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EXCLUSIVE: GAZPROM 2025 PLAN ASSUMES NO MORE TRANSIT VIA UKRAINE TO EUROPE,
SOURCE SAYS

By Reuters
November 26, 20244:54 PM GMT+1Updated 3 days ago
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A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St.
Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June
5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new
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 * Summary
 * Companies

 * Russia's gas transit deal with Ukraine expires on Dec. 31
 * Gazprom's internal plans assume no flows via Ukraine in 2025
 * Russian gas exports to EU has plummeted after the war started
 * Gazprom's gas exports to EU and Turkey seen falling in 2025

MOSCOW, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Russian state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is making
the assumption that no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine after Dec. 31 in
its internal planning for 2025, a person familiar with the plans said.
Kyiv has said it wants to end the transit deal, which will bring an end to more
than half a century of gas flows from Siberia to the markets of central Europe
that began during Soviet times and has been a steady source of Russian budget
revenues.
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While Ukraine has said it would not consider extending the transit deal, which
generates up to $1 billion per year in transit fees for Kyiv, Moscow has
signalled it was open for talks and continuation of the flows via the route.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow was ready to continue
pumping gas through Ukraine.
Russia, which before the Ukraine war was Europe's number one natural gas
supplier, has lost almost all of its European customers as the European Union
tries to wean itself off Russian energy and after the Nord Stream pipeline to
Germany was blown up in 2022.
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According to the person familiar with Gazprom's plans, which are yet to be
approved by the top management, Russia's base-case scenario is that there will
be no gas transit via Ukraine next year. That person spoke on condition of
anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.
The source said Russian gas exports to "far abroad" - Gazprom's term for Europe
and Turkey, excluding ex-Soviet countries - are expected to fall by a fifth in
2025 to just below 39 billion cubic metres from more than 49 bcm expected this
year due to the end of the Ukrainian route.

That covers supplies to Turkey via the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines and
excludes exports to China, which are expected to reach 38 bcm next year via the
Power of Siberia pipeline.
Russian gas exports to Turkey are unlikely to fall.
Gazprom did not reply to a request for comment.
Since the discovery of major Siberian gas deposits after World War Two, Soviet
and post-Soviet leaders have spent half a century building up an energy business
that linked the Soviet Union, then Russia, with Europe's economies.

War, and explosions, have almost destroyed that link, hurting the economies of
both Russia and Europe, which is now much more dependent on U.S. gas supplies.
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are already relatively small. Russia
shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8%
of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the
town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's
Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.

About 14.65 billion bcm of gas was supplied via Sudzha in 2023, or about half of
Russian natural gas exports to Europe. EU gas consumption fell to 295 bcm in
2023.

Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S.
newsletter. Sign up here.

Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Tomasz Janowski

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

 * Suggested Topics:
 * Commodities
 * Exploration & Production
 * Gas
 * Ukraine and Russia at War

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