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THE VIX TESTS 40 BEFORE SMALL-CAP STOCKS LEAD A BOUNCE BACK RALLY

JJ Kinahan  

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Advertiser Disclosure The following post was written and/or published as a
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January 25, 2022 6:12am   7 min read   Comments
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(Monday Market Close) Stocks started the week in a downslide, with the S&P
500 (SPX) falling nearly 4% after the open. However, small-caps stocks started
the intraday recovery with the Russell 2000 (RUT) bouncing off its morning lows
after falling 5.5% in the morning. The small-cap index rallied back into
positive territory and closed 2.29% higher thanks in large part to energy
stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMP) were also able to bounce
off their lows to close in positive territory.

The massive sell-off and recovery could be the sign of capitulation that
investors have been hoping for. When finally backed into a corner with what
appeared to be real panic selling, bargain hunters seem to have stepped in and
started buying. It could also be a good sign that investors started their
bargain hunting with the riskier small-cap stocks demonstrating that these
stocks have fallen to valuations where the risk is low enough to make the
companies worthwhile. Even bitcoin rallied to positive territory alongside small
caps, reflecting the change in appetite for risk.




Hopefully, over the next week, the larger companies can demonstrate greater
strength. They could get some help from Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)
stocks because half of them report earnings this week. In fact, International
Business Machines (IBM) reported after the closing bell and rallied 6.79% on the
news that the company beat on earnings and revenue forecasts. The company had
been working on a turnaround plan that appears to be taking shape particularly
in its cloud services division. The Dow Jones closed in the green despite being
down 1,100 points intraday. It was helped by Home Depot (HD), which traded 4.21%
higher on the day. 

Despite the roller coaster of a day, some stocks rallied. Kohls (KSS) rocketed
over 36% on news that an activist investor consortium led by Starboard Value LP
proposed a deal valued at $9 billion. Clothing stocks appeared to be hot
because Gap (GPS) also rallied 7.94% because some investors may be thinking that
it also has merger potential. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) rallied 4.85% despite no
immediately related news.

Oil prices fell despite the continuing tension at the Ukrainian and Russian
border. The United States and the United Kingdom have withdrawn some diplomats
from Ukraine as NATO sends more ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe. Rising
tensions in the oil-rich area could cause oil prices to move higher.


A WEEK TO TEST WILLS

This could be a big week for stocks with heavy hitters
like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) reporting. Additionally,
the Federal Reserve will meet this week and hopefully lay out a plan for hiking
interest rates in the near future; this could give investors some confidence in
their plan to curb inflation. While these news events will be great for those of
us who write market commentary, they could spell headaches for investors.

Stocks like Apple and Tesla often provide an insight into investor psychology,
so this week could be a “vote of confidence” from investors on market strength.
Apple has been a mainstay for investors and has often demonstrated strength
compared to other technology stocks. Even with the recent pullback, Apple is
down about 11% compared to the Nasdaq Composite ($COMP), which is down more than
16% from its highs. Tesla has been a “buy the dip” kind of stock, and investors
have been willing to go to that well several times. However, with the Fed
raising rates, investors may not be so willing to drink from these wells.

Despite the enormous rally to end the day, there’s no reason for volatility to
fade. The bears could strike back later this week over concerns about earnings
for technology companies, particularly those that deal in the cloud.
Fortunately, IBM was able to show progress in its cloud business, but Microsoft
had a range that stretched more than $20 on Monday.

The problem comes with rising rates and investors still trying to determine
valuations. Pandemic plays were all over the map, with Netflix (NFLX) falling
11% to close down 2.60%. Zoom (ZM) rallied 3.58%. Peloton (PTON) rallied 9.79%
as activist investors cry for the CEO to be fired and the company be sold.
Finally, DocuSign (DOCU) also fell more than 7% but closed 4.91% higher.


CORRECTION VS. BEAR MARKET

As previously noted, the Nasdaq is in correction territory. A correction is
classified as a market pullback between 10% and 19%. A bear market is a
declining market that has dropped 20% or more. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap
index was down about 20% at its intraday lows on Monday, which would’ve put it
in bear market territory. All other major indices including the S&P 500 (SPX)
and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) are near correction territory.

A correction can be quite healthy for stocks in that it helps weed out
overvalued companies and allows other stocks to revert to their earnings means,
or in other words, trade more in-line with their actual earnings growth. A bear
market is different in that it tends to signal that there may be something wrong
with the underlying economy. Stocks are commonly said to run about six months
ahead of the economy.

