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WHAT COULD HARRIS, TRUMP DO FOR YOUR FINANCES? ASK US YOUR QUESTIONS.


POST ECONOMICS REPORTERS JEFF STEIN AND JACOB BOGAGE WILL ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS
DURING A LIVE CHAT ON THURSDAY AT 12 P.M. EASTERN TIME.

By Jeff Stein
, 
Jacob Bogage
and 
Alexandra Pannoni
October 24, 2024 at 12:00 p.m. EDT

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The economy and inflation stand out as the most important issues to remaining
uncommitted voters in swing states, according to a new Washington Post-Schar
School poll. Post economics reporters Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage are answering
your questions now. Send your question in advance through the box above. Your
question may be edited for accuracy and clarity.


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About this live chat
The economy and inflation stand out as the most important issues to remaining
uncommitted voters in swing states, according to a new Washington Post-Schar
School poll. Post economics reporters Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage are answering
your questions now. Send your question in advance through the box above. Your
question may be edited for accuracy and clarity.
About this live chat
The economy and inflation stand out as the most important issues to remaining
uncommitted voters in swing states, according to a new Washington Post-Schar
School poll. Post economics reporters Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage are answering
your questions now. Send your question in advance through the box above. Your
question may be edited for accuracy and clarity.
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Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:00 a.m.
Link

Hi folks! I’m Jacob Bogage, The Post’s congressional economic correspondent.
That means I cover anything with a dollar sign in front of it in Congress:
taxes, spending, trade, regulation, the social safety net and more.

I’m a college football sicko and Baltimore Orioles fan (but I’ll save those for
a different live chat). I’m answering your questions today while hanging out
with my dog, Cash. If the editors let me, I’ll try to post a picture of him
later. Thanks for hanging out with us today, and all your smart questions.


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Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:00 a.m.
Link

I got permission to add a photo of Cash. He's a 6-year-old mutt -- mostly Lab,
some other breeds in there, too. He's a knucklehead, but he's my knucklehead.


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Independent Fed
Guest


9:00 a.m.
Link
What is the risk to our economy, retirement savings, and Social Security if
Trump eliminates or weakens the independent Fed?


Jeff Stein


7:52 a.m.

Great question. It’s a little hard to parse exactly what Trump’s plans for the
Fed are, but it’s clear that he believes he at a minimum should have a role in
recommending interest rate hikes or cuts. The scenario many economists are
particularly worried about is if Trump tries to install an unqualified crony as
Fed chair. Since the 1970s, the Fed has strived to make its decisions free of
political interference; putting a Trump ally in charge would risk that the Fed
would juice the economy in order to boost his popularity, potentially at the
expense to the U.S. economy.

The impact to retirement savings is harder to say – Trump’s plan to cut taxes on
Social Security payments would speed up the date by which the Social Security
trust fund is exhausted, but that is not responsive to your question about the
Fed!


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Alexandra Pannoni

Talent & Community Editor
9:01 a.m.
Link

It’s so great to have Jacob and Jeff here today to take your questions on the
presidential candidates’ economic plans. To send them a question, use the “Ask a
question” box at the top of this chat. To reply to Jacob and Jeff’s answers, use
the “reply” button.

Ask away!


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Jeff Stein


9:02 a.m.
Link
‘Off the charts’: How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies

Trump's tariff plans could lead to economic isolation, affecting global markets
and increasing costs for American consumers.
FULL STORY
Howdy! Jeff Stein here, White House economics reporter for The Washington Post.
I love economic policy and think it doesn’t get discussed nearly enough in
presidential elections, but then again I suppose every reporter feels this way
about the topic he or she covers.

Check out my most recent story, on Trump’s tariffs, here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/16/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/


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JU

The debt
Judith


9:04 a.m.
Link
How can America reign in the debt, give the tax breaks both candidates talk
about, and maintain vital services. Will taxing the 1% actually make much
difference?


Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:04 a.m.

