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 * Home
 * Monetary policy
 * Bank Board decisions

Board decision
7. 11. 2024


TRANSCRIPT OF THE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FROM THE PRESS CONFERENCE

Could you please tell us a little more about the debate on a possible pause in
rate cuts in the coming months? And, as one member of the Bank Board voted for
rate stability today, how deep was the debate about whether to pause the cycle
today? My second question is whether you discussed the possible impacts of the
US election in any way.

We had two alternative scenarios on the Bank Board. One assumed
higher-than-expected inflation persistence, and one member preferred to be very
vigilant and not underestimate the achievements made so far in reducing
inflation. I can’t say how deep the debate was, but we did discuss when and how
to possibly stop the process of cutting rates. That’s also why we put it in the
statement.

As far as the US election is concerned, we debated this, but we can see no
specific impacts yet.

The new forecast is moving in a slightly stagflationary direction, lowering the
outlook for economic growth and implying a further sharper reduction in interest
rates, and at the same time raising the inflation forecast, as you said
yourself. Can you please explain this two-way nature of the forecast? Which of
the two stories is the majority of the Bank Board focusing on – on the risk of
higher-than-targeted inflation as indicated by the forecast, or on the worse
economic growth, which implies a further, sharper decrease in interest rates.

The vast majority of the Bank Board members are now looking at the risk of
elevated inflation in the future. We stated that the process of reducing
inflation was not over. Our policy must remain tight so that inflation declines
to 2% again next year, even though a temporary rise in inflation will occur at
the turn of the year.

How much is the crisis in German industry reflected in the current forecast? The
Czech economy has strong links to it. How do you expect – in connection with the
current developments in Germany – the economic and political situation there to
continue to affect the Czech economy in the future?

What is happening in Germany, and the downturn in industry in Germany, means a
risk of stagnation of the entire Czech economy – not only the automotive
industry. It’s an anti-inflationary risk. We talked about it a lot. So yes, it’s
reflected in our forecast. However, most central bankers are looking more at the
risk of higher inflation than at the risk that we should react to this economic
downturn.

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   framework

RELATED LINKS

 * How does the Bank Board make decisions
 * Voting of the Bank Board (xlsx, 159 kB)

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