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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Work on financial markets using the economic calendar - use any trading tools
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Time Time left Country Event
Actual Forecast Previous
Tuesday 5 September
01:01 GBP Checked BRC零售额指标（同比） Checked
Actual
4.3%
Forecast
2.2%
Previous
1.8%
01:30 JPY Checked 消费物价国家指标，除了食品和载能力价格 （同比） Checked
Actual
-2.7%
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
0.9%
03:45 CNH Checked 财新中国服务业采购经理人指数 Checked
Actual
51.8
Forecast
53.6
Previous
54.1
03:45 CNH Checked Checked
Actual
51.7
Forecast
Previous
51.3
06:30 AUD Important 澳大利亚储备银行利率的决策 Important
Actual
4.1%
Forecast
4.1%
Previous
4.1%
06:30 AUD Checked Event 澳大利亚储备银行官报告 Checked Event
07:00 SGD Important Important
Actual
0.6%
Forecast
Previous
-0.8%
07:00 SGD New New
Actual
1.1%
Forecast
Previous
1%
09:00 EUR Checked Checked
Actual
1.5%
Forecast
1.5%
Previous
1.5%
09:15 EUR Checked Markit服务PMI Checked
Actual
49.3
Forecast
51.5
Previous
52.8

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Economic calendar by MarketCheese



MARKET CONDITION

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Symbol Bid Chng. null 1.26769 +0.05% null 0.64785 −0.08% null 0.95724 −0.03%
null 1.08443 +0.03% null 145.207 −0.22%


Market overview by MarketCheese




MARKET FORECASTS

Trading ideas, forecasts and results of analyses from traders and analysts from
all over the world in one place
Природный газ Sell
U.S. gas prices will continue to decrease
The natural gas rate in the U.S. continues to pull back down from last week's
high of 2.86. Today, its quotations test the support at 2.57. If it fails to
hold, sellers may immediately send the price to the next important level of 2.5.
Technical factors now don’t give unambiguous signals, so we have to focus
primarily on the news background.The main uncertainty factor in the gas market
is the situation in Australia. Today is the last round of negotiations between
Chevron and trade union alliances of two of its enterprises before the planned
strike. If no agreement is reached, the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants will
start a shutdown from tomorrow and a full strike for two weeks from September
14.Initially, this situation sharply increased volatility in the gas markets and
made the traders fear prolonged outages and supply disruptions. However, the gas
quotations have returned to the initial positions now. The high volume of gas
reserves in the U.S., Europe and Asia has allayed most investors' concerns about
the probable supply shortage.Many LNG producers want to delay fuel supplies
until mid or even late fall, seeing the prices return to average summer levels.
Thus, gas with delivery in November is now traded at European exchanges at more
than 30% higher compared to October contracts. The meteorologists' forecast,
predicting moderately warm weather until mid-October, also influences this. So,
the postponement of the cargo arrival date for several weeks ahead may bring
substantial additional profit to the U.S. LNG suppliers.It can be said that gas
consumers in the world's major markets are no longer afraid of a sharp decrease
in supply. Therefore, the gas demand is at risk of remaining low until the
heating season begins. This situation may stimulate a decline in U.S. gas
quotations to 2.5.The following trading strategy might be suggested:Sell natural
gas at the current price. Take profit — 2.5. Stop-loss — 2.65.Also, traders can
use Trailing stop instead of fixed Stop-loss at their disposal. 
AntonVolkov

