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S&P 500 Bond

511.3

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12,385.73

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S&P Europe 350

2,089.01

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S&P 500

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DJIA

43,449.9

-0.61%

S&P/TSX 60

1,508.59

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S&P/TOPIX 150

2,400.66

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S&P/ASX 200

8,305

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S&P Global BMI

415.77

0.01%

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50,421.61

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2,280.58

0.16%

S&P Asia 50

5,473.19

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S&P China 500

2,546.6

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S&P 500 Bond

511.3

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S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures

12,385.73

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Volume 8 – 4 December 2024


LOOK FORWARD: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In today’s rapidly evolving landscape, AI is a transformative force
revolutionizing business, the economy and society. In the eighth edition of Look
Forward, S&P Global offers a balanced look at AI complexity by highlighting the
opportunities and risks in three parts: AI and labor, AI and energy, and AI and
society.

Read the Full Journal
Read the Full Journal
Look Forward: Artificial Intelligence
4 Dec 2024

AI AND LABOR: CHANGE IS INEVITABLE, BUT HUMAN CAPABILITIES REMAIN ESSENTIAL



While AI will transform labor markets through enhanced productivity and
efficiency, human capabilities will remain indispensable for tasks requiring
emotional intelligence, creativity and complex decision-making.




Look Forward: Artificial Intelligence
4 Dec 2024

AI AND SOCIETY: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL EQUALITY AND QUALITY OF LIFE



AI has profound implications for society, with potential to alter industries
from healthcare to education to agriculture — but the quality of its influence
depends on key institutions steering AI toward responsible, secure and equitable
implementations.




Look Forward: Artificial Intelligence
4 Dec 2024

AI AND ENERGY: THE BIG PICTURE



Growth in AI and cloud services is driving up US electricity demand, outpacing
power infrastructure and creating a supply-demand imbalance that could increase
fossil fuel reliance. Addressing this will require grid technology innovations,
a balance between datacenter expansion and power infrastructure, and a
coordinated effort among utilities, government and tech companies to mitigate
environmental impacts.




GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS INTERCONNECTED.
YOUR INTELLIGENCE SHOULD BE TOO.

Explore Risks and Impacts


S&P GLOBAL DAILY UPDATE

Subscribe


CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DATACENTERS

17 December 2024



CHINA’S EV EXPANSION ACCELERATES GLOBAL AUTO MARKET GROWTH

16 December 2024



TRADE UNCERTAINTY COMPLICATES THE OUTLOOK FOR EMERGING MARKETS

13 December 2024



EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND CREDIT OUTLOOK APPEARS MOSTLY STABLE

11 December 2024


S&P Global Ratings


GLOBAL CREDIT OUTLOOK 2025: PROMISE AND PERIL

Global credit conditions are likely to remain supportive in 2025—against a
backdrop of region- and country-specific divergence and geopolitical uncertainty
that threatens to reignite risk-aversion among investors and affect capital
flows.
Read the Research


SPECIAL REPORTS

Read All Special Reports
Economy
12 Dec 2024

2025 OUTLOOKS



From artificial intelligence capabilities, global credit conditions and energy
transition to corporate debt issuance, supply-demand dynamics, geopolitics and
policy shifts, stay up to date on the latest 2025 outlooks from S&P Global.




Artificial Intelligence
12 Dec 2024

AI'S SHIFT FROM PROMISE TO PRACTICE



AI's development remains nascent, as does its meaningful application at most
entities and in most people's lives, but adoption is very much underway, and
progress on new technologies, including multimodal AI, edge AI, causal AI, and
agentic AI, promises to deepen AI's impact in unprecedented ways.




Energy Transition
27 Nov 2024

IS EUROPE READY FOR A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE?



Any nuclear new build will take years to become operational and connect to the
grid, creating ongoing tensions on projected economics and future power market
dynamics. Managing these will be key to attract investors while protecting
consumers.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MARKET INSIGHTS


SUSTAINABILITY




ECONOMY




CAPITAL MARKETS




GLOBAL TRADE




ENERGY & COMMODITIES




TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION




GEOPOLITICAL RISK




ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INSIGHTS

The artificial intelligence landscape is ever-changing. These technological
advancements are equally important to economic development as other major trends
like globalization, social inclusion, and climate and energy transition. S&P
Global aims to provide this information in three parts: AI Fundamentals, AI
Applications, and AI Governance and Regulation. 

