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Skip to main content Axios * Sections * Local news * Axios Pro * About Axios * Sign up SECTIONS Politics & Policy * Black Lives Matter movement * Joe Biden * Donald Trump * Policymaking * Immigration Technology * Gaming * Big Tech * Misinformation * 5G * Data privacy * Surveillance * Automation and AI Economy & Business * Media * Stock market * Jobs * Transportation * Retail * Trade war Health * Coronavirus * Health care costs * Affordable Care Act * Medicare for All * Vaping * Public health World * Axios explains Ukraine * China * Afghanistan * Iran * Russia * Israel Energy & Environment * Climate change * Climate truths * Alternative energy * Oil companies * Electric vehicles Science * Space * Extreme weather Sports * NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL * NCAA * Sports betting * Beijing Winter Olympics LOCAL NEWS Get smarter, faster about your hometown. Sign up AtlantaAustinCharlotteChicagoColumbusDallasDenverDes MoinesNashvilleNW ArkansasPhiladelphiaTampa BayTwin CitiesWashington D.C. 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Sign up AXIOS GETS YOU SMARTER, FASTER WITH NEWS & INFORMATION THAT MATTERS. Our mission statement ABOUT * About Axios * Advertise with us * Careers * Events * Axios on HBO * Axios HQ * Privacy and terms * Online tracking choices * Contact us SUBSCRIBE * Axios newsletters * Axios Pro * Axios app * Axios podcasts * Courses * Earn Axios rewards 4 hours ago - Health NEW NORMAL FOR HEALTH CARE SPENDING * Tina Reed, author of Axios Vitals Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email Data: "National Health Expenditure Projections, 2021–30: Growth To Moderate As COVID-19 Impacts Wane," Poisal et al., 2022; Table: Will Chase/Axios U.S. health care spending is likely to grow at about the rate of inflation over the rest of the decade after the pandemic fueled a nearly 10% jump between 2019 and 2020, federal experts said Monday. The big picture: The CMS actuaries' projections in Health Affairs came with plenty of caveats. But if trends hold, out-of-pocket spending is going up, as is spending on private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid. What they're saying: "This outlook is contingent on a virus that has evolved and surprised at every turn — and could do so again," the authors wrote. By the numbers: National health spending surged 9.7% in 2020, rising from $3.8 trillion in spending in 2019 to $4.1 trillion in spending in 2020. * Spending growth is projected to drop to less than half of that, 4.2% in 2021, or about $4.3 trillion. * The actuaries project 4.6% spending growth in 2022, or about $4.5 trillion. Zoom out: Spending is expected to grow an average of 5.1% between 2021 and 2030 when it would reach almost $6.8 trillion. Growth in the Gross Domestic Product is also projected to be 5.1% annually over the same period. * That will keep the health share of the economy at just shy of 20%. * Spending should be driven by more traditional economic, demographic and health-specific factors after it surged on pandemic-fueled assistance to health providers, public health programs and Medicaid payments. Between the lines: Costs are also projected to rise. * For those on private health insurance plans, per-enrollee spending dropped nearly half a percent in 2020 before rising by a projected 5.5% in 2021. The report projects an 8.3% jump in 2022 and 7.2% increase in 2023. * Per enrollee spending on Medicare is projected to jump 9.4% in 2021, 5.1% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. Per enrollee spending on Medicaid is projected to increase 2% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022, and 6% in 2023. * Out of pocket spending dropped by 3.7% in 2020. Projections show it jumping 4.6% in 2021 and 6.1% in 2022. The bottom line: Health spending is going up (big surprise!) in traditional categories like hospitals, prescription drugs and doctors and clinical services through 2024 while pandemic-related effects like COVID vaccines, testing and treatment and expanded Medicaid coverage fall off. Editor's note: This story has been corrected to show that national health spending reached $4.1 trillion in 2020, not $4.2 trillion. Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email GO DEEPER * Sara Fischer * Dan Primack 32 mins ago - Economy & Business SCOOP: ONLYFANS WANTS TO GO PUBLIC Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios OnlyFans has held talks with multiple blank check companies, or SPACs, about a merger to take it public, sources tell Axios. Why it matters: OnlyFans is a massive social media platform, with millions of monthly users who've cumulatively paid out billions of dollars to creators. But its adult content has spooked some potential investors and SPAC partners. Go deeper (2 min. read) Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email * Jacob Knutson 46 mins ago - Politics & Policy ROMNEY: SECOND TRUMP TERM WOULD FORCE NATO TO "RETHINK" RELIANCE ON U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) told CNN that he believes NATO members would have to "rethink" whether they can rely on the United States to defend other countries if former President Trump is re-elected. Why it matters: Trump throughout his term repeatedly criticized NATO as one-sided and bad for America — even describing it as "obsolete" at one point — raising fears among European allies that he would either make U.S. involvement conditional or pull the country out of the defensive alliance altogether. Go deeper (1 min. read) Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email * Zachary Basu 1 hour ago - World RUSSIA CLAIMS IT WILL SCALE BACK FIGHTING NEAR KYIV TO HELP PEACE TALKS Photo: Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Russia's defense ministry said Tuesday it would drastically scale back military operations near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv in order to "increase mutual trust" for a potential peace deal with Ukraine — though advances on both cities had already stalled. Why it matters: The announcement came after several hours of peace talks in Istanbul that both Russian and Ukrainian negotiators characterized as constructive, but there has yet to be a clear on-the-ground reduction in forces or shelling. Go deeper (1 min. read) Axios on facebookAxios on twitterAxios on linkedinAxios on email NEWS WORTHY OF YOUR TIME. 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