Love this question. I am turning into a debt geek, as my editor can attest. I
hate to do this, but I have to answer your question with a question: How much do
you want to raise taxes on the uber wealthy? Do you want to tax just income or
also wealth?

If we’re talking about taxing the “1%” at the rate Vice President Kamala Harris
is talking about, that alone is not enough to get debt under control, especially
with Harris’s other spending priorities.

But it’s important to not look at taxes and debt in a vacuum. Taxes are one
lever to stimulate or restrain economic growth. We shouldn’t look at national
debt in isolation – but rather study how much debt the U.S. carries as a
proportion of GDP as an important indicator. And not all debt is created equal.


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PP

Housing
Peter P


9:06 a.m.
Link
Harris says that she will provide funds for families buying a first home. I like
the idea, but how will putting more people into the housing market not raise
home prices? Since this is essentially a handout to home developers, will that
alone spur more housing development? If so, where? Might that itself become a
new problem?


Jeff Stein


9:06 a.m.

Yes, most economists I have interviewed agree that providing a $25K subsidy to
every first-time homebuyer would increase prices. The Harris people defend this
plan by emphasizing they are simultaneously proposing to massively increase
housing SUPPLY, and argue that the subsidy is a necessary bridge to help
homebuyers until that supply gets built.

Still, I think most experts, even Democratic ones, would say that the plan seems
primarily political – a clear appeal to voters. Wonks may like “increase supply
through zoning changes” as a solution to our national housing crisis, but it’s a
little rough as a bumper sticker compared to, say, “We will give you $25K to buy
a home.”


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Tariffs
Guest


9:09 a.m.
Link
If Trump is elected, and he enacts the tariffs he’s been talking about, is it
better to purchase a new vehicle before he is in office or on what time frame
would we expect vehicle prices to go up?


Jeff Stein


9:09 a.m.

This is such a hard question to answer in part because we don’t really know what
Trump would actually do. That said, yes, Trump’s tariffs do threaten to raise
car prices – both on imported cars from abroad, because they would face higher
import duties, and for cars ostensibly produced domestically, which depend on
foreign parts. If those foreign parts become more expensive due to the Trump
tariffs, even the price of domestic autos will go up.

It’s really hard to say by how much. As I reported last week, Chris McNally, a n
analyst at Evercore, has estimated that Trump’s 10 percent tariff plan could
cause a more than 20 percent decline in General Motors’ earnings, with slightly
smaller declines for Ford and Stellantis. The reason for that is because
production prices would go up, leading in part to less revenue for the firms but
also higher prices for consumers.

P.S. I am also maybe looking for a new car because my 2011 Impala is falling
apart so if you find a good one feel free to email me @
jeffrey.stein@washpost.com.


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Tax burden of aid to Israel
Guest


9:16 a.m.
Link
How much could I save on my tax bill if the U.S. stopped sending aid to Israel?


Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:16 a.m.

I wouldn’t really call it a “tax burden,” and I’m not going to get into the
discussion of Israel’s military action. But I can answer a question about the
math of Israel aid and foreign aid more generally.

Foreign aid is a miniscule part of federal spending. And Israel is a tiny
fraction of all foreign aid (though Israel is the largest single recipient).
Since 1946, the U.S. has given just more than $300 billion to Israel in both
military and economic aid, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

For context, the U.S. spent $6.75 trillion total in the 2024 fiscal year. So aid
for Israel – over the course of nearly 80 years – is a drop in the bucket.


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JW

Cooling inflation vs. frustration with prices
JW


9:21 a.m.
Link
Even though inflation has gone down, consumers are still frustrated by the high
prices that resulted from inflation. Do either of the candidates’ proposals
offer any solutions for addressing not just inflation, but the higher prices we
have been left with?


Jeff Stein


9:21 a.m.

Not really. Most economists think having prices FALL –especially to pre-pandemic
levels – would be a very bad thing, the type of thing that only happens during
events like the Great Depression, because it would mean economic demand had
completely dissipated and businesses were unable to sell goods to consumers.
Everyone wants pre-2021 prices but the reality is it would be a horrifically
painful process to get there.


