1996,
according to Arif Habib Limited (AHL).






ALSO READ
Pakistan Received $6.13 Billion Foreign Loans in 7 Months of FY23

MPC STATEMENT

In today’s meeting, the MPC noted that the recent fiscal adjustments and
exchange rate depreciation have led to a significant deterioration in the
near-term inflation outlook and a further upward drift in inflation
expectations, as reflected in the latest wave of surveys. The Committee expects
inflation to rise further in the next few months as the impact of these
adjustments unfolds before it begins to fall, albeit at a gradual pace.

The average inflation this year is now expected in the range of 27 – 29 percent
against the November 2022 projection of 21 – 23 percent. In this context, the
MPC emphasized that anchoring inflation expectations is critical and warrants a
strong policy response.

DEBT REPAYMENTS HURTING FOREX RESERVES, RUPEE

On the external side, the MPC noted that despite a substantial reduction in the
current account deficit (CAD), vulnerabilities continue to persist. In January
2023, the CAD fell to $242 million, the lowest level since March 2021.
Cumulatively, the CAD – at $3.8 billion in Jul-Jan FY23 – is down 67 percent
compared to the same period last year. Notwithstanding this improvement,
scheduled debt repayments and a decline in financial inflows amid rising global
interest rates and domestic uncertainties, continue to exert pressure on FX
reserves and the exchange rate.


ALSO READ
US Dollar ‘Not Out’ At 285 Against PKR in Less Than 3 Hours

The MPC noted that FX reserves remain low and concerted efforts are needed to
improve the external position. In this regard, the conclusion of the ongoing 9th
review under the IMF’s EFF will help address near-term external sector
challenges. Furthermore, the MPC stressed the urgent need for energy
conservation measures to alleviate pressure on the external account and meet the
import requirements of other sectors.

Recent fiscal measures – including an increase in GST and excise duties,
reduction in subsidies, adjustments in energy prices, and the austerity drive –
are expected to help contain the otherwise widening fiscal and primary deficits.
As highlighted in earlier statements, the envisaged fiscal consolidation is
critical for economic stability and will complement the ongoing monetary
tightening in bringing down inflation over the medium term. The Committee
emphasized that any significant fiscal slippages will undermine monetary policy
effectiveness in the context of achieving the price stability objective.

FUTURE

The MPC also assessed the impact of further monetary tightening on financial
stability and the near-term growth outlook. The Committee views that the risks
to financial stability remain contained, given that financial institutions are
broadly well capitalized. On growth, however, there exists a trade-off.


ALSO READ
Govt to Borrow Via Instruments Other Than Sukuks, NPCs As Money Problems Persist

The MPC, nonetheless, reiterated its earlier view that the short-term costs of
bringing down inflation are lower than the long-term costs of allowing it to
become entrenched. Barring unexpected future shocks, the MPC noted that today’s
decision has pushed the real interest rate into positive territory on a
forward-looking basis. This will help anchor inflation expectations and steer
inflation to the medium-term target of 5 – 7 percent by the end of FY25.

AHSAN GARDEZI




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