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U.S. DAIRY PRODUCTION IS UP, MILK DEMAND STRUGGLINGU.S. DAIRY PRODUCTION IS UP,
MILK DEMAND STRUGGLING

“Milk producers are responding to low prices and higher production and the
market will have to adjust to what they are doing,” says an AgriLife Extension
economist. Learn more, plus the latest crop and weather report.

Adam Russell

July 14, 2023

10 Min Read
Summertime treats like ice cream typically provide a price bump for dairy
producers, but prices continue to stay relatively low.Michael Miller


Summer demand for ice cream and other dairy-based cold treats has historically
contributed to higher milk prices for producers, but that has not been the case
so far in 2023, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

Rising temperatures typically deliver the one-two price punch of higher demand
and reduced production going into the dog days of summer, but dairies are
currently producing a glut of milk. As a result, retail prices for an array of
dairy-based products, including cheese and ice cream, remain high while
producers are seeing low prices for raw milk.



Jennifer Spencer, AgriLife Extension dairy specialist, Stephenville, said milk
prices were historically high for producers in 2022. Prices per hundredweight
ranged between $23-$25 for most of the year and peaked at $25.87 in June and
July last year.

However, prices per hundredweight have steadily declined this year and were
$17.32 per hundredweight in the most recent U.S. Department of
Agriculture report, she said. Hundredweight prices for producers were around $15
in 2020 and $17 by June 2021 as the pandemic interrupted typical demand,
including cheese and butter for restaurants and carton milk for schools. They
were around $19 per hundredweight before the pandemic.



Related:Wheat Scoops: Record world wheat production and prices

Spencer said lower milk prices put pressure on a dairy operation’s ability to
turn profits as other production costs, such as feed, fuel and labor continue to
rise.

“Breakeven is different for every operation, but these prices may not be good
for some producers,” she said. “They may have been optimistic in 2022 and
expanded, but when prices drop $5-$6 per hundredweight, it makes it hard.”



Texas continues to add milk cows and production capacity as the number of dairy
operations decline, Spencer said. There were 325 dairies in operation during
2021 and 319 dairies in 2022, while those operations added 20,000 cows to the
statewide dairy herd.


ICE CREAM DEMAND DECLINING, PRODUCTION RISING

David Anderson, AgriLife Extension economist, Bryan-College Station, said the
lack of a summer price bump could be attributed to a few factors. U.S. dairy
production is up, but it appears that overall milk demand is struggling a bit. 

“The milk market is complex, and that makes it interesting,” he said. “There is
a seasonality to the supply side and the demand side that keeps the market
constantly moving.”

Spring conditions typically provide a flush of new grass and hay, silage and
other forages, and ideal weather that pushes milk output by cows higher. Milk
output slows as temperatures rise in the summer, while demand for ice cream
increases.

Related:COTTON SPIN: Emerging uncertainty

In August, the built-in demand for carton milk at schools across the country
pushes demand during the heat of summer. The holiday season delivers another
level of demand as consumers increase their use of cheese, milk and other dairy
products for baking.

In May, creameries produced 2.6% more hard ice cream than at that time last
year. Retail prices for ice cream remained relatively high despite the low milk
prices, he said. The Consumer Price Index showed May ice cream prices were $5.80
per half-gallon versus $5.35 per half-gallon at the same time last year.

Retail prices were showing signs of trending downward, he said. Cheddar cheese
was $5.84 per pound, it’s lowest price since this time last year when a pound of
cheese was $5.65.

Demand for the range of dairy-based products from protein powder, cheese and ice
cream continues to push overall milk demand upward despite falling demand for
specific products like liquid milk. It takes roughly 10 pounds of milk to make 1
pound of cheese. The cheese-making process produces whey, which is used in
protein products.



Surprisingly, Anderson said ice cream consumption has steadily dipped over the
last few decades. The U.S. consumed 18.2 pounds, a little over 4 gallons, of ice
cream per capita in 1975 compared to 16.2 pounds in 2002, 13.2 pounds in 2012
and 12 pounds in 2021.

Related:Rest and test: Key to peanut winner’s yields

Cheese continues to show consistent demand growth, and processing plants to
produce a range of hard and soft cheese products continue to expand to keep
pace. Two new cheese-making facilities in Abilene and Lubbock are expected to be
online this fall and in 2024, respectively.

Spencer said that processing capacity will help producers in the Panhandle, the
region where 80% of the state’s dairy production is located. Some dairies in the
No. 2 milk-producing state – Wisconsin – were dumping milk because of low prices
and processing capacity, Anderson said.

Dairy producers are thinning their milk herds in response to low prices and
market factors to reduce costs and output, he said.

“Milk producers are responding to low prices and higher production and the
market will have to adjust to what they are doing,” he said. “It’s summertime
and I like ice cream, so I’m doing my part.”


AGRILIFE EXTENSION DISTRICT REPORTERS COMPILED THE FOLLOWING SUMMARIES:








CENTRAL

Temperatures were hot, but milder than the previous week. Soil moisture levels
were very short to short. Little to no rain was causing pastures to brown. Pecan
producers received some rainfall to help irrigation in orchards, but all
agricultural commodities needed moisture to withstand the high heat and drought
conditions. Dry conditions were favorable for harvesting corn and hay. Sorghum
harvest should begin in the coming weeks. Fly, mosquito and tick numbers
continued to increase on livestock. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor
to good, and livestock conditions were fair to good.


ROLLING PLAINS

Sporadic rain delivered showers to most areas. Some areas received enough rain
to note improvements to livestock drinking tanks, improved hay conditions and
the early cotton outlook. Other areas missed out on moisture and reported
rapidly deteriorating conditions in pastures and hayfields. Insect pressure was
also starting to be of concern. Sustained hot and dry conditions in the forecast
were expected to test crops and livestock in the coming weeks.




