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HERE'S HOW WE CAN PREPARE FOR A TOUGHER RECESSION 

Garrett Baldwin

 

If you can get past the typically dry, dense bureaucrat-ese, there was a stunner
in the most recent FOMC minutes: the Fed basically admitted the economy isn't as
strong as we've been led to believe. The summary predicted "a mild recession
starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years."


I know, I know - people hate it when we say the "R-word" out loud, but we've got
to get to grips with the situation so we can have the advantage.


As savvy investors, we've got to reevaluate previous assumptions and take steps
to prepare for the  potential impact of a "mild recession." 


I've invested through crisis after crisis in my years in finance, and I think we
should prepare for what could be a more painful downturn than the Fed is
"expecting" here…


It all starts with this…

 

HERE'S WHAT "THE R-WORD" REALLY MEANS


The Econ 101 definition of a recession is: "an extended period of reduced
economic output and rising unemployment rates, typically marked by two
consecutive quarters of contraction."


Only two years ago, "experts" believed inflation would be transitory; recession
was of little concern. 


That was then, this is now. The Fed will probably never come out and say "Our
policies and actions have caused or will cause a recession," but that slowing
down and cooling off of the economy has actually been their intention this
entire time. They aimed to prevent the economy from overheating, striving for a
so-called "soft landing." 


But I think we'd be wise to prepare for a downturn that could be more painful
than the Fed is telegraphing here.


LIKE CLOCKWORK : IN UNCERTAIN TIMES, LEARN HOW TO LEVERAGE A PATTERN THAT'S HIT
94 OUT OF 95 TIMES. READ MORE…


When the United States government boosts spending or sells oil, it provides a
cushion for the economy. Despite struggling sectors, an overall rise in nominal
amounts suggests that we aren't technically in a recession just yet. But what
factors moving forward could trigger a downturn? Government spending, import and
export activities, and consumer spending all play a part.


As we look at the potential triggers for a recession, we must consider consumer
spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of the economy. A decline in
consumer activity could serve as the primary catalyst for a more severe economic
downturn. 


And with economic indicators becoming increasingly unpredictable, it's time to
consider steady trading approaches that emphasize stability over quick gains. 


One way I like is covered calls - a strategy even newly minted traders can
master. You write an option for every 100 shares of stock you own, then pocket
the premium instantly. If you roll this over each month, it's like steady
income. Put-selling is a more advanced strategy that also puts cash in your
pocket, with the added bonus of the potential to own great stocks at cheap
prices.


I know of an even better way to try for a stable trading strategy, the "Two-Way
Trade Appointment." It's based on an extremely consistent pattern - one that's
hit 94 out of 95 times. That's a big claim, I know, but when you see how it
works I think you'll agree. Take a look…

 



 





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