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Submitted URL: https://cg9rw04.na1.hubspotlinks.com/Ctc/LU+113/cg9RW04/VX4rKY5QRrdwW6Rj2Br3-fkLdW6mk3Cf5gM05yN5l4bk03m2ndW7Y8-PT6lZ3pLW69M9Z61Zk_p0W...
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Submission Tags: falconsandbox
Submission: On June 27 via api from US — Scanned from DE

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CHOKEPOINTS: 5 GLOBAL WATERWAYS AT RISK OF DISRUPTION

Global Digest, Global Intelligence

    
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As part of the Worldwide Threat Assessment, Global Guardian has identified
chokepoints where, due to climate-related and geopolitical disruptions, the
safety of shipping lanes is no longer guaranteed. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 7, 2024

INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND:

 * What is a chokepoint?
 * Current chokepoints at risk
 * Future chokepoints at risk

 

This analysis of global chokepoints is adapted from Global Guardian’s 2024
Worldwide Threat Assessment. For more information on this topic and additional
insight on the emerging geopolitical threats facing travelers and organizations
today, download the latest Worldwide Threat Assessment. 

Globalization is predicated on the free movement of goods across vast
geographies. Today, 90% of all globally traded goods are moved by sea, with
shipping container volume expected to triple by 2050. Merchant shipping relies
on certain trade routes to move goods efficiently. Control over these waterways
has always been coveted, often bringing with it lucrative rents and geostrategic
advantages. 

Today, a lack of physical, security, and environmental stewardship over maritime
checkpoints is endangering international trade. The “Axis of Disorder” — China,
Russia, North Korea, and Iran — is contesting the world order in a time when the
economic and military forces that used to maintain free and open waterways are
no longer as strong. As a result, maritime chokepoints are of major global
concern going forward.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WHAT IS A CHOKEPOINT?

In maritime shipping, a chokepoint refers to a narrow passage along a waterway
that is critical for the movement of vessels and their goods. These chokepoints
are often natural features, such as straits or channels, which connect larger
bodies of water, like oceans or seas. They are vital for global trade because
they often represent the shortest or most efficient routes between major ports
or regions. 



Due to their narrowness and strategic importance, chokepoints can also be
vulnerable to geopolitical conflict, piracy, or natural disasters. Disruptions
at these chokepoints can have significant impacts on global trade, leading to
delays, increased shipping costs, and potential shortages of goods. 

Global Guardian has identified five major chokepoints where, due to both
climate-related and geopolitical disruptions, the safety of these shipping lanes
is no longer guaranteed. 

Threats to these chokepoints are not going away anytime soon, and are set to
increase in this current environment. Understanding these chokepoints is crucial
for planning for a future where one, or many, of these waterways is
impassable.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CURRENT CHOKEPOINTS AT RISK


1. BOSPHORUS STRAIT

The Bosphorus Strait connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. It serves
as an important transit point for grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizer. Together,
Russian and Ukrainian nitrogenous fertilizer exports accounted for 28% of the
global market in 2022 and prior to the war, Ukraine produced 50% of the world’s
sunflower oil. Central Asian states and Azerbaijan also rely on the Bosphorus
for oil exports through the Caspian Sea Pipeline to Russian ports on the Black
Sea.  

Primary risk: Geopolitical.  

The Black Sea is currently a theatre of war between Russia and Ukraine. In
addition to multiple instances of Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other’s
civilian shipping, there have been at least four instances of floating mines
damaging ships or washing up on shore. Insurance has also been affected with war
risk premiums for Black Sea shipping reaching 10% of hull value, exceeding the
cost of hiring the cargo ships. Most of Ukraine’s foodstuff exports run through
the Bosphorus to developing countries where food prices have an outsized impact
on economic and political wellbeing. When Ukraine was allowed to resume grain
shipments via the Black Sea, global food prices dropped almost 20%, highlighting
the macroeconomic impacts of the war on the global grain market.





2. PANAMA CANAL

The Panama Canal facilitates movement from the Atlantic to Pacific Oceans. It is
the primary route for maritime trade between the U.S. East Coast and East Asia
and is critical for the movement of agricultural goods from the Western to the
Eastern hemisphere. 6% of the world’s maritime commerce flows through the Panama
Canal and it is the most economical method of moving goods from one side of
North America to the other. The Canal shortens the maritime journey from New
York to Los Angeles by roughly 11 thousand kilometers.  

Primary risk: Climate.  

