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Ship constructing Walney extension of the offshore wind farm in the Irish Sea.
Credit: Rob Arnold / Alamy Stock Photo.
RENEWABLES
8 July 2022 14:44
ANALYSIS: RECORD-LOW PRICE FOR UK OFFSHORE WIND IS NINE TIMES CHEAPER THAN GAS
*
*
*
*
*
SIMON EVANS
07.08.22
SIMON EVANS
08.07.2022 | 2:44pm
RenewablesAnalysis: Record-low price for UK offshore wind is nine times cheaper
than gas
*
*
*
*
A UK government auction has secured a record 11 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable
energy capacity that will generate electricity nine times more cheaply than
current gas prices.
The projects are all due to start operating within the next five years up to
2026/27 and have agreed to generate electricity for an average price of £48 per
megawatt hour (MWh) in today’s money. This is nine times cheaper than the
£446/MWh current cost of running gas-fired power stations.
(Update 24/08/2022: The article was updated with the latest power prices, which
have risen significantly.)
Most of the new capacity – some 7GW – will be offshore wind. Notably, for the
first time, these projects were cheaper than the 1.5GW of onshore wind or 2.2GW
of solar.
Once the pre-approved projects are built, Carbon Brief estimates they will
generate 45 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year, enough to meet around
14% of current UK demand.
Analysts said they would also save consumers an estimated £1.5bn per year in the
late 2020s and cut annual average bills by £58, with most of the projects
effectively subsidy-free.
This is the UK’s fourth biannual “contracts for difference” (CfD) auction round
(AR4). As well as seeing record-low prices, with 11GW of capacity secured, it is
also by far the largest.
The first round in 2015 awarded contracts to 2GW of capacity. This rose to 3GW
in the 2017 second round, where offshore wind became cheaper than new gas
plants.
The 2019 third round contracted 6GW of capacity, including the first
subsidy-free offshore windfarms, with prices below those expected on the open
market.
Future rounds will take place every year.
AR4 AUCTION RESULTS
The UK government has committed to getting 95% of the country’s electricity from
low-carbon sources by 2030 and to fully decarbonise the grid by 2035. It is also
aiming for “up to” 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, including “up to” 5GW from
floating offshore schemes.
CfD auctions for new renewable energy capacity are the UK’s primary route for
achieving these targets. Auctions have been held every two years since 2015, but
will now be held annually.
Glossary
Contracts for Difference: The new subsidy scheme to support investments in
low-carbon electricity generation. Schemes are paid a fixed "strike price" for
each unit of electricity they produce, giving investors the promise of steady
returns. If wholesale electricity prices are below the strike price, contracted
schemes receive the difference as a top-up payment. If prices rise above the
strike price, they must pay back the difference.
Close
Contracts for Difference: The new subsidy scheme to support investments in
low-carbon electricity generation. Schemes are paid a fixed "strike price" for
each unit of electricity they produce, giving investors the promise of steady
returns.… Read More
Under the contracts, projects agree to generate electricity for a “strike price”
that is fixed in real terms, meaning it is index-linked to inflation. The
results are usually reported in 2012 prices.
Once projects have been built, the money they earn from generating electricity
is compared with a market reference price. If this is lower than the strike
price, the project receives a subsidy to make up the difference. When prices are
higher, the project must pay back the extra money.
Amid a global energy crisis, current market prices are extremely high, due to
the soaring cost of gas. They are expected to remain elevated for a number of
years.
As a result, the bulk of this week’s auction winners are expected to pay back to
consumers for much of their lives, making them effectively subsidy-free. (Though
there is disagreement over exactly what the term “subsidy free” means.)
The contracts are awarded in a reverse auction, where the lowest bid wins. The
auction is divided into various “pots”, where contracts are reserved for
different groups of technologies.
This system of “pots” is designed to allow emerging technologies to win
contracts even though they may be more expensive than established options. This
week’s auction is the first since 2015 to have included “pot 1” established
technologies, which covers onshore wind and solar.
The auction results for each technology are shown in the table below, with
columns showing the year the projects are due to start operating. In total, some
93 projects with a capacity of 10.8GW won contracts, at an average price of
£41/MWh in 2012 prices (£48/MWh in today’s money).
Offshore wind was the cheapest and most significant technology, with 7.0GW of
new capacity winning contracts at a record-low price of £37/MWh in 2012 prices
(£44/MWh in current money).
Some 2.2GW of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £46/MWh
(£55/MWh today), along with 0.9GW of onshore wind at £42/MWh (£50/MWh today) and
another 0.6GW of “remote island wind” at £46/MWh (£55/MWh today).
This auction round was the largest to date by far, securing roughly twice as
much capacity as the third round and three times as much as the second, as shown
in the chart below. It was also the joint cheapest, with a capacity-weighted
average price of £41/MWh in 2012 prices.
