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THE US WILL BECOME ‘MINORITY WHITE’ IN 2045, CENSUS PROJECTS

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The Avenue


THE US WILL BECOME ‘MINORITY WHITE’ IN 2045, CENSUS PROJECTS


YOUTHFUL MINORITIES ARE THE ENGINE OF FUTURE GROWTH

William H. Frey Wednesday, March 14, 2018


The Avenue
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Editor's Note:

William H. Frey’s latest book, "Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics
are Remaking America," was released earlier this year.

This post was updated on September 10, 2018 with Census Bureau revisions as of
September 6, 2018.

New census population projections confirm the importance of racial minorities as
the primary demographic engine of the nation’s future growth, countering an
aging, slow-growing and soon to be declining white population. The new
statistics project that the nation will become “minority white” in 2045. During
that year, whites will comprise 49.7 percent of the population in contrast to
24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and
3.8 percent for multiracial populations (see Figure 1).


WILLIAM H. FREY


SENIOR FELLOW - BROOKINGS METRO

The shift is the result of two trends. First, between 2018 and 2060, gains will
continue in the combined racial minority populations, growing by 74 percent.
Second, during this time frame, the aging white population will see a modest
immediate gain through 2024, and then experience a long-term decline through
2060, a consequence of more deaths than births (see Figure 2).





Among the minority populations, the greatest growth is projected for multiracial
populations, Asians and Hispanics with 2018–2060 growth rates of 176, 93, and 86
percent, respectively. The projected growth rate for blacks is 34 percent.* The
demographic source of growth varies across groups. For example, immigration
contributes to one-third of Hispanic growth over this time span, with the rest
attributable to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). Among
Asians, immigration contributes to three quarters of the projected growth.

These new projections differ from those that the census previously released in
2014. Those projected a minority white tipping point in the year 2044 due to
larger projected immigration and somewhat greater growth for several minority
groups. The national growth was also somewhat larger in the 2014 projections.
The U.S. was predicted to reach a population of 400 million in the year 2051
compared with 2058 in the new projections.


 “MINORITY WHITE” TIPPING POINTS DIFFER BY AGE

Because minorities as a group are younger than whites, the minority white
tipping point comes earlier for younger age groups. As shown in Figure 3, the
new census projections indicate that, for youth under 18–the post-millennial
population–minorities will outnumber whites in 2020. For those age 18-29–members
of the younger labor force and voting age populations–the tipping point will
occur in 2027.



> The new census projections indicate that, for youth under 18–the
> post-millennial population–minorities will outnumber whites in 2020

These tipping point years occur later for older age groups, meaning that
seniors, age 60 and above, will continue to be majority white after the year
2060. The latter can be attributable in the near term to the staying power of
the largely white baby boom. In fact, over the 2018–2060 time span, the only
white age group that does not lose population is the 65 and older age group, an
age group that, overall, grows far more rapidly than any other.


YOUTHFUL DIVERSITY AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO AGING WHITES

Clearly it is the growth of the nation’s youthful minority
population–attributable to a combination of past and present immigration and
births among younger minority groups–that is keeping the nation from aging even
faster than would otherwise be the case.

Figure 4 makes clear how important minority populations will become for the
nation’s youth even through 2060. At that point in time, the census projects
whites will comprise only 36 percent of the under age 18 population, with
Hispanics accounting for 32 percent. This contrasts sharply with the minority
contribution to the nation’s seniors, which will still be over half white.



Because racial minorities are projected to account for all of the nation’s
youthful population growth over the next 42 years, they will sharply decelerate
national aging. Already in 2018, there will be more white seniors than children
and more white deaths than births according to census projections. Yet, neither
will be the case for the combined minority population for the projected
2018–2060 time frame.

Minorities will be the source of all of the growth in the nation’s youth and
working age population, most of the growth in its voters, and much of the growth
in its consumers and tax base as far into the future as we can see. Hence, the
more rapidly growing, largely white senior population will be increasingly
dependent on their contributions to the economy and to government programs such
as Medicare and Social Security. This suggests the necessity for continued
investments in the nation’s diverse youth and young adults as the population
continues to age.

> (In 2060) the census projects whites will comprise only 36 percent of the
> under age 18 population, with Hispanics accounting for 32 percent

* Growth rates for multiracials, Asians and blacks pertain to non-Hispanic
members of those groups.


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