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UNKNOWN ENEMY: PREPARING AGAINST BIOTHREATS

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Think again.

Think this is science fiction?

There was a commotion in the street last night but since then, everything has
gone quiet. Is it the water or food that is making us—and our animals—sick? From
hospital doctors to veterinarians, help is on the way. But many fear this might
be too little, too late.

11 am April 19, 2045.



We don’t know what’s going on out there. Spiking rates of malnutrition, disease,
and death are all over the news. Animals are burning with fever and behaving
strangely in farms, reporters say. Many of them are dying. People are getting
sick, too. We are told to stay inside.

Trigger warning: this piece contains depictions of worst-case scenarios and
imagery reminiscent of Covid-19 which may cause distress.

Please proceed with care.

Turn sound on before you scroll



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Think again.

Think this is science fiction?



11 am April 19, 2045.





Trigger warning: this piece contains depictions of worst-case scenarios and
imagery reminiscent of Covid-19 which may cause distress.

Please proceed with care.

Turn sound on before you scroll

Are we really prepared against deliberate events?



What if the next global crisis wasn’t a natural occurrence, but something
intentionally caused?



Are we really prepared against deliberate events?



What if the next global crisis wasn’t a natural occurrence, but something
intentionally caused?


BIOTHREATS


UNKNOWN ENEMY:


PREPARING AGAINST






Among the most alarming risks is that of deliberate biothreats—animal pathogens
engineered or released with the intent to harm populations and destabilise
societies. The tools, technology and expertise to create such threats are now
more accessible than ever.

Accidents, natural and human-made disasters, infectious disease outbreaks have
all strained the animal and human health sectors, leading to loss of life and
livelihoods.

Our world is more interconnected than ever before… and increasingly unsafe. In a
tightly globalised human civilisation, the threats we face have dramatically
evolved. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and complex.


PART I.
BEFORE THE DISASTER STRIKES

Among the most alarming risks is that of deliberate biothreats—animal pathogens
engineered or released with the intent to harm populations and destabilise
societies. The tools, technology and expertise to create such threats are now
more accessible than ever.

Accidents, natural and human-made disasters, infectious disease outbreaks have
all strained the animal and human health sectors, leading to loss of life and
livelihoods.

Our world is more interconnected than ever before… and increasingly unsafe. In a
tightly globalised human civilisation, the threats we face have dramatically
evolved. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and complex.


PART I.
BEFORE THE DISASTER STRIKES

The next global crisis may not be a natural disaster, but something deliberately
caused.

Global security is no longer just about borders or military strength; it’s about
protecting the delicate systems that keep the world functioning in a rapidly
changing environment. A biothreat could put our interdependence to the test,
impacting health systems, economies, and everyday life in ways that are
difficult to predict or control.

While advancements in science and technology have brought great benefits, they
have also made it easier for extremist groups and malicious non-state actors to
develop their own arsenal of biological weapons.

The next global crisis may not be a natural disaster, but something deliberately
caused.

Global security is no longer just about borders or military strength; it’s about
protecting the delicate systems that keep the world functioning in a rapidly
changing environment. A biothreat could put our interdependence to the test,
impacting health systems, economies, and everyday life in ways that are
difficult to predict or control.

While advancements in science and technology have brought great benefits, they
have also made it easier for extremist groups and malicious non-state actors to
develop their own arsenal of biological weapons.


PART II.
THE CRISIS UNFOLDS


PART II:
THE CRISIS UNFOLDS

Lieutenant Joana Maia Pita, Veterinarian in the Portuguese army



> The risk of a deliberate biothreat is rising. And this risk can be
> specifically targeted at animals since agriculture is a sector that is
> critical in many economies. Such an attack would lead to severe economic loss
> and disruption.

Bioterrorism refers to the intentional release, by terrorists, criminal entities
or other non-state actors, of biological agents or toxins for the purpose of
harming or killing humans, animals or plants with the intent to intimidate or
coerce a government or civilian population to further political or social
objectives.