COASTAL BEND

Some areas received rain that slowed harvest activity for a few days. Rain
accumulations were minimal. Sorghum harvest was approximately 75% complete with
about 5% of the acreage appearing to be a complete failure. Yields for sorghum
were less than anticipated, however, yields in a few locations were average or
above average. Corn harvest was underway in a few areas, many with
better-than-average yields ranging from mid-80 to 140 bushels per acre. The
weather was mostly favorable for harvest, but cloudy conditions and high
humidity were also impacting corn drying times. Most fields continued to dry
down. Grain moisture levels were between 14%-20% in fields that were harvested.
Recent rain should help cotton and soybeans, but the heat was stressful for
cotton and soybeans in the reproductive stages. Dry conditions this past month
slowed down cotton growth. Cotton was shedding fruit, and yield losses were a
concern. Later-planted cotton will be a failure in most cases and even some
early cotton was expected to fail. Sunflowers appeared to be nearing harvest,
and yield potential looked to be near or above average. Most rice has headed.
Pasture conditions deteriorated drastically and continued to decline with hot
dry weather. Livestock were doing well, and prices were holding strong.
Livestock remained in good condition, and calves were still growing. Hay baling
slowed due to dry weather. 


SOUTH PLAINS

The district received 0.72 to a little over 1 inch of rainfall. Cotton progress
varied throughout the area from just emerging to matchhead square stage. Cotton
producers were scouting for flea hoppers and lygus and noting subsequent square
drops. In corn and sorghum, a few mites were picked up but nothing at or above
threshold. Pastures continued to improve. Cattle were grazing and were in good
condition with minimal supplemental feeding. Rains reduced irrigation
requirements in crops.




PANHANDLE

Most of the district received some rain with reports of 0.5-2.5 inches. Most
counties reported adequate subsoil moisture, with some reporting adequate to
surplus topsoil moisture. Wheat harvest was closer to completion with yields
close to or below average. Corn looked great and was growing well due to recent
rainfall. Cotton was lost to heavy rains in some areas, leading some producers
to plant back with sorghum. Rangelands continued to improve, and some
late-season grazing was expected. Crop, pasture and rangeland conditions were
fair to excellent.


NORTH

Pastures and rangeland conditions were fair to good, while soil moisture ranged
from short to adequate. Most counties received 2-6 inches of rainfall. The
summer pasture growth was coming on strong. Ponds were in good shape from the
rain, and vegetable gardens were producing well. Many corn and soybean producers
were saying the rain should improve growing conditions. Livestock were in good
shape. Webworms were showing up in the pecans.


FAR WEST

Daytime temperatures were in the 100s with overnight lows in the 70s. Isolated
rain in trace amounts was reported in the low-lying areas, and widespread
rainfall and cooler conditions were prevalent across much of the Davis Mountain
area. Some areas received up to 2 inches of rainfall. This change in weather
provided much-needed relief from the intense heat. Pasture conditions were
spotty, but producers were hopeful recent rains marked the beginning of the
summer monsoon season. Cotton began growing after relief from the heat stress.
The earliest planted acres were holding on to some larger squares and will be
blooming in the next week to 10 days. The latest planted cotton finally started
squaring. Insect activity was non-existent. Corn was maturing very quickly due
to hot dry winds, and most fields were entering dent stage already. Irrigated
sorghum made decent progress. Melon harvest was picking up, but the first
picking continued to be light. Subsoil and topsoil moisture conditions remained
mostly short and some adequate. Rangeland conditions were steady, but more rain
will be needed to improve conditions. Some pastures were completely bare. Brush
remained a problem for ranchers. Livestock were in fair condition, but water and
grazing were in short supply for many areas.


SOUTHEAST

Spotty rain was reported in a few areas, and temperatures dipped slightly. More
rice was starting to head out. Most pastures were dry. Rangeland and pasture
conditions ranged from very poor to excellent. The cattle market was holding
steady with a slight dip for lower calf weights. Conditions were very dry with
Increased fire concerns. Grasshopper numbers increased. Forages were not
recovering well after cutting and/or grazing due to lack of moisture and
excessive heat. Some crops were slowing down and showing heat stress.


SOUTHWEST

Scattered rainfall delivered spotty moisture with totals ranging from trace
amounts to 6.5 inches, with some runoff reported. Lack of rain and high
temperatures caused further deterioration of rangeland and pasture conditions,
even though temperatures had cooled some. Forage was scarce, and hay cutting was
greatly reduced to non-existent. Producers continued to sell stock due to
drought. Livestock and wildlife were in fair to good condition. Supplemental
feeding for cattle was necessary in drier areas. A return to higher temperatures
was in the forecast. Gardens were performing well. Sorghum harvest was underway.


SOUTH

Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels improved in areas that received recent
rainfall. Grain sorghum and corn continued to mature, and harvesting was
underway in some areas. Cotton was setting bolls, but plants were struggling in
the heat. Vegetable crops were starting to slow down. Strawberry harvest
ended. Dryland cotton was flowering. Hay grazer fields that were not cut were
burning up. Pivot irrigation was being utilized daily on crops. The peanut crop
was in the pegging stage. Sesame crops were progressing well. Sunflower harvest
was nearing completion. Citrus and sugarcane were receiving irrigation. Pasture
and rangeland conditions improved in some areas but were generally poor due to
lack of rain. Supplemental feeding continued but decreased overall. Ranchers
were decreasing stocking rates. Fire concerns were growing in some areas. Cattle
prices were steady.

Source: Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, AgriLife Today

Read more about:

Milk



ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Adam Russell

AgriLife media, Texas AgriLife


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