Explore more Artifical Intelligence Insights

Special Reports

Dec 12, 2024


AI'S SHIFT FROM PROMISE TO PRACTICE

12 December 2024 AI's shift from promise to practice By Miriam Fernández, CFA,
Sudeep Kesh, and Paul Whitfield This is a thought leadership report issued by
S&P Global. This report does not constitute a rating action, neither was it
discussed by a rating committee. Highlights AI's development remains nascent, as
does its meaningful application at most entities and in most people's lives, but
adoption is very much underway, and progress on new technologies, including
multimodal AI, edge AI, causal AI, and agentic AI, promises to deepen AI's
impact in unprecedented ways. Investment trends and human talent will be central
to the course of that development, to increased applications of new
technologies, and to the management of existing, potential, and
yet-to-be-recognized risks and opportunities. Our library of research and
podcasts offers extensive analysis by AI and industry experts and will continue
to build over 2025 with early identification and assessment of important trends
and forward-looking analysis of events as they unfold. History may yet record
2024 as the year that AI began to make the shift from promising technology to
ubiquitous tool. In the public sphere, large language models (LLMs) and, more
broadly, generative AI increasingly transitioned from curiosity to a functional
aid (at least for a significant minority of the developed world), taking a role
in everything from mundane report writing to the creation of personalized
bedtime stories for kids. Across many sectors, previously speculative investment
in the technology increasingly offered regular and tangible benefits as
organizations deployed AI-powered initiatives (see AI In Pharmaceuticals
Promises Innovation, Speed, And Savings, Oct. 1, 2024, and AI In Real Estate:
What To Watch As Adoption Accelerates, May 28, 2024). There is no doubt that AI
still has a long and uncertain road ahead. Yet we share a conviction with many
other market participants that increased application and the increasing
capabilities of AI will have profound, and accelerating, effects across all
sectors of the economy, all organizations (both directly and often indirectly),
on labor markets, on energy usage, and in society--for good and bad (see The
Rise of AI-Powered Smart Cities, May 18, 2024; and Look Forward Journal
Artificial Intelligence, Dec. 4, 2024). That conviction demands our ongoing
attention. Over the past year, we have explored and regularly published analysis
on the fundamentals of AI technology and its development (see Language Modeling:
The Fundamentals, Jan. 23, 2024). And we have looked at its deployment, its
impact, and its potential--including due to the paradigm shift in computational
power that will arrive when AI is combined with quantum computing (see
Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing: The Fundamentals, Sept. 10,
2024). Such analysis is necessarily a complex task. Partly, that is because the
application of AI and the discovery of its boundaries remain uncertain,
evolving, and will be dictated by investment trends and the development of human
talent (see Investment And Talent Are The Keys To Unlocking AI's Potential, July
9, 2024). But it also reflects the reality that AI is not a single, monolithic
technology, but myriad different processes, developments, and projects. Each of
those has a combination of strengths and limitations that dictate their
potential and are, in turn, dictated by the particularities of their underlying
technologies, applications, the environments in which they operate, and their
governance requirements (see Podcast: Artificial Intelligence Insights, Episode
2: Governance Considerations for AI, June 13, 2024). Furthermore, developments
in AI are often non-linear, meaning that they often don't simply extend the uses
of existing technologies. Rather, developments can lead to sudden breakthroughs
and inspire the development of new technologies and applications targeting
entirely new problems and multidisciplinary fields, such as synthetic biology
(see Artificial Intelligence Powering Synthetic Biology: The Fundamentals, June
25, 2024). Furthermore, a combination of breakthroughs can lead to non-linear
outcomes that could deliver exponential advancement in AI's capabilities. The
