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Views from the Desk


PODCAST: TRUMP VS. BIDEN: HOW THE U.S. ELECTION COULD IMPACT MARKETS - MAY
15, 2024

Chris Heakes MFin, CFA, Director, ETF Portfolio Manager
Matt Montemurro Head of Fixed Income and Equity Index ETFs
May 15, 2024
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 * 

With the 2024 U.S. presidential election just under six months away, headlines
are heating up. In today’s episode, Portfolio Managers Chris Heakes, Matt
Montemurro, and your host, Mckenzie Box, explore what the outcome could mean for
your investments. They also discuss oil prices, opportunities outside of Canada,
and the latest U.S. inflation print.

McKenzie Box is Vice President of Product Management and Strategy at BMO Global
Asset Management. She is joined on the podcast by Chris Heakes and Matt
Montemurro, Portfolio Managers and ETF Specialists at BMO Global Asset
Management. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, May 15, 2024.

 * 
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EPISODE SUMMARY

Upcoming U.S. Elections

We’re just six month away from the U.S. presidential election in November and
whether it is a Republican or Democrat win, it doesn’t change the fact that the
U.S. has one of the strongest economies and consumers, which in the long term is
positive for U.S. equities. Both Biden and Trump have an element of
protectionism that has come out of deglobalization. That along with taxes are
both big themes. There are significant personal tax cuts that are coming due in
2026. Trump pledges to keep those tax rates low, Biden is suggesting to only
keep those tax cuts if you are under a certain income threshold. Both
candidates’ proposed policies can be viewed as inflationary. Election time
brings about uncertainty, which can also create volatility, so it is an
opportunity to make portfolios more robust. Perhaps improving a traditional
60/40 portfolio by adding some gold bullion to help provide diversification to
the overall portfolio.

 * BMO Gold Bullion ETF (Ticker: ZGLD)

Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices have declined below $80 per barrel,
falling from their April highs. Likely due to geopolitical risks, rather than
a fundamental shift in supply and demand. The conflict in the Middle East has
probably drove prices higher, but some of those concerns have been fading. With
potential higher rates for longer, you could also see slower growth.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Tuesday and they
announced that they’re sticking to their forecast of relatively strong global
demand for 2024. We are also seeing wildfires plaguing Western Canada that can
have an impact on oil prices. It could be a supply shock that sends prices
shooting upwards. Our Multi-Asset Solutions Team (MAST) is neutral on energy,
with some upside from here. They are targeting a $80-$90 range per barrel.

 * BMO Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (Ticker: ZEO)

International Equities

There are lot of opportunities in foreign markets and ETFs are great tools for
exposure outside of North America. Just looking at Japan and India, which had
excellent returns over the past few years. The fundament economic conditions
have been improving in Japan, with the government being very business friendly.
Inflation has come back a bit in Japan, which is good for their economy. Warren
Buffet has been increasing his holdings in Japan. India has been a kind of
a darling of emerging markets for many years. Their gross domestic product (GDP)
growth is at about 8% and it’s actually been accelerating coming out of COVID.
The rise of their middle class is one of their most attractive stories. A good
portion of the population does not have a smartphone, so there is room for
growth. If it suits your risk tolerance, India can be an excellent growth
opportunity. 

 * BMO MSCI India ESG Leaders Index ETF (Ticker: ZID)

U.S. Inflation Print

After three consecutive hotter than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints,
the U.S. finally got a little reprieve from rising prices. Year-over-year
inflation printed at 3.4%, which was in line with expectations. This calmed
fears that interest rates were not high enough to calm inflation. Both headline
and core prices rose by 0.3%. In April, a tick slower than the increases that
registered in March, that left the annual rate of headline inflation
decelerating to 3.4%, and core inflation at 3.6%. In addition to CPI, we also
saw retail sales stall a bit, so we are starting to see some evidence that the
U.S. economy is slowing, which gives the Fed some room to exhale. Yields have
fallen across the curve with the recent inflation print, and as a result risk
assets have been responding well.

