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UNITED OPPOSITION POSES STERN TEST FOR VUČIĆ IN SERBIA’S ELECTION

After two mass shootings in Serbia in May, opposition parties have united
against what they see as a government culture of brutality.

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić | Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images
By Una Hajdari
December 7, 2023 2:28 pm CET
8 minutes read
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Voiced by artificial intelligence.

BELGRADE — Serbian firebrand President Aleksandar Vučić’s penchant for
perpetually calling elections looks liable to come back and bite him, as a
united opposition is mounting an unexpectedly stern challenge to his decade-long
grip on power in a snap general election on December 17.

Seizing on public outrage over two tragic mass shootings in May — which killed
19 people, including 10 at a Belgrade school — the opposition has pulled
together under the banner Serbia Against Violence, claiming Vučić’s
administration inspires a culture of brutality propagated in part through
divisive television programming and coarse reality shows.

It’s a political groundswell that builds upon festering fears that Vučić is
presiding over a glaring decline in the EU candidate country’s democratic
standards, press freedoms and the independence of public institutions.



Serbia Against Violence is now polling at about 40 percent, while Vučić’s
coalition has around 49 percent support, according to CRTA, an independent
election monitor. While that means the president’s allies are still on course to
win, they could be badly bruised. Crucially, Belgrade’s coveted mayoral seat in
hangs in the balance, with numerous polling agencies forecasting an opposition
triumph in the capital.


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Victory in Belgrade would hold more than talismanic significance. The opposition
built up core support as during activism against illegal construction and in
decrying contracts for grandiose projects doled out to Vučić’s cronies in the
capital.

“I am confident that the results will show that citizens are fed up with
violence, corruption and crime generated by the ruling party,” Dobrica
Veselinović of the Green-Left Front, one of parties united in a big-tent
opposition coalition, told POLITICO. He added that the opposition had “energized
a large number of citizens and encouraged them to become involved” at a higher
level than over past years.

Vučić’s go-to strategy for retaining power is continual electioneering, with
five elections held since his party’s ascent to government in 2012 — an average
of an election every two years. No government has completed a full mandate, and
strategically timed elections distract from pressing issues like protests or
tensions with Kosovo, leaving opposition parties perennially on the defensive.

Though not a candidate himself in these elections — he comfortably secured his
second mandate as president last year — Vučić looms large as he predominantly
orchestrates the campaigns for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), and its
electoral list bears his name.

Zeroing in on the country’s democratic failings under Vučić, German Foreign
Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday called for a fair Serbian election in
which candidates should all receive equal media access. She also complained
that, during the last election, there had been “pressure on voters and abuse of
public offices and resources on the part of the government.”




THE ALPHA AND THE OMEGA

Despite growing frustration with Vučić, he has the persistent electoral
advantage of continuing to be seen as the only leader with the credibility to
handle the country’s big strategic problems on the international stage. These
include relations with Kosovo and maintaining Belgrade’s diplomatic balancing
act between Russia and the EU.

Fears over regional instability again peaked in late September when a heavily
armed group led by Milan Radoičić, a controversial businessman and Vučić’s
hidden hand among Kosovo Serbs, mounted an attack in the north Kosovo village of
Banjska, killing an ethnic Albanian policeman.

Navigating Serbia’s relationship with Kosovo, declared independent in 2008 but
still unrecognized by Serbia, remains a thorn in the side for every Belgrade
politician since Kosovo, formerly a Serbian province, broke away following the
1999 NATO bombing of Serbia and Montenegro.

Fears over regional instability again peaked in late September when a heavily
armed group mounted an attack in the north Kosovo village of Banjska | Armend
Nimani/AFP via Getty Images

While figures such as Veselinović and other opposition candidates are
increasingly household names, they remain largely untested internationally. Over
the past decade, Vučić has not only been the sole face of Serbia abroad, but
also consistently involved in negotiations with the majority-Albanian government
in Kosovo.

“Vučić successfully imposed a narrative that there is no alternative to him on
the Serbian political scene when it comes to collaborating with the West — and
foreign partners bought it,” explained Srđan Majstorović, chairman of the board
for the European Policy Center, a nongovernmental organization.