indirect effects of AI Our coverage of AI necessarily extends beyond the direct
application of the technology to encompass the wider impact of its adoption.
Indirect effects of the growth in AI are already being felt across a host of
sectors--notably those with exposure to the surge in demand for data center
capacity, including real estate companies, the power and utilities sector, and
midstream gas suppliers (see Data Centers: Rapid Growth Creates Opportunities
And Issues, Oct. 30, 2024). AI's increasing applications will also entangle the
systems in which it operates, with the potential for effects to reach far beyond
the immediate users. That possibility is perhaps most evident in the financial
sector, where the adoption of AI exacerbates the risk of operational disruption
leading to systemic instability that could have wide-ranging implications (see
Your Three Minutes In AI: Financial Systems Will Face New Systemic Risks, Oct.
4, 2024). Those risks could be mitigated through effective governance,
regulation, and decentralization (see section on "edge AI," below). Yet the pace
of development in AI and its expanding use exposes such efforts to the
challenges of containing not only existing and potential risks but also to
uncovering unrecognized risks (a variation on the "Rumsfeld matrix" of known
knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns). Predicting risk is core to our
efforts to understand the evolution of AI's effects on organizational credit
quality and will continue to drive our research (see Crypto and AI: Shaping The
Future Of The Internet, Oct. 1, 2024). What we will be watching in 2025 Over 80%
of organizations forecast their AI workflows will increase in the next two
years, while about two-thirds expect pressure to upgrade IT infrastructure (see
Generative AI: From Hype To Value, Nov. 25, 2024). The breadth and nuance of
AI's development, its effects (and potential), are evident in the slate of
subjects that we have tasked ourselves to explore over 2025. They include:
Multimodal AI, which facilitates more human-like applications of generative AI
models by enabling the integration and processing of diverse inputs such as
images, audio, text, and video. The technology has gained traction in 2024 after
OpenAI included the functionality in its models, Meta released a multimodal
version of its LLaMA model, and NVIDIA launched an open-source multimodal
foundation model (NVLM 1.0). We expect this technology will gradually gain
relevance in industrial applications, particularly for companies that are
already integrating language models into their businesses. Multimodal AI is
notably being developed or is already in use in sectors including: Healthcare:
where medical imaging can be combined with patient history and lab results to
improve diagnosis and treatment, for example, by systems developed by Merative
(formerly part of IBM Watson Health) and Bayer (see AI In Healthcare: A Path To
Long-Term Immunity? June 25, 2024) Automotive: where inputs, including from
cameras, GPS, and LiDAR, are being combined to improve autonomous driving,
emergency response, and navigation systems at companies including Waymo and Li
Auto. Finance: where multimodal AI is being applied to analyze customers' phone
queries to support contact center employees' response and resolution activities.
Retailing: where the combination of visual images, product reviews, product
information, customer interaction data, and warehouse data is used to optimize
marketing campaigns, inventory management, and minimize packaging and shipping
costs. Amazon, for example, uses its "Just Walk Out" multimodal AI to enable
checkout-less shopping at its physical stores. Edge AI, which moves AI
computation to end users' machines. Though not a new concept, we expect that the
increasing use of small language models (SLMs) by companies will support the
scalability of edge AI. That shift offers numerous advantages, including,
notably, a reduced risk of mass outages associated with failures at major
infrastructure or technology providers--known as centralization risk. The
combination of SLMs with crypto technologies should further mitigate
centralization risk, paving the way for more secure and decentralized computing
and data storage (see AI & DeFi: Can Crypto Innovations Offset Artificial