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WS

Social security
Will social security still be around for me?


9:25 a.m.
Link
I’m 72. Can I count on Social Security for the rest of my life, say 22 years?


Jeff Stein


9:25 a.m.

Lots of people are very anxious about Social Security, and it makes total sense
– you may have contributed into the system your whole life and counted on these
payments for your retirement, and now it’s unclear what exactly will be
available. Very scary stuff. Thanks for your question.

I wish I could give you a more certain answer, but here is my best shot. Right
now, Social Security’s trust funds are expected to run out of money in 2034,
triggering automatic benefit cuts. That means that in 2035 – this would put you
at 83 – you’d start only receiving 77 percent of your benefits, under current
projections. Most lawmakers I talk to believe that if this were to happen,
Congress would step in and backfill Social Security benefits from the Treasury
general account (sorry if this is too in the weeds!), making you and everyone
else whole.

That said, there’s no guarantee that kind of agreement would ever actually be
reached. And Trump’s plan to reduce taxes on Social Security benefit payments,
to end taxes on overtime pay and tips, to impose tariffs, and to restrict
immigration would almost certainly make the program’s funding challenges even
worse, which would both speed up the date by which benefit cuts start AND reduce
the amount paid, to closer to 67 percent of benefits, said Bobby Kogan, an
economic policy guru at the Center for American Progress, a center-left think
tank.


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EI

Cap on SALT tax deduction
Essentialsaltes in Los Angeles


9:32 a.m.
Link
I believe Trump has mentioned removing the cap his own enacted tax plan imposed
(which had negative effects primarily for residents of 'high tax' 'blue'
states). Has either campaign said anything definitive about any changes to the
state and local tax (SALT) deduction? And what might the consequences be?


Jeff Stein


7:55 a.m.

This is a fun one that many of our readers care a lot about. Trump seems to have
reversed himself on the SALT cap in part to help vulnerable N.Y. Republicans
hang onto their House seats; this is a huge priority for them, despite the fact,
as you point out, that it was the GOP tax law of 2017 that created the cap in
the first place. As for Harris, she has avoided taking a firm position on the
issue, although many top Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Charles E.
Schumer (D-N.Y.), have called for lifting the cap.

I’m guessing here and you can yell at me in a year if I’m wrong but I think it’s
likely we see some pairing back of the cap – maybe raising it to $20K instead of
$10K, or abolishing it for some lower-income taxpayers rather than everyone – in
the big fight over taxes we’re expecting in Congress in 2025. Democrats will be
reluctant to go too far, however, because a lot of economists say upper-income
households would benefit most from repealing the cap.


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Housing (mortgage/rent) costs
Guest


9:37 a.m.
Link
Do the candidates have any plans to do something about reducing rents? Will rent
ever come down?


Jeff Stein


9:37 a.m.

It’s been interesting if heartbreaking for me to watch as housing has become one
of the most important political fights, in a way it definitely was not a few
years ago.

Harris’s plan is long but primarily involves encouraging a change in zoning to
encourage more construction/housing supply, while also providing first-time
homebuyers with a $25K federal subsidy. Most economists I talk to think the
supply changes would help relieve housing prices but worry the $25K federal
subsidy would just lead to higher prices.

Trump’s plan on housing is … very vague. As my colleague Rachel Siegel has
written, Trump has primarily talked about deporting immigrants as a way to free
up housing supply. But as some economists have pointed out, this is quite likely
to instead slow down construction, which could constrict supply and in turn
drive up prices anyway.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/19/housing-construction-harris-supply/
New housing construction slowed as campaigns focus on affordability

Fresh data from the Census Bureau show how housing sits at the center of
policymaking at the federal and local level.
FULL STORY

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JT

Stock market
Jim Thomson


9:39 a.m.
Link
What’s the stock market likely to do in November if Harris wins and if Trump
wins?


Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:29 a.m.

We’ve gotten a bunch of questions in this vein, so I called up Dan Ives, a
leading Wall Street analyst and managing director at Wedbush Securities.