The VIX (Cboe Market Volatility Index) can be helpful in signaling a correction
versus a bear market by paying attention to certain levels. In 2021, market
pullbacks often turned around when the VIX was near 30 (see below). However, in
2020, that level was around 40. And that 40 level stretches back into the
previous two decades. The dot-com bubble burst and the bear market bottomed out
soon after the VIX hit 40. But the 2008 credit crisis changed everything. The
VIX can now spike above 40 during a correction, and the last two bear markets
saw spikes around 90 before creating bottoms.   

CHART OF THE DAY: THE RUB ON THE VIX. The VIX, or Cboe Market Volatility Index
(VIX), has broken above its 2021 reversal level (red line upper chart) and is
testing a long-term reversal level (blue line in both charts). Data Sources:
ICE, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For
illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


LANGUAGE BARRIER

The world’s central banks don’t appear to be speaking the same language as the
U.S. Federal Reserve is talking about tightening the U.S. money supply. European
central banks are holding off on tightening as long as possible. And Asian
central banks are increasing their money supplies to stimulate their economies.

The Federal Reserve is meeting this week to discuss its monetary policy plans.
The Fed has greatly reduced its bond-buying stimulus efforts and should quit
them entirely by March. Then the markets are expecting the Fed to increase the
overnight rate by a quarter of a point in March. This is because the Fed is
concerned that the higher rate of inflation is at risk of becoming structural
and not transitory.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has rejected calls to increase
rates to combat soaring inflation and prefers to wait on the inflation problems
correcting themselves as supply chain bottlenecks open up and producers get back
to work when COVID-19 restriction are lifted in Europe. The largest increases in
prices have been due to energy prices, so getting through the winter months
could also be a big help. Lagarde stated that an important difference is that
Europe isn’t seeing the “excessive demand” that the United States is.

Last week, the People’s Bank of China cut a couple different interest rates to
try and stimulate economic growth. China isn’t seeing the same degree of
inflation because consumer spending has slowed, regulations have tightened, and
the property sector is struggling. The housing market has been troubled by
overborrowing from homebuilders and now they need to refinance the debt to lower
levels, so it becomes more serviceable.

These conditions are likely to push the U.S. dollar higher, which has normally
been a drag on large- and mega-cap international companies and help domestic
small-cap companies. Perhaps this morning’s small-cap led rally is a good sign
that investors are recognizing the favorable position for the group.

TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.

Image sourced from Unsplash

This post contains sponsored advertising content. This content is for
informational purposes only and not intended to be investing advice.




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Latter Abandons The Crypto Project: WSJMeta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) is
winding down its ...Benzinga


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Ford CEO Jim Farley Bats For Joe Biden's EV IncentivesFord Motor Inc (NYSE: F)
CEO Jim Farley on Wednesday said he supports President Joe Biden’s signature
$1.75 trillion Build Back Better (BBB) ...Benzinga


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Ethereum Burning Intensified In January — Is The No. 2 Crypto About To Chart A
Course To Recovery?The amount of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) burned soared in January
...Benzinga


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Why Alibaba And Other Tech Stocks Are Dragging The Hang Seng Index Lower
TodayShares of U.S.-listed Chinese tech companies traded notably lower in Hong
Kong on Thursday, dragging the benchmark Hang Seng Index into negative
...Benzinga


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Boite A Scoop

Greta Thunberg: Ihr Vermögen schockiert die WeltBoite A Scoop|
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Daily Sport X

20 Zeichen, dass ein Herzinfarkt bevorstehtDaily Sport X|
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McDonald's Responds To Elon Musk: We Will Accept Dogecoin If Tesla Accepts This
CryptocurrencyBenzinga


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Shiba Inu Announces A 'Special Surprise' For 2022; A Whole New World For The
CryptoBenzinga


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Nutravia

Därme: Ein einfacher Trick, um sie vollständig zu entleerenNutravia|
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Apotheken Gesundheit

Augenringe im Alter: Dieses Mittel sollten Frauen kennenApotheken Gesundheit|
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Is It A Good Time To Buy Semiconductor Stocks? This Expert Says It's 'Getting
Pretty Dicey'Danielle Shay, director of options at Simpler Trading, is looking
for opportunities in the semiconductor space amid the recent mar...Benzinga


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Which Will Happen First, Bitcoin At $100K Or Dogecoin At $1? The Choice Is
ClearEvery week, Benzinga conducts a survey to collect sentiment on what traders
are most excited about, interested in or thinking about as they manage
...Benzinga


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