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home2Douglas Busch2019-12-09T16:07:35-05:00


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9Apr 2022

Douglas Busch2022-04-09T21:08:29-04:00

ENERGY SECTOR REVIEW: 4/11/22

Douglas Busch2022-04-09T21:08:29-04:00Saturday|0 Comments

Flags Are Flying........: And it is not in surrender. Of course, that was a stab
at humor but in all seriousness, many charts in the energy sector are bull
flagging at the moment, and doing so at 52-week or all-time highs. The OIH is
flagging just below the very round 300 number. Flags form after sideways, taut
action following a big run to the upside (or downside with a bear flag). And
unless one was hiding under a rock for the last year and a half, they would be
well aware of just how dominant the group has been. The flags are continuation
patterns, meaning they tend to break in the direction from where they came and
we are well aware that trends tend to persist, much more likely than they are to
reverse. The best investors/traders will demand best of breed names, that
deserve their hard-earned capital. Below is a good example of that with the
chart of DVN. Admire the distance between the rising 50 and 200 day SMAs and in
2022 has yet to CLOSE a session below the 50 day. And that is in an environment
not too long ago there was a very small percentage of stocks above their 200 day
SMAs.

7Apr 2022

Douglas Busch2022-04-07T16:14:00-04:00

HEALTHCARE SECTOR REVIEW: 4/8/22

Douglas Busch2022-04-07T16:14:00-04:00Thursday|0 Comments

Healthcare On The Move: The diverse sector seems to be firing on all cylinders
at the moment. Even biotech has the feel that it has bottomed as long as the XBI
can hold the round 80 number. Equipment via the IHI is now just 8% off most
recent 52 week highs and is dealing with its 200 day SMA right here. The PPH has
gone vertical and we mentioned we liked the action POST breakout from the WEEKLY
cup base but this is acting like a leading biotech. Healthcare providers broke
out Thursday above a cup with handle pivot of 288.60. And below is the chart of
the XLV which showed good follow-through today above its own cup with handle
trigger of 139.05, and we know the best breakouts tend to work right away so
this is a good sign. This is an environment where one can utilize the "barbell
approach" and buy both stable, conservative pharma names in addition to the
leading, more risky biotechs. 

6Apr 2022

Douglas Busch2022-04-06T16:14:02-04:00

CONSUMER STAPLES REVIEW: 4/7/22

Douglas Busch2022-04-06T16:14:02-04:00Wednesday|0 Comments

Risk On/Off Indicator: One of the traditional ways investors like to gauge the
risk factor in a bullish or bearish way is to compare the consumer staples to
the consumer discretionary sectors. Below is the ratio chart and it is easy to
see how the staples have outperformed over since the start of December. On a YTD
basis, the staples via the XLP is basically UNCH, making it the third-best major
S&P sector out of 11. The XLY, even with the recent surges in AMZN and TSLA that
make up 40% of the fund, is the worst acting major group in 2022 thus far off
11%. Weighing heavily on discretionary are the homebuilders and home improvement
plays with the ITB lower 11 of the last 13 weeks and by another 4.6%, this week
headed into Thursday. "Energizing" the staples have been tobacco stocks with MO
right at 52 week highs (well outshining PM which is 12% off its annual peak).
The ratio chart below puts it at a critical juncture as the XLP is retesting the
break below the 3-month uptrend. If it fails "risk" will be back on. I am not in
that camp but let PRICES dictate your strategy, not your opinions.



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