Here’s what Dan said:
“A Trump win in isolation would be negative for tech because of the China
tariffs and how that could potentially get the AI trade relative to the supply
chain. That’s the biggest worry in terms of Trump, how it relates to China and
[semiconductors]. The other issue is that JD Vance is [a] Lina Khan supporter
[for chair of the FTC]. The view is, if Trump gets in, Lina Khan could stay at
the FTC, which would be negative for big tech. Harris would be ultimately net
bullish for big tech. China – a slap on the wrist and wouldn’t be dramatically
more harsh. It would be more positive on the tariff side. And there’s a view
that if Harris gets in, Khan is out at the FTC, which is bullish for big tech.
Now, ultimately, The Street wants to see gridlock. You want to see some red,
some blue in the Beltway. As long as it’s not [a] red sweep, some of the Trump
issues are probably being curtailed. That really is how The Street is viewing
this. Ultimately a red sweep would be the most negative for big tech.”


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Value of U.S. dollar
Guest


9:40 a.m.
Link
How will either candidate’s economic plans affect the value of the U.S. dollar?


Jeff Stein


9:40 a.m.

Trump’s tariff plans would likely push the dollar higher. (In 2018, as Trump
implemented the first several rounds of tariff hikes, the dollar rose more than
10 percent against the Chinese yuan.) That may sound good but Trump has also at
various points said he wanted a weaker dollar, because a strong dollar depresses
U.S. exports.


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SALT deduction restoration?
Guest


9:44 a.m.
Link
Will either candidate restore the full deduction for State and Local Taxes that
has been capped at $10,000?


Jeff Stein


9:44 a.m.

Such a popular question! I think it’s unlikely the FULL deduction gets restored,
but I would expect SOME limited relief – pairing back of the cap as it currently
exists. There’s too much bipartisan pressure from vulnerable front-line House
members, I think, for 2025 to not see at least partial changes to the cap. I do
think we are unlikely to see full restoration because many Democrats believe
doing so would benefit the affluent and many Republicans have no problem with
the cap as it primarily affects Democratic areas. Hope this answers your
question!


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MA

Income taxes
Mary


9:50 a.m.
Link
What changes will be made to the federal tax code for both individuals and
corporations? Specifically, what do Trump and Harris say will happen to the
Trump era tax provisions set to expire next year? What would have to happen for
Congress to adopt the proposals of either candidate?


Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:50 a.m.

Thanks for this question. Let’s talk Trump first. He wants to extend all the
individual tax provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That law cut taxes
across all income brackets, but the largest cut went to the wealthiest
taxpayers. TCJA also reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21
percent. Trump wants to reduce that to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers.

Now for Harris: She wants to extend the TCJA rates for people making less than
$400,000, and let them expire for those making more. But she hasn’t said what
the rates on wealthier folks ought to be. She’s also called for raising the
corporate tax rate to 28 percent.

As for Congress, that’s a stickier question, and it depends on election results.
But let’s assume Congress is divided, for the sake of convenience. A short-term
TCJA extension is not out of the question. And there could be some bipartisan
consensus around tweaks to international tax policy to pay for it.


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MI

Economy
MikeNYK


9:52 a.m.
Link
If Trump’s tariffs are bad, why has Biden/Harris not removed them? Is it
possible that reasonable tariffs could, over time, give valuable protection to
domestic production and allow strategic manufacturing to flourish in the U.S.??


Jeff Stein


9:52 a.m.

I think this is a super fair question and a bit difficult for the White House to
answer. What the administration would say is that the tariffs they’ve kept are
targeted at protecting vital industries that the U.S. wants to protect and see
grow, including – at least for some of them – because they’re viewed as crucial
to our national security. So for instance, Biden has placed tariffs on Chinese
electric vehicles, and maintained protections for U.S. steel. By contrast, Trump
wants an “automatic” tariff on ALL imports – even things that, at least
according to some Democrats, it is not important to make in the U.S., such as
textiles and agricultural products.

