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TOBY RICE: EQT CONSIDERS OWN EAST COAST LNG [WATCH]

EQT President and CEO Toby Rice told Hart Energy in an exclusive interview at
CERAWeek by S&P Global that the company has been considering its own LNG
projects.

Chris
Mathews
Hart Energy
Fri, 03/17/2023 - 05:00 AM
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Toby Rice
Listen to this article 9:28

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inconsistencies in pronunciation, sentiment and tone.

There's been a lot of talk this week about the importance of U.S. natural gas in
reducing GHG emissions and providing energy security to buyers in Europe and
Asia, so we are lucky to be talking with EQT, one of the largest producers of
natural gas in North America. I'm Chris Matthews, senior editor of shale and A&D
at Hart Energy, and this is your Hart Energy Live exclusive interview with Toby
Rice, CEO of EQT.

Chris Mathews, senior editor of shale and A&D, Hart Energy: My first question is
just, can you give us your outlook on where you think pricing is going to go?

Toby Rice, president and CEO, EQT Corp.: Yeah, certainly. The volatility we
experienced in '22, I think it's a different world. Simply put, what happened in
'23—weather did not show up. That lack of weather destroyed about 500 Bcf of
demand. When we think about that on a Bcf per day, it was about 12 Bcf a day of
demand that we lost, 10 Bcf a day that came from lack of weather and the other
two Bcf a day came from Freeport LNG being offline.

Well, Freeport LNG is back online, and we think that the low prices that we're
seeing right now will cause operators to respond in lower activity levels. We're
already seeing that. So allies are focused on those activity reductions, and
that should lead to a more balanced gas market in the second half of this year.
You know, long term, ‘22 really just made us even more bullish… on natural gas
long-term. When we think about pricing, we think about long term. “What is the
cost of supply going to be?” We believe we can put natural gas on the doorstep
of Europe for cost of $12, and that would apply a $4 gas price here in the
United States. You know, that's a really amazing situation, not only for
industry, but for society in general. Europeans would be thrilled to be getting
their energy prices at $12. You know, they were paying north of $80 in ’22. $12
energy for Europeans, they'd be doing back flips. We'd be really happy to do
that for them. And $4 gas price here in the United States, Americans would be
ecstatic. It's lower than the 20-year average price of $4.50.

And at that price structure, our industry, the people that will be
building—drilling the wells, building the pipelines and the LNG facilities—will
be able to make modest returns. And we think that's a sustainable, profitable
solution that's going to be value-creating for society. Now, for us to be able
to make that happen and get to that price structure, we need to ensure that we
have a free market and that the low cost supply can move to the demand. But
unfortunately, to make that happen, we need to have more pipelines and more LNG
facilities built. And the key to making that happen is going to be more permit
reform to ensure that the market dynamics can take place, and so we can have a
free market with better permit reform.

CM: I think I've heard some cautious optimism around these halls so far this
week, but curious what you think is going to happen on permitting reform.

TR: Permit reform is inevitable. You know, one thing that's clear is the world's
demand for energy is not going to decrease. And why is that is because energy is
the key to human progress. Full stop. People need energy to improve their
quality of lives. We've seen how critical that is, and we've seen the critical
impacts—if countries do not have their energy security, look at what happened in
Europe. People want to avoid that from happening. Energy demand is going to be
there. The key is going to be can we build the infrastructure to meet that
demand? We're either going to be able to be proactive and take advantage of the
current market as we see it right now—demand is going to continue to go up—and
be proactive and pass effective legislation that allows us to get this pipeline
infrastructure built, or people will realize that this industry and our energy
system as a whole is running at max capacity because of our inability to get
pipeline infrastructure built and other energy infrastructure built. You look at
the EIA came out and said how much pipeline we got built this past year was the
lowest level of pipelines, interstate pipelines built since 1995. Now, to put
that in perspective, we built 3% of the pipelines that we built compared to
2017, just five years ago. Clearly, it shows the issue, and if we don't correct
this right now, we're one unforeseen event away from having a major issue. We
saw the issues that happened when Colonial Pipeline went down. You saw the
issues what happened when Uri went down. We don't know what it's going to be,
but there will be some type of event that we can't predict. We need to be
prepared for that and to be prepared for that, we need to build in that excess
capacity. The key to that—building more pipelines and energy infrastructure. And
the key to that is pipeline reform. So we have an opportunity to recognize the
importance and the need to get this done proactively.