October 2023 — peak rain season — marked the region’s lowest rainfall since
1950. As a result, Gatun Lake, which feeds the canal's locks, has begun to dry
up. This has decreased how many ships can travel through the canal by 50%
capacity. Last-minute canal booking slots, which are auctioned, have been sold
for prices as high as 10 times the normal transit fee (USD $400,000). The
current dry spell is not isolated, Panama experienced its three driest
consecutive years from 2013 to 2015. The El Niño events that spur the rain
shortages are expected to become more frequent, meaning that capacity reductions
in the Panama Canal are likely to become a perennial challenge. 





3. BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Mediterranean via the Red Sea to the
Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden. Around 10% of overall global trade volume and
12% of all seaborne travel through this chokepoint. Bab el-Mandeb also
facilities the internal movement of half of the Middle East’s goods. Owing to
its strategic location, and the Strait’s history of piracy, the U.S., China,
France, Italy, China, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates all possess military
bases abutting the Strait.  

Primary risk: Geopolitical.  

Piracy emanating from Somalia is a perennial issue. But since 2015, when the
Iranian-backed Houthi Movement took control of most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast,
attacks on commercial shipping have become a major threat. The Strait is a key
fixture of Iran and Israel’s hybrid war and since November 2023, the Houthis
have been targeting transiting vessels with unmanned drones and anti-ship
missiles. Shipping volume through the Strait has now dropped by 70%. It is
possible that the Houthis will soon start to damage the undersea cables that
traverse Bab el-Mandeb.  





4. SUEZ CANAL

The Suez Canal provides entry to the Mediterranean Sea in the north from the Red
Sea to the south. The Suez Canal bypasses Africa, making it the quickest sea
route between Asia and Europe. Between 10% and 12% of global trade transits
through the Suez Canal, including around 30% of all cargo container ships. The
Suez is also home to 16 undersea cables, making it one of the most important
nodes in the global telecommunication system. Approximately 17 % of the world’s
internet traffic travels along these cables.   

Primary risk: Climate.  

On 21 March 2021, the Ever Given, a 400-meter-long containership traveling from
Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia, to the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands, became lodged
in the canal obstructing all traffic for six days. By 28 March 2021, over 400
ships were waiting to navigate the canal amounting to USD $1 billion of direct
economic damage. Weather conditions played a large role in the beaching of the
Ever Given. The incident was preceded by 43.6°C (110°F) heat and 112 kph (70
mph) winds. The combination of poor visibility and extreme winds grounded the
vessel. Compared with today, extreme heat events reaching 45°C (113°F) in this
region are expected to double by 2050. This event demonstrates how weather
events — which are expected to worsen — can threaten critical trade routes and
disrupt global supply chains.  





5. STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The strait of Hormuz offers passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean –
21% of global petroleum liquids pass through this vital artery. Asia’s energy
security and the stability of oil prices depend on the free flow of merchant
vessels through this chokepoint. 

Primary risk: Geopolitical.  

Iran has long weaponized its geography. In the 1980s and again in 2019, Iran has
employed hijacking and mining in this Strait. On 11 January 2024, Iran seized an
oil tanker involved in a U.S.-Iran dispute, precipitating American intervention
in the Red Sea against the Houthis. Iran has many anti-ship capabilities it can
use to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility exists, should Iran wish
to escalate and generate leverage vis a vis the U.S. and Israel, that Tehran
places mines in the Strait or even uses more attributable measures including
anti-ship cruise missiles, hijackings, and small boat attacks to disrupt the
global energy supply.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FUTURE CHOKEPOINTS AT RISK

Trade routes have become a major avenue for geopolitical competition, another
way for adversarial states to contest Western interests. As it stands today,
Western-friendly governments are only in control of one-third of the chokepoints
connecting global sea lanes. Meanwhile, members of the Axis of Disorder can
feasibly threaten access to 64%. Hostile states or non-state actors with
geographic proximity to key maritime chokepoints can blackmail the West into
granting concessions or tolerating destabilizing behavior in exchange for
access, a tactic that could be used in Taiwan in the not-too-distant future. 

Additional chokepoints, therefore, are at risk of disruption. These include:  

 * East China Sea
 * South China Sea
 * GIUK Gap
 * Bering Strait
 * Darvis Strait 
 * Barents Sea 

For more information on future chokepoints, including stakeholders and risks,
download the latest Worldwide Threat Assessment from Global Guardian. 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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