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SEPTEMBER 2023

Opinion


HOW BIG IS THE ADDRESSABLE MARKET FOR COTM FLAT PANEL ANTENNAS?

What does the COTM addressable market look like today and how will it…

Found inOpinion


PREPARE FOR A SPACE ECONOMY THAT CAN LEVERAGE SPACEX’S STARSHIP

SpaceX’s Starship is about to become a reality, bringing unprecedented payload
capacity, fairing volume and maybe price reductions to satellite operators. This
paves the way for new, ambitious satellite designs, missions, and business
models.

Gabriel Deville

August 28, 2023



Despite failing to reach orbit last April and highlighting the challenges of
super heavy launch campaigns, SpaceX’s Starship will soon become a reality,
owing to extensive private funding, to an unprecedented development pace, to
NASA’s support through the Human Landing System contract, and even an early
commercial backlog. Starship will bring unprecedented payload capacity, fairing
volume and maybe price reductions to the market, paving the way for new,
ambitious satellite designs, missions, and business models. However, due to
SpaceX commitments to NASA’s Artemis program, to its own Starlink launch needs,
and to the inevitably slow ramp-up of a super heavy launcher, it is unclear how
soon Starship will be available for conventional satellite demand.

SpaceX’s latest capacity estimates for Starship (at 150 metric tonnes to
Low-Earth Orbit in reusable configuration and up to 250 metric tonnes in
expendable) offset that of any other launcher in history by a long shot. This
adds to the long list of rupture innovations (in an industry used to incremental
ones) that it would bring to the market, including its 9-meter-wide fairing,
two-stage reusability (which may enable a price drop and launching at low fill
rates economically), and unique production model (enabled by use of stainless
steel for ease of its manipulation and welding). With such potential reaching
the market soon, it is time to prepare for Starship’s impact on the space
economy.


SATELLITES TO GO SUPERSIZE?

Starship’s unique features carry many promises for satellite operators. First,
its 9-meter-wide fairing and virtually unlimited payload capacity pave the way
for new satellite designs. Operators could move toward larger, more performant,
and power-hungry spacecraft. With larger antennas, solar panels, or sensors,
they could drastically increase their satellites’ CapEx efficiency. Large
fairings also simplify architecture by partially removing the need for
deployable structures and even costly miniaturization – one of the historical
leitmotivs of satellite design. Hence, operators could move toward bulkier, less
complex, easier to manufacture satellites.

However, the market should expect latency between Starship going orbital and
satellite operators adapting their designs to leverage its features. Operators
are inherently reticent to modify their designs, especially to leverage an
unproven solution, even more so if there if there is just one supplier. Several
years of demonstration and the addition of other super heavy launchers (Blue
Origin’s New Glenn ahead) will likely be necessary before we see the first
adaptations. Furthermore, Starship’s initial markets will not be conventional
satellites (although it already has Geostationary Orbit launch orders), but
rather contracts with NASA for the Artemis program and its own Starlink
constellation.

Alongside superior capacity and volume, SpaceX has publicized a drastic
reduction in launch cost, and potentially launch prices, owing to full
reusability. As all Starship elements are reused, with enough launches,
manufacturing costs per launch could be rendered insignificant, with the only
additional costs being fuel and operations. Elon Musk has publicized a launch
cost of $100 per kilogram over “numerous reuses” (comparing with about $2,300
per kilogram on Falcon Heavy at full capacity and $6,000 per kilogram entry
price on Transporter rideshares). However, there is no evidence supporting such
reduction so far. There is no guarantee that SpaceX would reflect a cost
reduction with a price reduction for customers, especially as the company has a
near monopoly over heavy launch in the foreseeable near future (due to delays
with ULA and Arianespace’s new launchers, and saturation of their backlog by
Amazon Kuiper).

Starship could also bring new potential for rapid constellation batch
deployment. Large constellations are keen on deploying their satellites rapidly
in order to begin operations as soon as possible. With its capacity, Starship
could theoretically deploy entire constellations in very few launches,
reigniting engines multiple times to reach several inclinations in one launch.
In fact, this is essential for SpaceX’s own broadband revenue model, which will
rely on the ability to rapidly deploy and replenish the future, heavier second
generation of Starlink satellites (to weigh an estimated 1200 kilograms each,
comparing to 200 kilograms for the first generation). According to SpaceX,
Starship could deploy over 50 second generation Starlink per launch.

Starship could even be used to address the smallsat rideshare launch market as a
complementary market. Although its capacity is arguably overkill for this market
(even filling Falcon 9 Transporter flights takes up to a year with scattered
smallsat demand, and they still launch with low fill rates), its full
reusability may enable it to launch economically with a very low fill rate,
since all elements are reused anyways. Still, this will likely be a low priority
market in the foreseeable future.

Space exploration and human spaceflight are already being redefined too,
starting with NASA’s Artemis program, as single large monolithic spacecraft
could replace a constellation of capabilities including launcher, capsule,
transfer stage and lander (provided enough refueling missions).

There are many more propositions to leverage Starship’s unprecedented
dimensions. For instance, it could theoretically launch entire space stations as
single modules (removing the need for in-space assembly), although SpaceX could
compete with such clients by making a Starship upper stage into a space station
by itself (having, in its future crew configuration, similar pressurized volume
as the ISS). It could also serve as structure for a large space telescope, as a
refueling station for spacecraft (in-space cryogenic refueling is a critical
capability for NASA Artemis missions), as a mean of deploying ambitious active
debris removal solutions, and many more.

Euroconsult previews potential use cases for Starship.


A LONG ROAD TO ECONOMIC VALIDATION AND MARKET ADOPTION

Until then, SpaceX must still achieve orbital flight and introduce operational
versions for its priority markets, starting with a Lunar landing version and a
Tanker version for NASA’s Artemis program, and a LEO version for Starlink
deployments. These markets are SpaceX’s near-term priority, its long term
priority being spaceflight to Mars. To fulfill its contract with NASA for a
single crew landing on the Moon, it will need to launch Starship up to 15 times
(including one Lunar Starship and 14 Tanker Starships) within six months. As for
its own Starlink launches, they are a priority for SpaceX, as they are to become
its main source of revenue. Hence, transporting conventional satellite demand to
LEO and GEO is inevitably a secondary target.

Meanwhile, there is no guarantee of large-scale market adoption by conventional
satellite operators in the foreseeable future. Starship would have to
demonstrate reliability, affordability and regular launch opportunities for them
in order to become more attractive than conventional heavy launchers. Because of
this and because of SpaceX obligations to NASA, it is possible that Starship
will remain almost exclusive to NASA and to SpaceX’s endogenous demand until the
end of the decade.

Finally, operations will likely be slower to ramp-up than most observers expect
due to technical challenges and upgrades with the launcher and launch tower,
further regulatory and environmental clearance obstacles, launch infrastructure
availability (launch rates from the Cape Canaveral will have to accommodate the
other users on the base), strict certification by NASA for human spaceflight,
and the simple scale of super heavy launch campaigns. VS

Gabriel Deville is a space industry consultant at Euroconsult in Montreal,
Canada. He specializes in satellite upstream activities, launcher economics,
space logistics and space sector financing. Gabriel is the Editor in Chief for
Euroconsult’s Space Logistics Markets and Space Market Monitoring reports.

Lead photo credit: SpaceX photo taken before the Starship test flight mission in
April 2023





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