EURUSD Sell
There is still room for EURUSD to reach the nearest support level
The EURUSD currency pair continues to move within the downtrend from the summer
high of 1.127. The upward rebound attempt made by the bulls at the end of August
quickly came to naught. Technical indicators are gradually moving into oversold
condition, but there are still no signals for a reversal. It is unlikely that
the euro buyers will be able to seize the initiative before the EURUSD pair
tests the lows of May-June near 1.067. Recently the fall of the euro against the
dollar accelerated due to the publication of data on business activity in the US
service sector. According to ISM estimates, the services PMI rose from 52.7 to
54.5. These figures not only significantly exceeded the expectations of analysts
(the forecast assumed a decline to 52.5), but also correspond to the maximum
level of business activity since February. In turn, the state of the European
economy continues to deteriorate. Retail sales in August started to decline
(-0.2%) after July's positive value of 0.2%. The situation is additionally
aggravated by today's statistics on GDP of the EU countries. According to the
final estimate, the European economy grew by only 0.1% in Q2 2023, while the
initial data painted a more positive picture with growth by 0.3%. Against this
news backdrop, ECB officials are increasingly questioning the need for a new
interest rate hike at the September 14 meeting. Traders estimate that the
probability of further monetary policy tightening has fallen to 30%.
Representatives of the central banks of France, Germany and Portugal believe a
rate hike in October or December is possible, and are preparing to vote for a
pause next week. The ECB's indecisiveness provides EURUSD with an opportunity to
maintain a medium-term downtrend. The obvious target for the currency market
participants now is the movement of EURUSD to the level of 1.067. Reaching this
mark will be a good opportunity for profit taking and at least a small upward
rebound. Fundamental factors are not enough for a more significant rise in the
euro against the dollar now. The following trading strategy can be
suggested: Sell EURUSD at the current price. Take profit — 1.067. Stop loss —
1.077.Traders can also use a Trailing stop instead of a fixed Stop loss at their
discretion.
AntonVolkov

Золото Buy
Gold price is under pressure, but things could change
Gold traded near a one-week low on Thursday after five consecutive sessions of
declines. At the same time the dollar is holding near highs since mid-March as
new data yesterday showed unexpected growth in the US services sector in August.
This indicates a continued inflationary pressure. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
President Susan Collins said Wednesday that while there are signs of progress in
cooling inflation, now is a time for the central bank to proceed carefully when
it comes to its next monetary policy steps. Higher US interest rates increase
the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest
income. Meanwhile, European Central Bank board members have warned investors of
a possible rate hike next week. But at the same time, governor Andrew Bailey
noted on Wednesday that the central bank is "much nearer" to ending its run of
interest rates increases. Meanwhile, policymakers expect China's economic growth
to slow. It may be even more pronounced than it was previously predicted. This
is due to the country's transition from an infrastructure investment economy to
a consumer economy. This process is considered complex. A combination of
fundamental factors reduces the attractiveness of the yellow metal. In August,
investors withdrew funds from gold ETFs for the third month in a row. According
to the World Gold Council (WGC), the liquidity outflow amounted to $2.9 billion,
which corresponds to 46 tons of the precious metal. The gold price on the daily
timeframe chart shows the formation of a broad correction. Macroeconomic factors
of the current week have already been taken into account by market participants,
so the multidirectional movement of the precious metal price may be seen again
in the near future. In terms of wave analysis, the price is forming the second
descending wave on the H4 timeframe. The Stochastic Oscillator moving indicators
(standard values) have entered the oversold zone, which signals the possibility
of price increase. This may create conditions for a change in the current trend
and the beginning of the third upward wave. Signal:GOLD’s short-term outlook is
to buy.  The target is at the level of 1965.00.Part of the profit should be
fixed near the level of 1935.00.A Stop-loss should be placed near the level of
1885.00. The bullish trend is of a short-term nature, so it is suggested to
limit the trading volume to no more than 2% of your capital.
Elena_Dorokhina