 * BMO Short-Term US Treasury Bond Index ETF (Ticker: ZTS)

 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

ZMMK, total returns as at 2024/04/30: 1yr: 5.18%, 2yr: 4.26%, SI: 3.57%

ZID, total returns as at 2024/04/30: 1yr: 25.50%, 3yr: 12.57%, 5yr: 11.14%,
10yr: 13.46%, SI: 8.89%

 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 






 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

Disclaimers:

The viewpoints expressed by the Portfolio Manager represent their assessment of
the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change
without notice at any time. The information contained herein is not, and should
not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Investments
should be evaluated relative to the individual’s investment objectives and
professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance. Any
statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking
statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance.

Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking
statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They
involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based
on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance
that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are
cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection
with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the
areas of risk described in the most recent prospectus.

The BMO ETFs or securities referred to herein are not sponsored, endorsed or
promoted by MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”), and MSCI bears no liability with respect to any
such BMO ETFs or securities or any index on which such BMO ETFs or securities
are based. The prospectus of the BMO ETFs contains a more detailed description
of the limited relationship MSCI has with BMO Asset Management Inc. and any
related BMO ETFs.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments
in exchange traded funds. Please read the ETF Facts or prospectus of the BMO
ETFs before investing. Exchange traded funds are not guaranteed, their values
change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs, please see the
specific risks set out in the BMO ETF’s prospectus. BMO ETFs trade like stocks,
fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value,
which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are
subject to change and/ or elimination.

BMO ETFs are managed by BMO Asset Management Inc., which is an investment fund
manager and a portfolio manager, and a separate legal entity from Bank of
Montreal.

This podcast is for information purposes. The information contained herein is
not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any
party. Particular investments and/ or trading strategies should be evaluated
relative to the individual’s investment objectives and professional advice
should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.

“BMO (M-bar roundel symbol)” is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used
under licence.

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LEGAL

Privacy Legal Security Regulatory Documents Modern Slavery Act Statement

Disclosures

BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management
Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate. 

Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking
statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They
involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based
on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance
that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are
cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection
with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the
areas of risk described in the most recent prospectus. 

The reports on this website are for information purposes. The information
contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or
legal advice to any party. Investments should be evaluated relative to the
individual’s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained
with respect to any circumstance.

The Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates (“SPDJI”),
and has been licensed for use by the Manager. S&P®, S&P 500®, US 500, The 500,
iBoxx®, iTraxx® and CDX® are trademarks of S&P Global, Inc. or its affiliates
(“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings
LLC (“Dow Jones”), and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and
sublicensed for certain purposes by the Manager. The ETF is not sponsored,
endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective
affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the
advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for
any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the Index.

Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. (which with its affiliates is
referred to as the “Corporations”) and is licensed for use by the Manager. The
ETF has not been passed on by the Corporations as to their legality or
suitability. The ETF is not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the
Corporations. The Corporations make no warranties and bear no liability with
respect to the ETF.

The ETF referred to herein is not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by MSCI and
MSCI bears no liability with respect to the ETF or any index on which such ETF
is based. The ETF’s prospectus contains a more detailed description of the
limited relationship MSCI has with the Manager and any related ETF.

Solactive AG (“Solactive”) is the licensor of Solactive Index. The ETF that is
based on the Solactive Index is not sponsored, endorsed, promoted or sold by
Solactive in any way and Solactive makes no express or implied representation,
guarantee or assurance with regard to: (a) the advisability in investing in the
ETF; (b) the quality, accuracy and/ or completeness of the Solactive Index; and/
or © the results obtained or to be obtained by any person or entity from the use
of the Solactive Index. Solactive reserves the right to change the methods of
calculation or publication with respect to the Solactive Index. Solactive shall
not be liable for any damages suffered or incurred as a result of the use (or
inability to use) of the Solactive Index.