Left axis and columns: Capacity secured in each of the four CfD auctions to
date, by technology type (MW). Right axis and line: Weighted average strike
price in each auction (£/MWh in 2012 prices). Source: CfD auction results and
Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
The 10.8GW of capacity in total can be expected to generate around 45TWh of
electricity, around 14% of current UK generation and enough to cover the usage
of over half or UK homes – or all the additional supply needed to run electric
vehicles by the end of the decade.
This 45TWh of new renewable generation, which is due to be up and running in
five years, can be compared with the roughly 25TWh of electricity that will be
produced by the Hinkley C new nuclear plant in Somerset. Hinkley C has a CfD for
£92.50/MWh in 2012 prices (£110/MWh today) and is due to start operating 10
years after its contract was awarded in 2016.
Notably, a 30 megawatt (MW) floating offshore wind project secured a contract in
this week’s auction for £87/MWh (£104/MWh). This is well ahead of the cost
reduction trajectory for floating offshore wind, under which it was already
expected to become “subsidy free by 2030”.
The still-nascent technology is seen as a key to unlocking the potential of the
sector because it can be used in deeper water, further from shore, where wind
speeds are more consistent. It can also be used in countries, such as Japan,
that are surrounded by deep ocean.
NINE TIMES CHEAPER THAN GAS
The prices secured in this week’s auction are the lowest ever, with the £37/MWh
for offshore wind in 2012 prices falling below the previous record of
£39.65/MWh.
The prices for onshore wind and solar were also lower than in previous auction
rounds.
Moreover, the projects are all around nine times cheaper than the current price
of electricity generated in gas-fired power stations, as shown in the chart
below.
This price for gas reflects the cost of running existing power plants – buying
fuel and permits to emit carbon dioxide – whereas the CfD prices are for
building entirely new projects from scratch.
Government estimates of the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) from various
technologies (solid lines) versus CfD strike prices and actual power prices
(dashed lines). Figures are all in £(2021) per megawatt hour (MWh) of
electricity, plotted against the year of delivery, for example the lowest figure
is £44/MWh for offshore wind CfD projects due to start operating in 2026/27.
Source: Carbon Brief analysis of government cost projections published in 2010,
2011, 2011, 2013, 2016 and 2020 and CfD auction results from 2015, 2017, 2019
and 2022, with all prices adjusted to £2021 using the Treasury deflator. Actual
power prices are weekly, monthly or yearly average day-ahead prices from
Nordpool. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
The record-low prices were unexpected as commodity price inflation is thought to
have increased the cost of installing wind and solar projects this year. With
CfD auctions due to be held annually, there is already speculation about whether
there could be higher prices next year.
With strike prices so far below the levels seen in the open market and with high
gas prices now expected to persist for years, the projects secured in this
week’s auction are due to pay back considerable sums to consumers.
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According to Thomas Edwards, modeller at consultancy Cornwall Insight, AR4
projects would pay back £1.5bn a year towards the end of the 2020s, based on
their latest price forecasts.
He tells Carbon Brief the projects “will pay back to consumers for much of their
lives”.
Similarly, Nathan Bennett, head of public affairs for industry group Renewable
UK, tweeted that the schemes would lower average household energy bills by £58 a
year.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a thinktank, says the projects would
save households £100 a year, if the current extremely high market prices
persisted. In this scenario, it says savings from current and future CfD
projects could reach £500 per household.
The government’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has estimated that the
cost of integrating variable wind and solar into the energy system is around
£10/MWh when the generation mix is 50-65% renewable, with the figure rising to
£25-30/MWh at 75-90% renewables.
National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO), which manages the grid for
Great Britain, is working towards being able to operate a stable and secure grid
without any fossil fuel power plants for hours at a time by 2025 – and all of
the time by 2035.
In addition to the announcement of the CfD auction results, this week also saw
the launch of plans for investment of £54bn in upgrading the country’s
electricity grid to absorb ever-increasing output from low-carbon technologies,
in particular offshore wind.
China Briefing September 21: New power-market rules; 1,000GW of solar ‘by 2026’;
Impact of ‘EV wars’
China energy
|
21.09.23
Q&A: How China is using nuclear power to reduce its carbon emissions
China energy
|
14.08.23
China Briefing 13 July 2023: Emissions cap; Heat and floods; New climate talks;
Gallium and germanium restrictions; Shipping carbon levy
China energy
|
13.07.23
China Briefing 29 June 2023: China-German climate deal; Coal vs clean;
Record-breaking heatwave; Revving EVs
China energy
|
29.06.23
Sharelines from this story
* Analysis: Record-low price for UK offshore wind is four times cheaper than
gas
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GUEST POST: DOES RENEWABLE ENERGY THREATEN EFFORTS TO CONSERVE BIODIVERSITY ON
LAND?
Guest posts | 3.02.2022
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