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ISRAELI INITIATIVE




THE ISRAELI INITIATIVE

7th draft – June 2024

Authors

 * Prof. Jonathan Dekel-Chen, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
 * Lt. Colonel (Ret.) Mordechai Kedar, PhD
 * Etai Dekel-Chen

Executive Summary

Now, in the ninth month of Operation “Iron Swords,” all of Israel’s stated
military objectives and a permanent cease-fire can be achieved through a
large-scale exile of a large number of the remaining Hamas, and other terrorist,
forces remaining in the Gaza Strip.[1]

In recent months we have presented and discussed the proposal with the most
senior military officials, members of Israel’s security community, as well as
leading politicians and scholars in Israel.  We have also presented this
Initiative and its Executive Summary to US officials directly connected to the
hostage crisis and negotiation process; all of these decision-makers agree that
it bears much potential. To the best of our knowledge, none of them have yet
raised it for discussion in the negotiation process between Israel and Hamas.
Our ongoing meetings with prominent government, security officials and scholars
in Israel suggest that this proposal can be agreed upon by the majority of the
Israeli public and, consequently, also by the Israeli government.[2] 

This initiative takes a holistic approach to end the conflict and return of the
120 hostages (living and murdered) held by Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. No less
important, the initiative proposes the contours of post-Hamas Gaza. We base our
plan for post-Hamas Gaza upon the painful historical conclusion that both Israel
and the United States have failed in the past in their attempts at democratic
state-building in Arab countries using western models. The plan lays out a
positive future for the people of Gaza, free of Hamas and with the resources to
rebuild secure and stable communities.

Current Conditions

To date, the Israeli government has not presented a plan for ending the war that
addresses the “day after” for the population of post-Hamas Gaza.  Israel has
only dealt with partial deals; it has not presented a viable option for the
return of all the hostages. This Initiative aims to remedy this vacuum of
workable ideas.

Hamas no longer governs the vast majority of the Gaza Strip. As a result of the
current war, its leadership is isolated in small pockets in the central and
southern areas of Gaza. The IDF has significantly depleted its membership. Large
parts of Gaza are now in chaos. That being said, Hamas is patient; its leaders
still believe that time works in their favor.  Hamas has prepared itself for
war. By various means it still possesses sufficient supplies of food, fuel,
water, ammunition, manpower and international support.  Hamas also holds 120
hostages, who they use as human shields and as an “insurance policy” for its
leaders. As admitted by Yehya Sinwar, and documented by the Wall Street Journal
earlier this month, Sinwar also counts the people of Gaza as human shields for
Hamas members, thereby directly endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands
of Palestinian civilians.

The Biden Administration has supported Israel’s war effort against Hamas but
does not understand Israel’s war aims. As a result, the Administration limits
Israel’s freedom of action to apply maximal military or humanitarian pressure on
Hamas.

Qatar’s leaders appear comfortable with the current state of affairs.  It is not
under significant pressure from Washington and, therefore, does not apply
maximal pressure on Hamas to reach a deal with Israel that will free the
hostages. 

The current war has increased pressure on Egypt, which fears a potential exodus
of refugees from Gaza as well as a looming economic crisis arising from the
closing of the Suez Canal by Houthi rebels in Yemen firing at civilian shipping
in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. The current war also threatens domestic unrest
from the Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Palestinian Egyptians. 

Those hostages who are still alive face grave danger, held in ever-worsening
conditions and vulnerable to IDF attacks on Hamas targets.  Israel’s best
efforts to rescue them through military action have failed – barring three
rescue missions that freed a total of hostages held by Hamas above ground. 

Our proposal does not contradict, override or reject interim partial deals for
the release of hostages or increases in humanitarian aid. 

The Israeli Initiative: Description

All of Israel’s war objectives (ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza, return of all
hostages, restoring security in Israel’s South, rebuilding Israel’s deterrence)
can be achieved through a mass exile of all (or the great majority of) remaining
Hamas and other terrorist forces.  This can happen only by forming a unified
Israeli front, fully coordinated with the US, Qatar, and Egypt. This unified
front will facilitate maximum military, diplomatic and civilian pressure on
Hamas.

Hamas’s Objectives:

 1. The destruction of Israel, even if this now might seem a distant
    possibility.
 2. Full governance in Gaza and, eventually, the West Bank. This simultaneously
    will serve to enhance Hamas’s efforts to destroy Israel. 
 3. Releasing Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. This will facilitate the
    first two objectives.
 4. Fragmentation of Israeli society, which will also facilitate Hamas’s first
    three objectives.

Each objective has its own importance for Hamas; each will count as a victory
for Hamas in this war.  The Israeli hostages held by Hamas serve a direct role
in reaching the last two objectives, while also supporting the first two
goals. The hostages provide leverage for the release of Palestinian prisoners
held by Israel. The hostage crisis has increased tensions in Israeli society.
 Therefore, Hamas has a vested interest in holding the hostages for as long as
possible.

Starting with Hamas’s massacre on October 7, 2023 of more than 1200 Israelis
alongside its kidnapping of 240 others, Yehya Sinwar could have ended the
bloodshed and suffering of millions of Palestinians in Gaza by releasing all the
Israeli hostages. Now, nearly nine months into this war, only an Israeli
initiative, supported by a broad, multi-nation coalition, can bring the release
of all hostages and end the war.

Israel’s Political Landscape

To reach an agreement with Hamas while retaining broad public support in Israel,
this proposal respects the “red lines” of major political actors in Israel. At
the same time, the proposal demands concessions from each of them. 