INTERPOL



Trevor Smith
Senior Program Manager, Biological and Chemical Security Weapons Threat
Reduction Program, Global Affairs Canada (GAC)



The emergencies we have already faced across the world—natural and accidental
disasters—are stark reminders of how fragile our interdependent systems are.


PART III.
DELIBERATE EVENTS: CAN WE LEARN FROM PAST EMERGENCIES?

The emergencies we have already faced across the world—natural and accidental
disasters—are stark reminders of how fragile our interdependent systems are.


PART III.
DELIBERATE EVENTS: CAN WE LEARN FROM PAST EMERGENCIES?

David Waldron
Farmer, Barbados



Hurricane Tomas damaged homes and livestock housing.

Barbados, October 2010




Heidi Marquez
Wildlife Educator at the Animal Kingdom Foundation



The eruption of the Taal Volcano destroyed crops, killed and injured farm
animals.

The Philippines, January 2020




Dr Elias Chaaban
Veterinarian, Beirut port



The Veterinary Services, in charge of surveilling the import of live animals,
were affected by the blast. Dr Elias Chaaban and his team scrambled to maintain
operations.



Dany Saker
Duck farmer, Batroun



The Beirut port explosion destroyed key infrastructures such as grain silos,
disrupting the supply chains essential to the country’s farmers and food supply.

Lebanon, August 2020



Communities worldwide need to be well prepared to manage established and
emerging risks posed by deliberate threats and natural infectious disease
outbreaks, together with other hazards.

When systems are overwhelmed,
both human and animal health suffer.

These events, as many others throughout the world, have shown how animal, human,
environmental health and security are deeply interconnected. If we struggle to
respond effectively to these crises, the cascading effects of a deliberate
biothreat could be even more catastrophic. This highlights the urgent need for
stronger preparedness and resilience.

Communities worldwide need to be well prepared to manage established and
emerging risks posed by deliberate threats and natural infectious disease
outbreaks, together with other hazards.

When systems are overwhelmed,
both human and animal health suffer.

These events, as many others throughout the world, have shown how animal, human,
environmental health and security are deeply interconnected. If we struggle to
respond effectively to these crises, the cascading effects of a deliberate
biothreat could be even more catastrophic. This highlights the urgent need for
stronger preparedness and resilience.


PART IV.
THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A DELIBERATE BIOTHREAT: WHAT COULD HAPPEN?


PART IV.
THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A DELIBERATE BIOTHREAT: WHAT COULD HAPPEN?

Trevor Smith
Senior Program Manager, Biological and Chemical Security Weapons Threat
Reduction Program, Global Affairs Canada (GAC)



Today, most countries are unprepared for deliberate events due to:

A lack of awareness, understanding and/or acceptance of the complex
risk landscape



Insufficient
funding and limited resources



Challenges
in understanding what
to do when a known deliberate event occurs, or whenever there is suspicion of a
deliberate event.



Poor cooperation between sectors








The lack of shared data, resources, and strategies can pave the path to missed
opportunities to contain outbreaks or protect vulnerable populations, leading
the situation to escalate.

Diseases, particularly zoonotic ones, don’t know boundaries—what begins in
animals can quickly spread to humans, affecting entire populations. If health
agencies, government authorities and security forces operate in silos, response
efforts may be fragmented, slow, or ineffective.

Without coordinated responses between animal health, human health, and security
agencies, the complex and interconnected modern crises can easily spiral into
chaos.

The lack of shared data, resources, and strategies can pave the path to missed
opportunities to contain outbreaks or protect vulnerable populations, leading
the situation to escalate.

Diseases, particularly zoonotic ones, don’t know boundaries—what begins in
animals can quickly spread to humans, affecting entire populations. If health
agencies, government authorities and security forces operate in silos, response
efforts may be fragmented, slow, or ineffective.