CM: You've talked a lot about LNG and unleashing U.S. LNG, of course. Curious if
you can give us any insights into whether you're continuing to have discussions
with LNG exporters and in terms of supplying gas to those facilities?

TR: Yes, we've certainly been big champions on our energy transition plan for
the world—which is transitioning the world from coal to gas. And we're going to
do that in the form of ramping production here in the United States, using that
production to liquefy this resource and ship it overseas to replace foreign
coal, which is the biggest source of emissions on the planet. We have the
resource potential in the United States to increase production over 50%. That
would be an incremental 50 Bcf a day of energy that we could put on the world
stage to replace foreign coal. Every Bcf a day that we could put on the water to
replace foreign coal would save over 30 million tons. That's the math. When you
add all that up, the emissions reduction potential of unleashing U.S. LNG is
equivalent to electrifying every vehicle in the country, putting solar panels on
every house and also doubling U.S. wind capacity, combined. It's absolutely
massive. That's why we call it the biggest green initiative on the planet.

When we talk about the other benefit, the other thing we learned in ‘22, it's
not just about the environment, it's about energy security. And without energy
security, you cannot transition. And the key to energy security is American
natural gas, specifically U.S. LNG. From an energy security perspective, this
has really gotten a lot people really excited—60 Bcf a day of gas on the world
stage. People don't really know what that is, but 60 Bcf a day to make that
relevant is the energy equivalent of adding 10 million barrels a day of clean
energy to the world. That's like the United States… ha[ving] the ability to add
Saudi Arabia's worth of energy to the world stage. It's going to be a
decarbonizing force and provide a massive energy security blanket to the world.
That's the prize that we're playing for—the biggest green initiative on the
planet and the biggest energy security blanket for the world and the key to low
prices here in America. It's an amazing prize and we've really been excited
about moving the ball forward. Right now, some of the steps we can do in the
meantime is take advantage of some of the Gulf Coast capacity. We ship about 25%
of our volumes to the Gulf Coast. It's about a little bit over a Bcf a day, and
now we're working to convert that capacity we have to the Gulf Coast to
international exposure by talking to some of the LNG facilities down there.

CM: Oh, I see. What's happening with regards to LNG potential on the East Coast?
I know there had been considerations at some point in looking at Penn[sylvania]
LNG. I'm curious if you have ever considered taking your own destiny into your
own hands, so to speak, and constructing or developing your own LNG export
project. Is that something you could see EQT doing in the future?

TR: That’s something that we're looking at. LNG is going to be the tie that
lifts all ships in America when it comes to natural gas production. But the
prize for EQT really is to unlock sustainable growth and the ability for us to
not just be in maintenance mode, but be able to invest in those high
rate-of-return drilling projects that are sort of sitting, waiting for
sustainable demand to be created. We can create that sustainable demand if we
can bring LNG to the East Coast. Now, that is a very long put, and I understand
that there's a lot of things that need to take place, but we are exploring it
because the prize is so massive. East Coast LNG would be transformative, not
only to EQT, but to the United States and the rest of the world.

You know, one of the things that's happened recently that's been constructive is
the state of Pennsylvania has passed a law to establish a Philly LNG task force.
This group is mandated to go in and explore how we can bring LNG to the East
Coast. That would be amazing. And equally as important, I was very encouraged to
get a call from the governor a few weeks ago appointing EQT and myself to the
Philly LNG task force. So, it's a long put, there's a lot of things that need to
line up, but we, EQT and myself, we are in the room and we'll be looking for
ways to connect the dots and set the table for a potential East Coast LNG
project. It's down the road, but super transformative and we will definitely
give it a serious amount of attention.

CM: Thanks so much for taking the time to speak with us.

Learn more about EQT online at hartenergy.com.

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