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CHARTS SHOW SA ON THE BRINK OF COVID-19 THIRD WAVE

18th May 202114th May 2021 by [email protected]
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By Leah Wilson

(Bloomberg) – South Africa is on the brink of a third wave of coronavirus
infections, driven by a steady increase in new cases after a four-day holiday
weekend that saw millions of people travel to see family and friends and attend
religious gatherings.

New infections climbed 46% in the past week with cases rising fastest in the
Northern Cape and Gauteng, the country’s most-populous province, the National
Department of Health said Wednesday in a statement.

“We have not yet hit the third wave, however, we are at risk and we hence need
to be on heightened vigilance as a country,” it said.



These charts show why the health department is on “high alert”.



South Africa’s test positivity rate rose to 7.45% on Wednesday, according to
health department data. That’s the highest in five days and marks almost a month
since the rate has hovered close to or above the 5% threshold that’s considered
too high, according to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

A sustained increase in the positivity rate could force President Cyril
Ramaphosa to consider reintroducing lockdown measures to curb the spread of the
disease that’ll weigh on the recovery on an economy that contracted the most in
a century in 2020.



While a resurgence of the virus is worrying, a third wave of infections in not
expected to be as severe as the second. That’s because studies in January and
February showed 30% to 40% of South Africa’s population of about 60 million have
already contracted the disease, according to the South African Covid-19
Modelling Consortium, a group linked to the National Institute for Communicable
Diseases.

Research by the Actuarial Society of South Africa suggests the new wave of
infections is likely to be less pronounced than the second wave. However, the
recent arrival of variants of the disease first detected in India and England
could skew estimations.



Still, Covid-19 hospital admissions have yet to show a significant increase and
almost three quarters of the 4,186 patients currently in private or public
facilities are being treated in general wards with the rest in high or
intensive-care units. Eighty-three health-care workers were hospitalised as of
Wednesday.

South Africa has been slower to roll out its vaccination program than many other
African countries and had only inoculated 430,730 health-care workers as of May
12 through a Johnson & Johnson study. A broader distribution of vaccines is
expected to begin this month.

Read more:

 * Covid-19 cases on the rise in SA, not third wave say officials “however we
   are at risk”
 * US consumer inflation rose more than expected in April
 * “Beware of the risk”, says SEC to mutual fund investors with holdings in
   Bitcoin futures

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