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SEPTEMBER 26, 2009


THE BIG 3


atlantabraves , baseball , bobbycox , gregmaddux , johnsmoltz , pitching , stats
, tomglavine 2 comments
My friend Dan Murray left a comment on my previous post about Bobby Cox's
retirement. Dan brought up an interesting point that Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine
might be tougher for the Braves to replace than Cox. I thought I'd look into it.

Some notes to the data:

 1. This data covers 1991-2008 (the entire period that they pitched for the
    Braves). During this time Smoltz was a Brave for all 18 years, Maddux was
    with the Braves from 1993-2003 and Glavine from 1991-2002.
 2. Smoltz was the Braves closer for the 2nd half of 2001 through the 2004.





I find all of this quite impressive. Sure, they made a lot more money, but they
backed it up. Their ERA was 21% better than the rest of the team, they won 9%
more games, clearly had a better ERA year after year, and more than pitched
their fair share of innings.

In fact, the most impressive stat to me is that between 1993-1998 the Big 3
threw 50.3% of the total innings for the Braves. Three pitchers throwing that
many innings is simply incredible. I can't imagine there are too many, if any,
teams in the last 50+ years that could even come close to that.



SEPTEMBER 24, 2009


THE BOBBY COX ERA


atlantabraves , baseball , bobbycox , danmurray , stats 1 comment
Long-time Braves manager, Bobby Cox, announced his retirement today effective at
the end of the 2010 season. Bobby took over the managerial duties for the Braves
in the middle of the 1990 season. The next season started a string of 14
consecutive Division titles, a record likely to never be approached again.

The Braves were dominant in all facets of the game compared to the rest of Major
League Baseball. He's going to be tough to replace.






SEPTEMBER 19, 2009


KATRINA CONTRACTS


government , halliburton , hurricane , katrina , spending , waste 2 comments
I read a story recently about Halliburton and the incredible number of contracts
and money they scored from Hurricane Katrina. Oh by the way, George Bush was
President, Dick Cheney was VP and Cheney was CEO of Halliburton from 1995-2000.

That led me to finding how Katrina contracts were being awarded by government
Department. It's been tough to identify just which contracts were awarded to
Halliburton since most of them are to subsidiaries. I'm working to gather all of
those. The data was gathered from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS).

This is a very simple analysis, well not really much analysis at all, but in
this instance, given the amount of information I want to display, I actually
think the pie chart works better. Thoughts?








SEPTEMBER 16, 2009


WHY WAS DAVE STEWART PICKED ON?


1988 , balks , baseball , davestewart , oaklandathletics , stats , tableau ,
trends 2 comments
I was building out the pitching stats of baseball database I downloaded from
Baseball Databank and happened to look at a trend of balks. I noticed this HUGE
spike in the number of balks in 1988. I figured there had to be something wrong
with the data, so I turned to Google. I found this terrific blog post that
explains exactly what happened in 1988.

THE RULES WERE CHANGED!

So what happened? In 1988, the Oakland Athletics led the majors with 76 balks or
just over 8% of the total. 1988 accounted for 37% of the A's balks from
1985-2008...that's ridiculous!

Dave Stewart set a record with 16 balks. Order was restored in 1989 and Dave
Stewart had zero balks. I do remember Dave Stewart going to the plate quickly,
so maybe it was the change in the rule that says "the pitcher must come to a
single complete and discernible stop" that got him.






SEPTEMBER 11, 2009


TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT JOB LOSSES


economy , justinfox , nancypelosi , recession , timemagazine , timeseries 2
comments
Time Magazine blogger Justin Fox took a wonderful jab at a chart that Nancy
Pelosi's office posted about the current recession. The Pelosi chart below makes
it look like the sky is falling, but it looks at the data in terms of total job
losses.



Justin did a great job of creating a different, perhaps more realistic,
comparison of the current recession to past recessions by looking at job losses
as a percent decline.



What an incredible difference if you just look at the data slightly differently.

It's kind of scary that there isn't someone in Pelosi's office that would know
to at least consider looking at the data as a percent decline. This spins the
data in a more positive light, or maybe I should say, a less negative light.

Read Justin's full post here.



SEPTEMBER 10, 2009


IS PITCHING STILL MORE IMPORTANT THAN HITTING?


atlantabraves , baseball , joesimpson , stats , tableau 4 comments
I'm a big fan of the Atlanta Braves. Last night their TV broadcasters, were
having a discussion about which league is stronger, the American League or the
National League. The age old adage is that pitching wins, but Joe Simpson gave a
pretty strong argument in favor of hitting and thus, that the American League is
the "stronger" league.

Interleague play, which started in 1997, is a good place to determine how the
leagues match up.



In 2004, they were separated by only one game, but since then, the American
League has been winning by wide margins. This fact, in and of itself, does not
support Joe Simpson's argument.

I extend the research a bit further by comparing ERA and batting average. I used
Tableau to analyze the data.



On the top, it's clear that the American League has had a higher ERA and a
higher batting average every year since 1985. I don't think it's a stretch then
to say these charts in conjunction with the interleague comparison indicate that
hitting is more important to winning than ERA, and Joe's argument is now
supported.

The scatter plot on the bottom left again shows that the American League
typically has a higher ERA and batting average. This is really just the two line
graphs compared to each other.

Finally, the scatter plot on the bottom right extends the first scatter plot to
include the league that won the World Series.

I find it interesting that when the American League wins the World Series, they
win it because of hitting, whereas when the National League wins the World
Series it's due to pitching.

Maybe this is all related to the DH. Hmmm....



