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INSIGHTFUL OR WISHFUL: LAWYERS' ABILITY TO PREDICT CASE OUTCOMES

Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, Vol. 16, No. 2, p. 133, 2010

UC Irvine School of Law Research Paper No. 2010-16

26 Pages Posted: 13 May 2010 Last revised: 26 Jul 2011

See all articles by Jane Goodman-Delahunty


JANE GOODMAN-DELAHUNTY

Charles Sturt University - Australian Graduate School of Policing


PAR ANDERS GRANHAG

University of Gothenburg


MARIA HARTWIG

CUNY, John Jay College of Criminal Justice


ELIZABETH F. LOFTUS

University of California, Irvine - Department of Psychological Science;
University of California, Irvine School of Law

Date Written: May 1, 2010


ABSTRACT

Lawyers’ litigation forecasts play an integral role in the justice system. In
the course of litigation, lawyers constantly make strategic decisions and/or
advise their clients on the basis of their perceptions and predictions of case
outcomes. The study investigated the realism in predictions by a sample of
attorneys (n=481) across the United States who specified a minimum goal to
achieve in a case set for trial. They estimated their chances of meeting this
goal by providing a confidence estimate. After the cases were resolved, case
outcomes were compared with the predictions. Overall, lawyers were overconfident
in their predictions, and calibration did not increase with years of legal
experience. Female lawyers were slightly better calibrated than their male
counterparts and showed evidence of less overconfidence. In an attempt to reduce
overconfidence, some lawyers were asked to generate reasons why they might not
achieve their stated goals. This manipulation did not improve calibration.



Keywords: Legal Decision Making, Case Predictions, Confidence Judgments,
Metacognitive Realism

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Goodman-Delahunty, Jane and Granhag, Par Anders and Hartwig, Maria and Loftus,
Elizabeth F., Insightful or Wishful: Lawyers' Ability to Predict Case Outcomes
(May 1, 2010). Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, Vol. 16, No. 2, p. 133, 2010,
UC Irvine School of Law Research Paper No. 2010-16, Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=1605487


JANE GOODMAN-DELAHUNTY

CHARLES STURT UNIVERSITY - AUSTRALIAN GRADUATE SCHOOL OF POLICING ( EMAIL )

Manly, NSW, 2088
Australia



PAR ANDERS GRANHAG

UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG ( EMAIL )

Gothenburg
Sweden



MARIA HARTWIG

CUNY, JOHN JAY COLLEGE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE ( EMAIL )

695 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10021
United States



ELIZABETH F. LOFTUS (CONTACT AUTHOR)

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE - DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE ( EMAIL )

4201 Social & Behavioral Sciences Gateway
University of California, Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697-7085
United States


UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE SCHOOL OF LAW

401 E. Peltason Dr.
Ste. 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-1000
United States



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71 REFERENCES

 1. C M Allwood, P A Granhag
    
    
    THE EFFECTS OF ARGUMENTS ON REALISM IN CONFIDENCE JUDGMENTS
    
    Acta Psychologica, volume 91, p. 99 - 119
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 2. C M Allwood, P A Granhag
    
    
    
    
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 3. E Babad, M Hills, M Driscoll
    
    
    FACTORS INFLUENCING WISHFUL THINKING AND PREDICTIONS OF ELECTION OUTCOMES
    
    Basic and Applied Social Psychology, volume 13, p. 461 - 476
    Posted: 1992
    Crossref
 4. L Babcock, G Loewenstein, S Issacharoff
    
    
    CREATING CONVERGENCE: DEBIASING BIASED LITIGANTS
    
    Law & Social Inquiry, volume 22, p. 913 - 925
    Posted: 1997
    Crossref

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