The ETF is not in any way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by, FTSE Global
Debt Capital Markets Inc. (“FTSE Canada”) or Frank Russell Company (“Russell”)
(together the “Licensor Parties”). The Licensor Parties make no claim,
prediction, warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly,
either as to (i) the results to be obtained from the use of the FTSE Canada
Index(es) or the Russell Index(es), (ii) and/ or the figure at which the said
FTSE Canada Index(es) or Russell Index(es) stands at any particular time on any
particular day or otherwise, or (iii) the suitability of the FTSE Canada
Index(es) and/ or the Russell Index(es) for the purpose to which it is being put
in connection with the ETF mentioned herein. The FTSE Canada Index(es) is/ are
compiled and calculated by and all copyright in the Index values and constituent
list vests in FTSE Canada. The Russell Index(es) is/ are calculated by Russell
or its agent. The Licensor Parties shall not be liable (whether in negligence or
otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index and the Licensor Parties
shall not be under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein.
“Russell®” is a trademark of Frank Russell Company.

“BLOOMBERG®” and the Bloomberg Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the
administrator of the Index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed
for use for certain purposes by BMO Asset Management Inc. (the “Licensee”).
Bloomberg is not affiliated with the Licensee, and Bloomberg does not approve,
endorse, review, or recommend the ETF. Bloomberg does not guarantee the
timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of any data or information relating to
the ETF.

Risk tolerance measures the degree of uncertainty that an investor can handle
regarding fluctuations in the value of their portfolio. The amount of risk
associated with any particular investment depends largely on your own personal
circumstances including your time horizon, liquidity needs, portfolio size,
income, investment knowledge and attitude toward price fluctuations. Investors
should consult their financial advisor before making a decision as to whether
this Fund is a suitable investment for them. 

Distribution yields are calculated by using the most recent regular
distribution, or expected distribution, (which may be based on income,
dividends, return of capital, and option premiums, as applicable) and excluding
additional year end distributions, and special reinvested distributions
annualized for frequency, divided by current net asset value (NAV). The yield
calculation does not include reinvested distributions. Distributions are not
guaranteed, may fluctuate and are subject to change and/ or elimination.
Distribution rates may change without notice (up or down) depending on market
conditions and NAV fluctuations. The payment of distributions should not be
confused with the BMO ETF’s performance, rate of return or yield. If
distributions paid by a BMO ETF are greater than the performance of the
investment fund, your original investment will shrink. Distributions paid as
a result of capital gains realized by a BMO ETF, and income and dividends earned
by a BMO ETF, are taxable in your hands in the year they are paid. Your adjusted
cost base will be reduced by the amount of any returns of capital. If your
adjusted cost base goes below zero, you will have to pay capital gains tax on
the amount below zero. 

Cash distributions, if any, on units of a BMO ETF (other than accumulating units
or units subject to a distribution reinvestment plan) are expected to be paid
primarily out of dividends or distributions, and other income or gains, received
by the BMO ETF less the expenses of the BMO ETF, but may also consist of
non-taxable amounts including returns of capital, which may be paid in the
manager’s sole discretion. To the extent that the expenses of a BMO ETF exceed
the income generated by such BMO ETF in any given month, quarter, or year, as
the case may be, it is not expected that a monthly, quarterly, or annual
distribution will be paid. Distributions, if any, in respect of the accumulating
units of BMO Short Corporate Bond Index ETF, BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF,
BMO Short Provincial Bond Index ETF, BMO Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF and BMO Ultra
Short-Term US Bond ETF will be automatically reinvested in additional
accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF. Following each distribution, the
number of accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF will be immediately
consolidated so that the number of outstanding accumulating units of the
applicable BMO ETF will be the same as the number of outstanding accumulating
units before the distribution. Non-resident unitholders may have the number of
securities reduced due to withholding tax. Certain BMO ETFs have adopted
a distribution reinvestment plan, which provides that a unitholder may elect to
automatically reinvest all cash distributions paid on units held by that
unitholder in additional units of the applicable BMO ETF in accordance with the
terms of the distribution reinvestment plan. For further information, see the
distribution policy in the BMO ETFs’ prospectus.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments
in BMO ETFs and ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds. Please read the ETF facts or
prospectus of the relevant BMO ETF or ETF Series before investing. The indicated
rates of return are the historical compounded total returns including changes in
share or unit value and the reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and
do not take into account the sales, redemption, distribution, optional charges
or income tax payable by the unitholder that would have reduced returns BMO ETFs
and ETF Series are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past
performance may not be repeated.