SEPTEMBER 8, 2009


INFLATED SALARIES


3D , barchart , baseball , baseballalmanac , stats , strike No comments
Stats, stats, stats. That's what baseball is all about. I found a great site,
baseball-almanac.com, that provides just about every stat imaginable. I have a
baseball database as well, so I like to find sites like this and compare them to
visualizations I build on my own. The chart below references salary data over
five-year periods.



Source: Baseball Almanac

There are some fundamental flaws with this chart:

1) The 3D bars are unnecessary and make it very difficult to determine an
approximate value for the bar.

2) The color choice would makes it virtually unreadable by those that are color
blind.

3) The data is misleading. What good is a chart if the data is misrepresented?
The stacked bar chart artificially inflates the average salary. It is increased
by the amount of the minimum salary, whereas they are separate measures. I
moused over the average salary bar for 2005; the value is $2.6M, but without
mousing over the bar, I would have assumed the average salary was nearer $3M.

4) The header indicates "Salary Data Appears in Five-Year Increments." What does
that mean? Is it a five-year average, is it every fifth year?

5) The chart leads you to believe that the average salary has increased every
year since 1970, but it hasn't. Below is the average salary by year from
1980-2008. Visualizing this as a line chart reveals that salaries indeed did NOT
increase every year.



Oh, by the way, salaries sure have escalated dramatically since the 1994 Players
Association Strike. So much for revenue-sharing controlling spiraling salaries.



SEPTEMBER 7, 2009


BUBBLES BUBBLES EVERYWHERE


aoscott , barchart , bubblechart , contribution , internet , media ,
newyorktimes , piechart , stats , stephenfew , tableau , television 4 comments
The New York Times ran an article written by A.O. Scott back in November. The
purpose is not to critique the article, but rather the, gasp, bubble chart used
to rank media consumption hours.



I'm a big fan of Stephen Few and have learned a lot from Stephen and his books
about effective visual design. Stephen point out that "Visual perception in
humans has not evolved to support the comparison of 2-D areas, except as rough
approximations that are far from accurate."

As soon as I saw this ranked bubble chart, I immediately began exploring other,
more effective display mediums. Here are some examples.

I wanted to start by trying to find a way to use the bubble charts. The only
method I could employ was to add color to the bubble charts, but I don't gain
much at all.



Of course, the simplest way to rank data is through a simple bar chart. The
first example is as intuitive as it gets; it's very easy to compare the relative
size of the bars. The only purpose of this graph is to emphasize the rank.



I took this a step further. When reviewing Scott's bubble chart, I had the
impression that he was emphasizing the percentage of time that we spend in each
of the different medium. That led me to a bar chart that shows the contribution
to the total. It's the same graphic as the ranking chart above, but this time I
intentionally labelled the bars to emphasize the contribution of each activity.



I'll conclude with one of the least effective displays, the dreaded pie chart,
but I think one of the pie charts is actually a bit effective. The first pie
chart displays every category, which makes it impossible to compare the sizes
and has way too much information.



I decided to group all but the top two categories into an "other" category to
simplify the pie chart and I also ensured that they were ranked by contribution
as you made your way around the pie.



Which display do you like best? Which display is most effective? My vote is for
the bar chart displaying the contribution to the total.



SEPTEMBER 3, 2009


A CORRELATION JUSTIFIED


chrispereira , correlation , economy , scatterplot , tableau , trends ,
videogames No comments
I read an article by Chris Pereira the other day that made an attempt to link
the recession to video game usage. In fact, the subtitle is: "With economy
troubles, gamers are buying a larger percentage of used games." While there is a
link between video game usage and the current recession, this a pretty bold
statement given the analysis presented (which Chris built on from a Time
magazine article). I'll show you my evidence that backs up Chris in a bit.

The first chart presented by Chris (via Nielsen) analyzes video game usage
trends over the last four years. I don't think this chart proves anything more
than the fact that video game usage has increased year over year for the last
four years...that's it. You simply can't say that the upswing in time spent
playing video games in 2009 is due to the recession.



The second chart tries to make the same correlation, but again, I see the same
type of trend from 2007-2009 that you see in the first chart. People are just
playing more variety of games...that's all. There is absolutely no way from this
chart to draw a conclusion that used video game sales are in any way related to
the recession.



Ok, so how can I say that it's just a matter of fact observation? Look at this
chart (created with Tableau). If you look at the four year trend of hours
played, there is a continuous increase is hours played. You might say "I don't
see this in 2009." But in each year in May, you see a big decrease in hours
played. As Chris says in his evaluation: "May has traditionally seen a drop-off
each year (blame the improving weather)." I can see the reasoning there.

You can also see that from 2007-2009, a similar trend can be derived from used
game sales.



I tried to find a correlation between hours played and used game sales (since
the article says both are related to the recession), but the facts don't support
this.



I decided to look at other factors that could correlate the recession to video
game hours played to help support Chris' argument. We have been hearing quite a
bit regarding the housing crisis and it's impact on the economy. I gathered
economic data from FRED and was able to demonstrate that a prolonged decrease in
housing starts does indeed indicate that a recession is coming.



My next step was to identify correlations between housing starts and the
increase in video game hours played. Based on this analysis, I believe that a
much stronger argument can be made the an increase in hours played is a possible
indication that a recession is taking place. I set the "hours played" scale to
match the Nielsen Data.



I find the color-coding of the years very useful and, to me, the relationship
can be clearly seen. As housing starts decrease, video game hours player per
week decrease. Since the years are color-coded, you can tie them back to the
housing starts/recession trend chart above.

What's the bottom line? I agree with Chris that there is a relationship between
video game hours played and the recession, but the way to get there is much more
conclusive if you use economic indicators to support the theory.

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     * The Big 3
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