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Friday, February 2, 2024
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Politics|Trump’s Tariffs Hurt U.S. Jobs but Swayed American Voters, Study Says
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TRUMP’S TARIFFS HURT U.S. JOBS BUT SWAYED AMERICAN VOTERS, STUDY SAYS
New research finds that former President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs did not bring
back U.S. jobs, but voters appeared to reward him for the levies anyway.
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American farmers who exported soybeans, cotton and sorghum to China were hit
particularly hard by Beijing’s decision to impose retaliatory
tariffs.Credit...Rory Doyle for The New York Times
By Ana Swanson
Ana Swanson has covered trade policy under the Trump and Biden administrations.
Feb. 2, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET
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The sweeping tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on China and
other American trading partners were simultaneously a political success and an
economic failure, a new study suggests. That’s because the levies won over
voters for the Republican Party even though they did not bring back jobs.
The nonpartisan working paper examines monthly data on U.S. employment by
industry to find that the tariffs that Mr. Trump placed on foreign metals,
washing machines and an array of goods from China starting in 2018 neither
raised nor lowered the overall number of jobs in the affected industries.
But the tariffs did incite other countries to impose their own retaliatory
tariffs on American products, making them more expensive to sell overseas, and
those levies had a negative effect on American jobs, the paper finds. That was
particularly true in agriculture: Farmers who exported soybeans, cotton and
sorghum to China were hit by Beijing’s decision to raise tariffs on those
products to as much as 25 percent.
The Trump administration aimed to offset those losses by offering financial
support for farmers, ultimately giving out $23 billion in 2018 and 2019. But
those funds were distributed unevenly, a government assessment found, and the
economists say those subsidies only partially mitigated the harm that had been
caused by the tariffs.
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The findings contradict Mr. Trump’s claims that his tariffs helped to reverse
some of the damage done by competition from China and bring back American
manufacturing jobs that had gone overseas. The economists conclude that the
aggregate effect on U.S. jobs of the three measures — the original tariffs,
retaliatory tariffs and subsidies granted to farmers — were “at best a wash, and
it may have been mildly negative.”
“Certainly you can reject the hypothesis that this tariff policy was very
successful at bringing back jobs to those industries that got a lot of exposure
to that tariff war,” one of the study authors, David Dorn of the University of
Zurich, said in an interview.
Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based
in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade. More about Ana
Swanson
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