To the best of our understanding, the Israeli Right wing will not settle for
less than full Israeli security control over the Gaza Strip. It will not agree
to deals that include a mass release of convicted terrorists into the West Bank
(including East Jerusalem) or their release into “Green Line” Israel.[3] The
Israeli Right, however, will agree to postpone pursuit of Hamas leaders until
after the release of the hostages. To obtain the release of the hostages, the
Israel Right will also agree to not renew Jewish settlement activities in Gaza. 

The Israeli Center and Left wings will not settle for anything less than full
release of all the hostages.  They will, however, accept full Israeli security
control over the Gaza strip and will be prepared to postpone the two-state
solution until a worthy, deradicalized Palestinian leadership emerges. 

Given the above, we propose the exile of Hamas leaders and their families, along
with all remaining militants and factions to a host country(ies), while
minimizing the release of convicted terrorists and maintaining Israeli security
control over Gaza. 

The Plan, by Stages

 1.  After securing Israel’s agreement, together with agreement with the US and
     synchronization with Egypt and Qatar, the proposal is presented to Hamas
     either directly or through a third party. 
 2.  Israel intensifies military operations and clarifies that this plan is the
     only way for Hamas to survive the war. 
 3.  Cease Fire
 4.  Once Hamas accepts this plan – including the exile of all remaining Hamas
     forces – Israel holds fire and releases Palestinian prisoners (exact
     numbers to be determined through negotiations before the plan is
     implemented). 
 5.  Israel repositions to defensive lines inside Gaza, according to the
     security needs defined by the IDF. These lines are not negotiable by Hamas
     and will include a deep demilitarized kill-zone on the border between
     Israel and Gaza.
 6.  Israel retains full control of the border between Gaza and Egypt (the
     Philadelphi Corridor). This step is crucial to ensure full demilitarization
     and disarmament of the Gaza Strip. Since Israel’s unilateral disengagement
     from Gaza in 2005, Egypt has proven incapable of stopping the flow of
     weapons and other militarized resources flowing through, and under, its
     border with Gaza.
 7.  Israel retains “‘operational freedom” to neutralize all security threats
     in, and emanating from, Gaza.  
 8.  All of the hostages – civilians, soldiers, men, women, children, living and
     deceased – are released within a maximum of 24 hours from implementation of
     the plan. The hostages are transferred to Israel by the Red Cross or
     directly to Israel through Egypt.  None of the remaining 120 hostages is
     left behind. 
 9.  Hamas goes into exile to a pre-arranged host country(ies). All Hamas
     leaders and all personnel exit the Gaza Strip.  They are allowed to take
     their personal firearms, flags and nuclear families.  All Islamic Jihad
     members and other terrorist factions exit Gaza.  Israel publishes a list of
     every person that cannot remain in Gaza after the exile. Anyone on that
     list remaining in Gaza thereafter will be considered in violation of the
     agreement and neutralized by Israel. 
 10. Countries with diplomatic ties to Israel who agree to host these exiles
     from Gaza will receive a commitment from Israel that it will not pursue on
     their lands exiled members of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, on condition
     that the exiles do not reengage in terrorist activities. 
 11. Once the exile is complete, Gaza is split into self-administrating
     provinces. Civilian responsibility in Gaza is given to disarmed local
     entities, mutually agreed upon by Israel and the US (and possibly Egypt,
     Qatar and Saudi Arabia). These provinces will be joined into a
     Confederation system.[4]
 12. The Palestinian Authority plays no role in post-Hamas Gaza. UNRWA’s role is
     reduced to humanitarian aid and will gradually dissolve once the provinces
     improve their governing and managerial capacities. 
 13. Israel retains sole responsibility for security in the Gaza strip and
     ensures that no armed force rises without its consent. 
 14. The reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza is conditional and dependent
     on full disarmament. 
 15. Each province in the Confederation will manage its own reconstruction and
     rehabilitation. The means of construction and training of local
     administration and police forces will be determined through negotiations.
     The countries supporting and funding the reconstruction and rehabilitation
     of Gaza (potentially Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt
     and others) will commit in advance to withdrawing their support if Hamas or
     any other armed group gains control of local governments, policing, or
     education systems. 



[1] Background: During a meeting with hostage families on December 28, 2023 with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and NSC chairman Tsachi Hanegbi, Prof.
Dekel-Chen (whose son Sagui is held hostage) voiced the urgent need to create a
clear proposal for ending the war and freeing the hostages. Accordingly, such a
proposal would demarcate an end-point to the military conflict and define
exactly what Hamas must do to stop Israel’s attack and allow the people of Gaza
to receive full humanitarian support and reconstruction. NSC chairman Hanegbi
invited Dekel-Chen to formulate a plan framework. The family immediately
approached Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a highly respected Israeli authority on
Hamas. The authors of the Initiative are solely responsible for its contents.  

[2] Israel’s current political environment is characterized by a great degree of
populism.  Most elected officials, in their quest for political survival, are
beholden to polls, protests, and social media within their own constituencies. 
Few Israeli political leaders pursue policies not already accepted by their
electoral bases.  Accordingly, public opinion is critical for any strategic
initiative for a possible outline to end the war. 

[3] The “Green Line” refers to Israel’s internationally recognized borders
before June 6, 1967.

[4] The Confederation system calls for the division of the Gaza Strip into
provinces based on territorial and/or municipal and/or tribal affiliations.
Assuming a territorial division, this would mean self-administering provinces in
Beth Lehia/Beth Hanoun, Gaza City, Deir El Balah, Khan Younis, Rafah. Each will
be managed and rebuilt independently.

X
HUNDREDS ARE HELD HOSTAGE BY HAMAS
303
days
:
21
hours
:
54
minutes
:
42
seconds