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MIDTERMS APPROACHING: REFERENDUM OR ULTIMATUM?

October 10, 2022
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This November’s elections will decide the makeup of the next U.S. Congress and
influence the direction of President Biden’s agenda for his remaining term.
Numerous local and statewide votes will be held across the U.S. on November 8th,
2022. Crucial U.S. Senate and House of Representatives seats will also be on the
line. 


While Republicans are considered favorites to capture the house, Democrats are
favored to keep the Senate. However, with all significant elections, nothing is
predictable or guaranteed.  Currently, the Democratic Party holds a slight
majority in both the House and the Senate, giving the DNC a complete governing
trifecta, with that Biden in the White House. 


Historically, the President’s party almost always loses seats in the House, and
often loses seats in the Senate. However, Democrats hope that several key issues
will be pivotal in determining the choices of swing voters - a strategy that is
crucial to mitigating their losses often suffered by the party in control. 


Earlier this year, Democrats surged in popularity following their rallying
behind abortion rights after The Supreme Court overturned the constitutional
right to receive the often life-saving procedure. The decision to overturn Roe
v. Wade has left many in disdain and will certainly influence voters next month.
The party is hopeful that other recent points of contention will be instrumental
in securing control. For example, gun control, student loan forgiveness, and
combating threats to our democracy are also likely to resonate with
constituents. 


Conversely, Republicans had hoped to make the November vote a referendum on
Biden. This backfired when former President Trump centered his campaign around
himself, baseless claims of election fraud, and political witch hunts. Trump had
recently campaigned in Arizona and Nevada over the weekend - two states with
Senate candidates who embraced the MAGA-pushed narrative of a stolen election -
while simultaneously praising the January 6th crowd that had attacked the U.S.
Capitol. These are two of the closest Senate races in the country. The Senate is
essentially split: Republicans only need to net a single seat in order to take
control of the Senate. 

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