All that said, per your point, it is a little awkward for some Democrats to have
denounced Trump’s first term tariffs and then turn around and keep most of them.


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SU

Retirement savings
Susan


9:58 a.m.
Link
My mother believes that during the Biden administration, her retirement savings
have taken a hit due to a bad economy. How will a Trump presidency potentially
help her retirement savings?


Jeff Stein


9:58 a.m.

Hmm. I don't mean to criticize your mother, as my mom taught me better than
that, but she should definitely talk to a financial planner if she believes her
retirement savings are DOWN under the Biden administration. The S&P 500 is up
more than 50 percent and the Dow Jones is up 36 percent since Biden took office.
Accounting for inflation, those are 25 percent and 15 percent increases! So, she
may not be doing her math right.

As per Trump, he has promised to cut taxes on Social Security payments -- a
proposal with mixed impacts that I've discussed elsewhere in the thread. Good
luck! :)


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BL

please stop with foolish topics
Blue lives in red state


10:02 a.m.
Link
Congress controls the federal purse. Not the executive branch. The President may
outline priorities, but Congress distributes federal money. A more realistic
topic would have been how could GOP or Democratic policies affect your finances?
That pointed out, my question: Why has WaPo not addressed the lack of Mr.
Trump's economic policies?


Jacob Bogage

Congressional economics correspondent
9:24 a.m.

If you don’t like foolishness, you’ve come to the wrong chat. I posted a photo
of my dog, for crying out loud!

But to be serious, you raise a good point about congressional spending
authority. I spend most of my days at the Capitol, and I see this in action
every day: the president says something about spending, and lawmakers roll their
eyes.

We have done quite a bit of coverage, though, on Trump’s priorities. Here are
some helpful links:
Trump plans to claim sweeping powers to cancel federal spending
Why Trump’s and Harris’s ‘no tax on tips’ plans may not help tipped workers
Trump would add twice as much to national debt as Harris, study finds
Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says‘
Off the charts’: How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies
Trump, pitching aid for Michigan automakers, insults Detroit
GOP looks the other way as Trump pushes unorthodox trade proposals
Why Trump’s and Harris’s ‘no tax on tips’ plans may not help tipped workers

Exempting tips from taxes could cost the federal government billions, but the
plans championed by Trump and Harris wouldn’t go far for most low-income
workers.
FULL STORY
‘Off the charts’: How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies

Trump's tariff plans could lead to economic isolation, affecting global markets
and increasing costs for American consumers.
FULL STORY
GOP looks the other way as Trump pushes unorthodox trade proposals

The former president touts tariffs as a cure-all, but Republican lawmakers
prefer to characterize the measures as a negotiating tactic.
FULL STORY
Trump plans to claim sweeping powers to cancel federal spending

The former president has laid the groundwork to massively expand executive
authority over the $6 trillion federal budget.
FULL STORY
Trump, pitching aid for Michigan automakers, insults Detroit

The former president is calling for a combination of trade protections and new
tax incentives to bolster U.S. auto production.
FULL STORY
Trump would add twice as much to national debt as Harris, study finds

Former president Donald Trump’s campaign proposals would add nearly twice as
much to the national debt as Vice President Kamala Harris’s would, according to
new research.
FULL STORY
Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts many of Trump’s policies
could hasten the looming depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund.
FULL STORY

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About this live chat
The economy and inflation stand out as the most important issues to remaining
uncommitted voters in swing states, according to a new Washington Post-Schar
School poll. Post economics reporters Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage are answering
your questions now. Send your question in advance through the box above. Your
question may be edited for accuracy and clarity.





Share
By Jeff Stein
Jeff Stein is the White House economics reporter for The Washington Post. He was
a crime reporter for the Syracuse Post-Standard and, in 2014, founded the local
news nonprofit the Ithaca Voice in Upstate New York. He was also a reporter for
Vox.follow on X @jstein_wapo
By Jacob Bogage
Jacob Bogage covers economic policy in Congress for The Washington Post, where
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