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Research (Insikt)


EMPIRE DRAGON ACCELERATES COVERT INFORMATION OPERATIONS, CONVERGES WITH RUSSIAN
NARRATIVES

Posted: 30th August 2023
By: Insikt Group


Insikt Group has identified and analyzed a network named "Empire Dragon," which
is believed to be a coordinated and inauthentic operation likely aligned with
the Chinese government and based in China. This network has been active since
early 2021 and appears to engage in information operations (IOs) aimed at
manipulating global audiences through various languages, topics, and platforms.
Over time, Empire Dragon has evolved its tactics and focus. Initially targeting
Chinese interests such as the "Five Poisons," it shifted its attention to the
United States and its allies after August 2022, particularly in response to
geopolitical events and emerging conspiracy theories.

Timeline of Empire Dragon operations, with an estimated number of posts (Source:
Recorded Future)

Notably, there is a growing convergence between Empire Dragon's narratives and
those propagated by Russian disinformation campaigns. This convergence involves
amplifying narratives originating from the Russian disinformation ecosystem,
indicating a wider shift in the threat landscape for covert information
operations in China. Empire Dragon's use of tactics like employing "useful
idiots," fringe political groups, and account impersonation further reflects
this convergence.

Despite its efforts, Empire Dragon has struggled to generate organic engagement
with its narratives, attributed to factors such as poor content quality,
machine-translated text, and sporadic content amplification. However,
improvements in multilingual large language models and image generation models
are anticipated to enhance the network's ability to overcome these challenges in
the future.

Looking ahead, Insikt Group predicts that Empire Dragon will continue to
capitalize on current events and conspiracy theories, refining its tactics and
procedures in preparation for significant events in 2024, including the
Taiwanese and US presidential elections. The network is likely to attempt to
influence these elections by supporting specific candidates, attacking political
leaders, fostering division among voters, and discrediting critics of the
Chinese government.

Overall, the narrative convergence observed in Empire Dragon's operations
suggests a broader trend of convergence between Chinese and Russian influence
activities, even though their geopolitical objectives differ. Content quality is
likely to be improved with the advent of multilingual large language models
(LLMs) and advanced image-generation models, meaning that we will almost
certainly witness an improvement in Western audiences’ engagement with Chinese
state-aligned IO despite linguistic and cultural barriers.

To read the entire analysis with endnotes, click here to download the report as
a PDF.



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