Without coordinated responses between animal health, human health, and security
agencies, the complex and interconnected modern crises can easily spiral into
chaos.

Trevor Smith
Senior Program Manager, Biological and Chemical Security Weapons Threat
Reduction Program, Global Affairs Canada (GAC)



Multisectoral collaboration—bringing together experts from health, security,
agriculture, and other sectors—ensures a more holistic response that addresses
all aspects of a potential biothreat.

Early warning systems used to prepare for weather and climate-related disasters,
for instance, can also help identify bioterrorist agents introduced into the
animal and the civilian population.

The strategies we use to respond to natural hazards can be powerful tools in
preparing for deliberate biothreats as well.


PART V.
COLLABORATIONS FOR GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY: SOLUTIONS AND HOPE

Multisectoral collaboration—bringing together experts from health, security,
agriculture, and other sectors—ensures a more holistic response that addresses
all aspects of a potential biothreat.

Early warning systems used to prepare for weather and climate-related disasters,
for instance, can also help identify bioterrorist agents introduced into the
animal and the civilian population.

The strategies we use to respond to natural hazards can be powerful tools in
preparing for deliberate biothreats as well.


PART V.
COLLABORATIONS FOR GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY: SOLUTIONS AND HOPE

Being prepared requires political support as well as a collaborative, productive
and supportive environment to:

Encourage partnerships with other sectors



Assess and prioritise hazards



Develop an adaptable contingency plan backed up with sustainable resources



Maintain a functional surveillance system



Conduct trainings and simulation exercises



Trevor Smith
Senior Program Manager, Biological and Chemical Security Weapons Threat
Reduction Program, Global Affairs Canada (GAC)



Lieutenant Joana Maia Pita, Veterinarian in the Portuguese army

> It is very important to have regular training exercises and organise
> simulation exercises that cover these wide range of hazards scenarios to test
> and refine these emergency plans and response strategies.

> By fostering this interdisciplinary collaboration involving all the sectors of
> society and entities, surveillance and research, and promoting integrated
> policies and education, this approach can significantly improve our ability to
> prepare, to prevent, to detect and to respond to biothreats.




Benjamin Wakefield
Senior Analyst at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a Research
Associate at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

To guard against these potential threats, WOAH is glad to collaborate with the
Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass
Destruction, which is committed to strengthening biological security on a global
scale.

This is why WOAH is committed to enhancing transdisciplinary responses and
fostering an emergency preparedness culture across its Membership.

Animal, human and environmental health are interdependent, and we must
collaborate across sectors especially for deliberate events, which require a
strong health-security function.

To guard against these potential threats, WOAH is glad to collaborate with the
Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass
Destruction, which is committed to strengthening biological security on a global
scale.

This is why WOAH is committed to enhancing transdisciplinary responses and
fostering an emergency preparedness culture across its Membership.

Animal, human and environmental health are interdependent, and we must
collaborate across sectors especially for deliberate events, which require a
strong health-security function.

undertakes capacity building—including trainings and simulation exercises—to
improve response strategies among Members



facilitates collaboration between sectors at national and international levels



strives to support its Members in preparing for all hazards impacting animal
health. To do this, WOAH helps them understand today’s dynamic hazard landscape,
including biological risks such as deliberate events



Since its founding 100 years ago, WOAH

Because animal health is our health. It’s everyone’s health.

By taking an all-hazards approach and building strong emergency management
systems,

we can prepare ourselves for the unpredictable challenges lying ahead.

Disaster risk reduction is a shared responsibility—and all sectors should be
involved in the pursuit of sustainable solutions.

With the world becoming increasingly complex and interconnected, the time has
come to prepare for an uncertain future through better and stronger emergency
management. WOAH advocates taking biothreats in animals seriously and urges
stakeholders to enhance efforts against all the threats facing today’s world.

The development of this longform article was supported by funding from the
Weapons Threat Reduction Program of Global Affairs Canada.



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