Intelligence Concentration Risks, Dec. 4, 2025). And because SLMs at the edge
require less computational power, they will also offer energy efficiency
advantages compared to data and resource-hungry LLMs (see Can AI become net
positive for net-zero? Nov. 14, 2024). However, meaningful application of
scalable edge AI will have to overcome the sizable challenge of ensuring that
nascent technologies make their way from the lab to the field and are deployed
in sufficient numbers to be impactful. Causal AI, which can reason and make
choices like humans do, uses causal inference to fundamentally understand why
processes and decisions are made. This goes beyond the pattern recognition and
correlation that underpins much of the current ability of AI (particularly
discriminative AI and generative AI). We expect that capability will become
increasingly important with increased AI adoption and the corresponding demand
for data (both real and synthetic), as a means to identify true causality from
spurious correlations. It should also enable AI models to deliver more reliable
query responses, make more informed decisions, and potentially aid in the
discovery of underlying causes--which could prove a powerful tool across sectors
including healthcare and finance. Causal AI is generally regarded as one of the
missing links to create artificial general intelligence (which matches or
outperforms human cognitive abilities across any task). By nature, casual
inferencing reduces complexity in decision-making, meaning it requires less data
and power to deliver typically better performance. Active use cases are still
relatively limited and tend to center on manufacturing, life sciences, decision
sciences, and the study of human cognition and behavior. Agentic AI, which
describes the development of increasingly autonomous "AI agents" that make
decisions and execute tasks based on a set of provided instructions (see
Podcast: Artificial Intelligence Insights, Episode 4: Agentic AI, Oct. 30,
2024). This advancement opens the door for AI to shift from meeting a problem by
providing relevant data to formulating and enacting solutions. As Microsoft put
it, when it launched its generalist agentic system Magentic-One: the difference
is "between generative AI recommending dinner options… (and an) agentic
assistant that can autonomously place your order and arrange delivery." Agentic
AI promises to reduce the complexity inherent in many systems, enabling better
human decision-making and a focus on higher-value activities like creativity,
leadership, and communication and clarification of decisions. Cognitive AI,
which refers to AI being able to mimic human cognitive functions such as
reasoning, learning, and problem-solving--including by using cognitive computing
structures known as neuro-symbolic architecture that simulate human patterns of
learning, reasoning, and understanding. We expect cognitive AI will follow the
widespread adoption of agentic AI to become the next step in the technology's
evolution. Recent multimodal virtual chatbots, such as ChatGPT-4o and its latest
model o1 (designed to think more deeply before responding), have some features
that qualify as cognitive AI (i.e., the use of multimodal AI to provide reasoned
responses and understand complex queries, and showcasing of adaptive learning in
human interactions). Yet the models are not fully autonomous, meaning they
require human inputs to achieve goals (unlike agentic AI), and do not yet
integrate sensory information (from Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices, for
example), telematics, or other sources of augmented real-time data needed for
decision-making. Stepping into the unknown It is inevitable that other subjects
will demand analysis over the course of 2025, not least because 12 months is a
long time in AI. Our intention is to remain both proactive, through early
identification and analysis of important (and high-potential) new trends and
technological developments, and reactive, with forward-looking analysis of
events as they unfold. As always, that analysis, including insights from our AI
and sector specialists, will be available across S&P Global's platforms and
collated at our dedicated site: Artificial Intelligence Insights. Contributors
Editorial, Design & Publishing Cat VanVliet Associate Director, Data
Visualization