For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs or ETF Series of the
BMO Mutual Funds, please see the specific risks set out in the prospectus. BMO
ETFs and ETF Series trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade
at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss.
Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and/ or elimination. 

BMO ETFs are managed by BMO Asset Management Inc., which is an investment fund
manager and a portfolio manager, and a separate legal entity from Bank of
Montreal. ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds are managed by BMO Investments
Inc., which is an investment fund manager and a separate legal entity from Bank
of Montreal.

“BMO (M-bar roundel symbol)” is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used
under license.

Disclaimer



Disclosures

BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management
Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate. 

Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking
statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They
involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based
on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance
that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are
cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection
with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the
areas of risk described in the most recent prospectus. 

The reports on this website are for information purposes. The information
contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or
legal advice to any party. Investments should be evaluated relative to the
individual’s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained
with respect to any circumstance.

The Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates (“SPDJI”),
and has been licensed for use by the Manager. S&P®, S&P 500®, US 500, The 500,
iBoxx®, iTraxx® and CDX® are trademarks of S&P Global, Inc. or its affiliates
(“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings
LLC (“Dow Jones”), and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and
sublicensed for certain purposes by the Manager. The ETF is not sponsored,
endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective
affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the
advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for
any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the Index.

Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. (which with its affiliates is
referred to as the “Corporations”) and is licensed for use by the Manager. The
ETF has not been passed on by the Corporations as to their legality or
suitability. The ETF is not issued, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the
Corporations. The Corporations make no warranties and bear no liability with
respect to the ETF.

The ETF referred to herein is not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by MSCI and
MSCI bears no liability with respect to the ETF or any index on which such ETF
is based. The ETF’s prospectus contains a more detailed description of the
limited relationship MSCI has with the Manager and any related ETF.

Solactive AG (“Solactive”) is the licensor of Solactive Index. The ETF that is
based on the Solactive Index is not sponsored, endorsed, promoted or sold by
Solactive in any way and Solactive makes no express or implied representation,
guarantee or assurance with regard to: (a) the advisability in investing in the
ETF; (b) the quality, accuracy and/ or completeness of the Solactive Index; and/
or © the results obtained or to be obtained by any person or entity from the use
of the Solactive Index. Solactive reserves the right to change the methods of
calculation or publication with respect to the Solactive Index. Solactive shall
not be liable for any damages suffered or incurred as a result of the use (or
inability to use) of the Solactive Index.

The ETF is not in any way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by, FTSE Global
Debt Capital Markets Inc. (“FTSE Canada”) or Frank Russell Company (“Russell”)
(together the “Licensor Parties”). The Licensor Parties make no claim,
prediction, warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly,
either as to (i) the results to be obtained from the use of the FTSE Canada
Index(es) or the Russell Index(es), (ii) and/ or the figure at which the said
FTSE Canada Index(es) or Russell Index(es) stands at any particular time on any
particular day or otherwise, or (iii) the suitability of the FTSE Canada
Index(es) and/ or the Russell Index(es) for the purpose to which it is being put
in connection with the ETF mentioned herein. The FTSE Canada Index(es) is/ are
compiled and calculated by and all copyright in the Index values and constituent
list vests in FTSE Canada. The Russell Index(es) is/ are calculated by Russell
or its agent. The Licensor Parties shall not be liable (whether in negligence or
otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index and the Licensor Parties
shall not be under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein.
“Russell®” is a trademark of Frank Russell Company.