The West bears part of the blame for that, Majstorović said. “During the regular
visits by high-level international representatives and political figures, there
was rarely a desire or interest to get to know the opposition — probably so they
would not upset Vučić as the alpha and omega of political life in Serbia.”



Vučić’s SNS won the 2012 elections and has held an increasingly firm grip on
power ever since. Vučić was also placed at the helm of the EU-facilitated
dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, a platform for high-level political
representatives from the two sides to meet and attempt to iron out
disagreements.

Majstorović recalled that in 2008 and 2009, “Representatives from the SNS who
later became ministers, ambassadors and presidential advisors were welcome
guests at foreign embassies in Belgrade, and were being intentionally socialized
as an alternative to the incumbent government.”


EU ASPIRATIONS

Serbia’s tightrope walk is, if anything, now more difficult than ever: Vučić
wants to give Serbians a perspective toward deeper integration with the EU,
while simultaneously showing fraternity with Russia and not joining Western
sanctions against Moscow.

In contrast to neighboring Balkan nations such as Bosnia, Albania and North
Macedonia, the governments of which avidly champion EU integration, the
leadership of Serbia — a candidate since 2012 — remains cautious not to appear
overly eager to collaborate with Brussels.

Playing into this is a perception that the EU is pressuring Serbia to recognize
Kosovo, as well as the sluggish pace of integration into the EU.

Still, Vučić’s party is clear on its ultimate goal regarding EU accession.



“The policy of the Serbian Progressive Party has not changed since its founding.
Serbia needs to become a fully fledged member of the European Union,” the
current head of SNS, Miloš Vučević, told POLITICO. “We desire membership for the
sake of our own citizens and because we believe it is in the country’s best
interests,” he said.

“The policy of the Serbian Progressive Party has not changed since its founding.
Serbia needs to become a fully fledged member of the European Union,” said Miloš
Vučević | Stephanie Lecocq/EFE via EPA

Independent polling over the years has shown that overall public support for
joining the 27-nation grouping usually hovers around 40 percent, occasionally
flicking up to 60 percent.

“Public opinion polls of sentiments toward the EU are important, but election
results are a much better indicator,” Vučević said. “Political options that
support Serbia’s membership in the EU won over 80 percent of the votes” last
year, he added.

“Does this mean that over 80 percent of Serbs are in favor of membership?
Certainly not. But it means that only the Serbian Progressive Party can bring
Serbia into the EU,” Vučević concluded.


PERIL OF OVEREXPECTATION

In a recent televised debate on the independent N1 channel that included
participation from all opposition party representatives — though not the SNS and
the Serbian Socialist Party, its coalition partner — all the opposition
candidates expressed skepticism toward recent agreements reached in the
EU-facilitated dialogue with Kosovo. Candidates focused largely around the same
talking point: that Serbia is being forced to act against its own interests when
it comes to Kosovo.

This could prove a worrying trend for Western officials, who have already
invested a decade in trying to resolve one of the region’s most intractable
conflicts.



With a challenging year ahead that includes EU and national elections in Europe,
not to mention the United States presidential election, another mandate for the
SNS would spare the West from the hassle of starting over in building
relationships with a new government in Serbia.

But that would translate into ignoring the plunge in democratic standards in the
country. While the situation was far from ideal before 2012, watchdogs ranging
from Reporters without Borders to Freedom House have noted a significant dip in
freedom of the press, institutional independence and general transparency.

Freedom House classified Serbia as a “partly free” state, with low rankings on
civil liberties and political rights. It highlighted the difficulty for
independent actors to make inroads in government and the public sphere.

For Majstorović, the opposition faces a predicament similar to the one seen
immediately after the Yugoslav wars, when the ousting of strongman Slobodan
Milošević left the country in shambles and the West too eager for immediate
results.

If the opposition were to win, a new government could face “déjà vu,”
Majstorović warned. “The expectations from the West would be too difficult to
handle overnight.”

Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.





More from ... Una Hajdari



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