Special Reports

Dec 04, 2024


AI AND LABOR: CHANGE IS INEVITABLE, BUT HUMAN CAPABILITIES REMAIN ESSENTIAL

Look Forward — 4 December 2024 AI and labor: Change is inevitable, but human
capabilities remain essential While AI will transform labor markets through
enhanced productivity and efficiency, human capabilities will remain
indispensable for tasks requiring emotional intelligence, creativity and complex
decision-making. By Sudeep Kesh, Nathan Hunt, and Xu Han This article is
intended to promote discourse regarding the interplay between AI and labor
markets. The time frames referenced are meant to provide an illustrative
scaffold, and certain concepts, including issues of distribution and governance,
and nuances between capital, material, labor and total factor productivity,
remain unaddressed here to maximize the reach of this discourse. Those further
issues will be the subject of robust economic and policy analysis in additional
S&P Global research. Highlights Over time, AI’s impact on labor will become
increasingly evident across key areas such as efficiency and productivity,
creation of new roles, transformative human-AI collaboration, autonomous
systems, and labor redistribution and reskilling. Across short-term (one to two
years), medium-term (four to six years) and long-term (seven to 10 years) time
frames, we expect AI’s integration with labor to progress through distinct
phases, each with unique challenges, ethical considerations and risks to balance
against the technology’s benefits. Our research suggests that AI’s effects will
be uneven across the employment landscape. Roles most likely to be affected will
be those focused on information collection and processing, data analysis, and
machine or process management. Look Forward Artificial Intelligence Explore More
American folk hero John Henry is said to have been “a steel-driving man," a
reference to his job hammering a steel bit into rock to make holes for
explosives to excavate railway tunnels. A song memorializing John Henry tells of
his race against a steam-powered drill, an avatar of the industrial age, which
he beats, but at the cost of his life. The tale is one of determination and
fortitude, but it is also a warning about the futility of resisting
technological advancement. As generative AI expands, it may be tempting to view
John Henry's tale as a parable for the future of labor, but this would be a
mistake for two major reasons. First, our analysis shows that while large
language models will prove effective at many tasks, they will likely have little
effect on the market for manual labor. In this sense, the next John Henry is
more likely to be a paralegal or a computer systems engineer than a construction
worker. Second, industrial-age technological disruptions fall short of the
upheaval that generative AI is likely to bring about. Industrial machines
replaced workers’ roles within a defined task (like steel driving) but left the
process intact. We expect that within seven to 10 years, the use of generative
AI will upend and redefine many labor processes themselves. A structured
analysis of AI's effects on labor Since the public launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in
November 2022, conversations about AI and the future of work have polarized,
with fear and exuberance in similar proportions. Both extremes reflect emotional
responses rather than a practical understanding of how AI will transform the
labor landscape. The reality is sure to be more nuanced. To frame our analysis
of AI's effects on labor, we use three periods: the short term (one to three
years), the medium term (four to six years) and the long term (seven to 10
years). Each phase will present challenges, ethical considerations and risks
that must be balanced against the technology’s potential benefits. As we
progress along this timeline, the effects of AI on labor and labor markets will
become increasingly evident across a range of key elements. Efficiency and
productivity Automation of repetitive tasks and improved decision-making across
many areas should result in significant gains in labor productivity and
efficiency, and in processes as labor is augmented or replaced by AI. Emerging
roles New job categories such as AI trainers, explainability experts and AI
ethicists will emerge, notably in quality and governance functions, and will
themselves be augmented by AI. These roles' defining characteristic will be to
do what AI cannot: AI excels at finding answers, while humans excel at asking
questions. People who prove talented at asking the right types of questions —
open-ended, probing and insightful — will be in high demand. Transformative
collaboration Collaborative intelligence, a paradigm in which humans and AI work
seamlessly together, will become increasingly mainstream, likely through the
maturation of agent-based models (ABMs), which simulate the actions and
interactions of autonomous agents. The impact of autonomous systems Improved
ABMs will also facilitate increased use of autonomous systems, such as
self-driving vehicles and AI-powered agricultural robots. The result should be a
marked enhancement of some sectors’ efficiency and sustainability, notably
through the synthesis of analytics and fieldwork. Labor redistribution and
reskilling The redistribution of labor markets away from roles that are easily
replicated by AI will require reskilling and upskilling, with a focus on
developing emotional intelligence, critical thinking and interpersonal skills.
AI integration will necessitate greater humanity in the workplace. Short term:
Picking the low-hanging fruit In the next few years, AI applications will likely
focus on enhancing labor efficiency and productivity in existing workflows. This
focus will be dictated by employers’ initial limited understanding of AI's
potential in the context of current processes and will reflect experimentation
as enterprise decision-makers learn about AI’s core competencies, develop
integration approaches and refine their strategies. Companies will likely begin
leveraging AI to streamline operations, reduce costs and improve
decision-making. Stakeholders will need to determine adequate levels of prudence
in adoption, change-management and governance. Adoption without sufficient
checks could lead to negative consequences, such as job displacement and privacy