“BLOOMBERG®” and the Bloomberg Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P.
and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the
administrator of the Index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed
for use for certain purposes by BMO Asset Management Inc. (the “Licensee”).
Bloomberg is not affiliated with the Licensee, and Bloomberg does not approve,
endorse, review, or recommend the ETF. Bloomberg does not guarantee the
timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of any data or information relating to
the ETF.

Risk tolerance measures the degree of uncertainty that an investor can handle
regarding fluctuations in the value of their portfolio. The amount of risk
associated with any particular investment depends largely on your own personal
circumstances including your time horizon, liquidity needs, portfolio size,
income, investment knowledge and attitude toward price fluctuations. Investors
should consult their financial advisor before making a decision as to whether
this Fund is a suitable investment for them. 

Distribution yields are calculated by using the most recent regular
distribution, or expected distribution, (which may be based on income,
dividends, return of capital, and option premiums, as applicable) and excluding
additional year end distributions, and special reinvested distributions
annualized for frequency, divided by current net asset value (NAV). The yield
calculation does not include reinvested distributions. Distributions are not
guaranteed, may fluctuate and are subject to change and/ or elimination.
Distribution rates may change without notice (up or down) depending on market
conditions and NAV fluctuations. The payment of distributions should not be
confused with the BMO ETF’s performance, rate of return or yield. If
distributions paid by a BMO ETF are greater than the performance of the
investment fund, your original investment will shrink. Distributions paid as
a result of capital gains realized by a BMO ETF, and income and dividends earned
by a BMO ETF, are taxable in your hands in the year they are paid. Your adjusted
cost base will be reduced by the amount of any returns of capital. If your
adjusted cost base goes below zero, you will have to pay capital gains tax on
the amount below zero. 

Cash distributions, if any, on units of a BMO ETF (other than accumulating units
or units subject to a distribution reinvestment plan) are expected to be paid
primarily out of dividends or distributions, and other income or gains, received
by the BMO ETF less the expenses of the BMO ETF, but may also consist of
non-taxable amounts including returns of capital, which may be paid in the
manager’s sole discretion. To the extent that the expenses of a BMO ETF exceed
the income generated by such BMO ETF in any given month, quarter, or year, as
the case may be, it is not expected that a monthly, quarterly, or annual
distribution will be paid. Distributions, if any, in respect of the accumulating
units of BMO Short Corporate Bond Index ETF, BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF,
BMO Short Provincial Bond Index ETF, BMO Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF and BMO Ultra
Short-Term US Bond ETF will be automatically reinvested in additional
accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF. Following each distribution, the
number of accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF will be immediately
consolidated so that the number of outstanding accumulating units of the
applicable BMO ETF will be the same as the number of outstanding accumulating
units before the distribution. Non-resident unitholders may have the number of
securities reduced due to withholding tax. Certain BMO ETFs have adopted
a distribution reinvestment plan, which provides that a unitholder may elect to
automatically reinvest all cash distributions paid on units held by that
unitholder in additional units of the applicable BMO ETF in accordance with the
terms of the distribution reinvestment plan. For further information, see the
distribution policy in the BMO ETFs’ prospectus.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments
in BMO ETFs and ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds. Please read the ETF facts or
prospectus of the relevant BMO ETF or ETF Series before investing. The indicated
rates of return are the historical compounded total returns including changes in
share or unit value and the reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and
do not take into account the sales, redemption, distribution, optional charges
or income tax payable by the unitholder that would have reduced returns BMO ETFs
and ETF Series are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past
performance may not be repeated.

For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs or ETF Series of the
BMO Mutual Funds, please see the specific risks set out in the prospectus. BMO
ETFs and ETF Series trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade
at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss.
Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and/ or elimination. 

BMO ETFs are managed by BMO Asset Management Inc., which is an investment fund
manager and a portfolio manager, and a separate legal entity from Bank of
Montreal. ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds are managed by BMO Investments
Inc., which is an investment fund manager and a separate legal entity from Bank
of Montreal.

“BMO (M-bar roundel symbol)” is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used
under license.



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