concerns, and even where care is taken, the ride is likely to be bumpy and
include some retrenchment. Adoption and implementation of AI in various job
families may add complexity to work, posing both opportunities and risks. A key
challenge will be to balance the allocation of work between human strengths and
AI capabilities in a way that enables the opportunities and abates the risks.
Recent data suggests there is reason for optimism. S&P Global Market
Intelligence 451 Research surveyed about 5,000 respondents regarding the impact
of AI on jobs and on society at large. Between two waves of the survey in 2022
and 2024, respondent expectations regarding AI's impact on society notably
shifted, with a significant increase in the expected degree of impact and a
modest bias toward positive expectations. In that period, sentiment regarding
AI’s impact on jobs remained stable. Notably, among those who expect AI to
significantly impact their career, more than twice as many expect a positive
impact on work versus a negative impact. Enhanced automation and productivity
AI-driven automation will increase across capacities including manufacturing,
logistics, customer service and data management. By combining information,
systems and robotics to handle repetitive tasks, these developments should allow
human workers to focus on more complex and creative activities or those with
social aspects, such as management, coaching and inspiration. Application is
likely to involve assessing the division of labor between tasks that require or
benefit from human performance and those that are “machine ready.” For instance,
AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants will continue to evolve, in some
cases providing more sophisticated support to human customer service agents, and
in other cases providing direct customer support without human intervention.
Meanwhile, optimization agents will assess operations to reduce human input and
maximize AI's potential for productivity gains. While this concept may evoke
sci-fi tropes that fuel fears of AI, this assessment is a crucial step to
maximizing the effectiveness of a mutualism between AI and humans: parsing the
tasks that humans are especially good at versus those at which AI excels and
facilitating interoperability between the two. Diving deeper, we see that
concerns about AI’s impact on jobs vary across industries, with some showing
major concerns while others appear more optimistic. Measures that allay these
concerns by abating negative impacts and supporting positive ones may present
new opportunities in the work mix for existing positions and may even create new
positions to help evolve the workforce toward a future that includes AI. AI
capabilities can improve workforce tooling, especially in minimizing
administrative burden, reducing overhead and providing objective performance
feedback. In another survey, S&P Global Market Intelligence 451 Research asked
approximately 450 respondents about their preferences for workforce tooling
innovations. The overwhelming majority focused on efficiency gains and reducing
administrative overhead, presumably to allow better focus on "value-add" tasks.
Other tools, such as digital twins of physical objects and processes, received
less priority among respondents, but these innovations are crucial for providing
the digital infrastructure whereby AI can operate. Improved decision-making and
knowledge Discriminative AI systems, which excel at classification, have proven
adept at complex data analysis and assisting decision-making across industries
such as automotive, manufacturing and logistics. We expect that the combination
of discriminative AI and generative AI will also improve service economy
activities by drawing on troves of service-oriented data collected over the past
two decades. Financial institutions, for example, could use AI algorithms to
expedite portfolio managers’ analysis of market trends, risks, correlation and
other factors. In healthcare, AI could help diagnose diseases and recommend
treatment plans based on vast amounts of medical data, potentially enhancing
patient outcomes and reducing diagnostic errors. Medium term: Significant
advancements Over the next three to five years, AI will significantly reshape
labor markets, driven by increased investment in and knowledge of AI systems,
and by competitive dynamics that should reduce AI's implementation costs. We
expect significant advancements in machine learning, natural language processing
and robotics, particularly due to improvements in agent-based systems (in which
AI systems make decisions and take actions), inference (applying learning from
patterns in data) and orchestration (connecting processes and systems). During
this period, it will be crucial to address AI's ethical considerations and
privacy concerns as regulatory scrutiny will also increase. Wider deployment of
AI will also raise the risk of automating deficiencies, including bias, in
downstream processes. Expansion of AI-augmented roles As AI technologies mature,
the scope of roles augmented by AI will expand, especially in fields such as
marketing and customer analytics. For example, improvements in AI's ability to
meaningfully analyze vast amounts of data on consumer behavior and preferences
will facilitate highly personalized marketing campaigns (akin to personalized
treatment plans in healthcare). In education, AI-driven platforms will offer
bespoke learning experiences, including educational content tailored to
individual student needs and pacing, and corporate and client training that
meets specific demands. Emergence of new job categories An increasing focus on
governance, risk mitigation, bias mitigation and other AI-related issues will
foster the emergence of new job categories. For example, AI trainers and
explainability experts will be needed to ensure that AI systems are fit for
purpose, transparent, understandable, and compliant with existing systems and
governance frameworks. Skills to address and monitor AI ethics and quality will
be crucial for responsible AI deployment, including the safeguarding of fairness
and identification of biases. Long term: Transformative changes AI will become
increasingly transformative over longer time frames due to the technology’s
advancing maturity, humanity’s growing expertise in effective implementation and
the regulatory landscape’s increasing clarity. Collaborative intelligence, a
framework in which humans and AI work together, should notably increase. In
creative industries, AI will assist humans by generating ideas, drafts and
prototypes. Architects, for example, could use AI-driven design software to
explore innovative building designs that incorporate complex environmental and
structural factors, leveraging datasets that encompass architectural history,
art, design, materials science and weather patterns. Autonomous systems AI will
support autonomous systems that transform industries. Autonomous vehicles will
revolutionize transportation and logistics, reducing the need for human drivers
and increasing efficiency. In agriculture, AI-powered robots with computer
vision and sensors to detect air pressure, moisture, color and light could
oversee planting, crop monitoring and harvesting, increasing productivity and
sustainability. Challenges will include cost-effectiveness, which must surpass
that of human labor to justify adoption. Predictive maintenance Manufacturing
and heavy industries will benefit from AI-enabled predictive maintenance. AI
will analyze data from sensors embedded in machinery to predict when maintenance
is required, preventing costly breakdowns and minimizing downtime. This
capability requires AI’s data processing and pattern recognition abilities,
coupled with digital telemetry systems to detect acoustic, visual and even
olfactory signals. Autonomous data analysis In fields such as finance and
research, AI-driven data analysis is already indispensable. AI systems can sift
through vast amounts of data, identify trends and generate insights with speed
and accuracy far beyond human capacity. This capability will be increasingly
crucial for making informed decisions in dynamic environments and will enable a
better understanding of the world around us, including risks such as climate
change, the energy crisis and geopolitical dynamics. Shifting labor dynamics
Advancements in the capabilities of AI systems and the dynamics of their
integration with human labor will necessitate broader rethinking to understand
the adaptations required of both AI and human work paradigms to improve
cooperation. Humans, for instance, outperform machines in relational tasks such
as comprehensive (verbal and nonverbal) communication and, at least to date,
innovation. Thus, in a framework of human-AI mutualism, we expect the balance of
such tasks to fall to humans, while many data analysis and computational tasks
will fall to AI. This may require workforce education in interpersonal skills
such as emotional intelligence, empathy and clarity of communication. Humans
will also need better human-to-AI communication skills, such as prompt
engineering, and a deeper understanding of AI operational requirements. Consider
a typical customer service scenario: A customer is unsatisfied with the quality
of goods received. In a world where AI and humans work together, required skills
include understanding the customer’s problem (human), analyzing possible
solutions (AI), relaying options with empathy to address the customer’s
emotional and social needs (human), and executing a course of action to address
functional needs (AI). Leadership and the workplace of choice Leadership in an
AI-augmented world will evolve as workers look to their leaders for vision,
systems thinking, and the ability to both analyze (extrapolate trends using
context, qualitative judgments and data-driven insights) and synthesize
(understand the interoperability of moving parts and connection to a greater
whole). As leaders will manage humans and AI systems together, the importance of
these abilities cannot be overstated. Analytical functions will become more
crucial as AI adoption takes hold, requiring leaders to adapt to increasing
customization and diversification of product offerings, as well as to the
interplay of skilled workers and AI systems required to deliver those products.
An understanding of synthesis will be critical as many traditional work
functions and systems become intersecting, looping and chained processes in
increasingly complex designs. Such complexity will likely change what humans
demand of their workplaces. Traditional compensation schemes such as salary and
variable pay will likely be augmented by purpose, culture and fit as an
increasing proportion of tasks allocated to human workers will require
distinctly human capabilities, such as emotional and social engagement.
Organizations must recognize that their brand represents not only their product
or service offerings or standard of quality to customers but also a workplace of
choice for employees. Workplaces will need to earn their employees’ business,
especially as employees’ nuanced personalities and skills become features in the
workplace itself, as much of the labor characterized by homogeneity becomes the
province of AI systems. Looking forward: From steam to silicon The idea of the
modern-day John Henry will remain relevant as AI’s remit expands and matures.
However, it is equally likely that many mundane, monotonous and undesirable
elements of work could become increasingly automated, and that, as a result,
humans — particularly those who learn to work in partnership with AI — may find
increasing value and standing in the labor force by cultivating and expressing
their most fundamentally human qualities. Look Forward: Artificial Intelligence
AI and society: Implications for global equality and quality of life Next
Article This article was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&P
Global and, in certain circumstances, external guest authors. The views
expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or
positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in
the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication
of S&P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit
rating methodologies. Contributors S&P Global Ratings Miriam Fernández, CFA
Director, AI Research Specialist S&P Global Market Intelligence Sheryl Kingstone
Research Director S&P Global Market Intelligence Chris Marsh Research Director
S&P Global Matt Tompkins Senior Editor S&P Global Cat VanVliet Associate
Director, Data Visualization S&P Global Ratings Paul Whitfield Writer


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News

Dec 17, 2024


US DOE SECRETARY SAYS LNG STUDY SHOWS NEED FOR CAUTION ON 'UNFETTERED' EXPORT
APPROVALS

Energy Transition, LNG, Natural Gas, Emissions December 17, 2024 US DOE
secretary says LNG study shows need for caution on 'unfettered' export approvals
By Corey Paul and Maya Weber Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
HIGHLIGHTS DOE releases report on climate, price impacts Granholm emphasizes
higher costs, emissions Trump expected to resume export approvals A
business-as-usual approach to authorizing US LNG exports is "neither sustainable
nor advisable," US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Dec. 17, as the
Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on environmental and
economic impacts of increased exports of the fossil fuel. The department cast
its final report as intended to inform future decisions on whether export
applications are in the public interest, but it came as the Biden administration
is poised to hand off those authorizations to President-elect Donald Trump, who
has promised to end a "pause" on approvals. The DOE announced plans for the
study alongside the permitting moratorium in January. "Further increasing
exports unconstrained would surely generate more wealth for the LNG industry,
but American consumers and communities and our climate would pay the price,"
Granholm said. In most scenarios the DOE considered, LNG exports already
approved by the agency "are more than sufficient to meet global demand for
decades to come," Granholm said. But the report did not go as far as drawing
broad conclusions about whether additional LNG exports are in or against the
public interest. The department released the study as final. DOE officials said
the agency did not intend to revise the document but that it would take comments
for 60 days to inform future decisions. A leading US LNG trade group criticized
the way the Biden officials characterized the study, saying "that much of the
narrative from the administration on the need for a pause in LNG export
authorizations and their framing of the study results runs counter to the actual
findings of the report." "The Department of Energy's US LNG export 'pause'
harmed the industry and called into question the role of the United States as a
global energy superpower," Charlie Riedl, the executive director of the
Washington-based Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, said in a statement. "This
study, which served as the justification for the pause, has yet again found that
US LNG exports provide benefits that serve the public interest." The report
found that "across all scenarios, modeled US domestic natural gas supply is
sufficient to meet modeled global demand for US LNG while continuing to meet
domestic demand." It also modeled a $410 billion increase in US GDP by 2050 as a
result of increasing LNG exports. Granholm's consumer price concerns But among
key findings highlighted by the energy secretary was that additional "unfettered
exports" would drive up wholesale domestic gas prices by about 31% and cost the
average US household up to $122.54 more per year in gas and electricity bills by
2050. That analysis was based on an assumption that the amount of US LNG
operating or under construction at the end of 2023, 23.7 Bcf/d, will increase
above authorized export levels to about 56.3 Bcf/d in 2050. Under this scenario,
the modeled price increase works out to about $0.03/MMBtu for every Bcf/d of
export capacity added beyond the December 2023 levels to reach an average
$4.62/MMBtu in 2050, up from $3.53/MMBtu. Overall energy costs to the industrial
sector would go up $125 billion from 2020 to 2050, Granholm said. The report
also weighed in on whether more exports of US LNG would raise or lower
greenhouse gas emissions. Granholm said the report showed additional US LNG
exports would globally displace more renewables than coal. "Assuming LNG exports
were to significantly increase, the report finds that the associated direct
emissions would be 1.5 gigatons per year by 2050, not considering the market
effects of those exports," Granholm said. "That's roughly a quarter all the
emissions the United States generates annually today." In five scenarios
examined, Granholm said higher LNG exports would lead to increased global net
emissions. The study was more nuanced, finding that "the ultimate global GHG
consequences of US LNG exports depend on market effects such as changes in
energy demand and the sources used to meet that demand for electricity and other
uses of natural gas." In a statement accompanying the report, Granholm also
emphasized that LNG facilities tend to be concentrated in communities already
facing burdens of pollution and that dramatic increases in exports could worsen
pollution in areas where oil and gas are extracted and processed. On energy
security considerations, Granholm said that while US LNG has been critical for
European allies the past few years, European demand is slated to decline along
with efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. "China's LNG imports are expected
to be the highest of any country through 2050," Granholm said in the statement.
The study was welcomed by nongovernmental organizations battling further export
approvals. Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's energy program, said the
study will provide "needed ammunition" to intervenors in DOE export proceedings
so that they can more clearly make the case that the pending export
authorization is not consistent with the public interest. "If Trump seeks to
quickly and sloppily approve these, we've got standing to sue in federal court,
and we've got the facts on our side," Slocum said. Gillian Giannetti, senior
attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said that the DOE has put the
study in the record of all the pending LNG projects. "They are officially in the
docket and are part of the record, which, of course, means that they are
evidence that needs to be considered, and failure to do so or to explain why
there is a justified reason not to do so is unlawful under both the Natural Gas
Act and the Administrative Procedure Act," Giannetti said. Editor: Karla Sanchez


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