BTCUSD Buy
Bitcoin consolidates waiting for news from U.S. regulator
BTCUSD quotations have been consolidating near ascending channel support as
investors wait for disputable issues between the crypto asset manager and the
regulatory agency to be resolved. Grayscale Investments urged the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to expedite approval of its proposed
exchange-traded fund that would track bitcoin, following the court victory of
the crypto asset manager over the agency.A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court
of Appeals District of Columbia Circuit in Washington, D.C., ruled last week
that the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale's proposed bitcoin-ETF without
explanation. The situation has driven up the price of the major cryptocurrency
by nearly 7%.The ruling requires the SEC to review Grayscale's application,
though the agency still has time to appeal the court's decision. Last week, the
Commission said it was ready to review the decision.A spot bitcoin-ETF will give
investors access to the world's largest cryptocurrency without having to own it.
The SEC rejected all applications for spot bitcoin ETFs, responding that the
applicants hadn’t demonstrated the ability to protect investors from market
manipulation.However, the agency approved bitcoin futures ETFs based on a market
surveillance arrangement with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where the
majority of trading in cryptocurrency futures takes place. Grayscale argued that
the same structure should suit its spot ETF because both products depend on the
underlying value of bitcoin.The Court of Appeals ruled that the SEC arbitrarily
denied Grayscale's petition because it failed to explain how the two
arrangements differed.If the SEC quickly approves a bitcoin-ETF, as a crypto
asset manager has urged, it could attract more institutional investment in
digital currencies and create additional demand for bitcoin.BTCUSD quotations
are corrected in a broad upward corridor on the D1 timeframe. Fundamental
factors may create conditions for a price pullback from the channel support
toward trend resistance.Signal:Short-term prospects for BTCUSD are buying.Target
is at the level of 30,240.Part of the profit should be fixed around the level of
28,100.Stop-loss is around the level of 23,850.The bullish trend is short-term,
so choose a trading volume of no more than 2% of your balance.
Elena_Dorokhina
1
Серебро Buy
Silver may continue to grow in near future
The price of silver is decreasing for the fourth day in a row after reaching a
month high. Earlier, the price spike occurred against the background of the
dollar depreciation and rumors about the change of monetary policy. On Friday,
there was an increase in Treasury bond yields. It was largely influenced by the
latest data on employment in the United States. The unemployment rate in August
amounted to 3.8%. This amount is more than 3.5% in July and is the highest since
February 2022.  Traders mostly expect additional signals concerning the state of
the U.S. economy ahead of the scheduled Fed meeting this month.According to the
FedWatch tool, the likelihood of monetary policy remaining unchanged in
September is 93%.The future policy of various central banks also affects the
price of silver.Financial regulators of developed and emerging markets reduced
the pace and amount of interest rate hikes in August due to diverging growth
prospects and inflation risks, complicating the outlook for the
future.Meanwhile, investor sentiment in the Eurozone was worse than expected in
early September. According to Monday's survey, German economic weakness remains
the main concern in the region.On Monday, Goushi Kataoka, a former member of the
Japanese regulator's board of directors, said that the Bank of Japan may refuse
the loose monetary policy only after it reaches a sustainable inflation target
of 2%.The level of interest rates, economic conditions, and the level of
uncertainty in global markets strongly influenced demand for risk-free assets
such as gold and silver.The silver rate demonstrates the corrective growth in
the D1 timeframe.According to wave analysis, the price forms the second
descending wave in the H4 timeframe. The moving indicators of the Stochastic
Oscillator (standard values) entered the oversold zone, which indicates the
likelihood of price growth. That may create conditions for the trend reversal
and the beginning of the third upward wave.Signal:Short-term prospects for
silver are buying.Target is at the level of 26,400.Part of the profit should be
fixed around the level of 24,850.Stop-loss is around the level of 22,450.The
bullish trend is short-term, so choose a trading volume of no more 
Elena_Dorokhina
1
AUDCAD Sell
Reserve Bank of Australia interrupts the growth of AUDCAD
The AUDCAD pair continued its upward rebound from the annual low of 0.862, as
was expected in the previous forecast. Then the quotations tried to break above
the 0.88 level several times, but the growth momentum was always stopped. Today,
we see the strongest price drop of AUDCAD for the last month anyway. Now, the
testing of the 0.88 is off the agenda, and a retracement of the mid-August
bottom is more likely. The reason for the collapse of the Australian dollar was
today's meeting of the country's central bank. The Reserve Bank of Australia
(RBA) didn’t change the key rate for the third time in a row, leaving it at
4.1%. RBA Governor Philip Lowe, for whom the meeting was the last in his current
position, expressed confidence in the normalization of inflation rates by the
end of 2025.Market participants estimate the likelihood of another RBA key rate
hike at only 30% before the end of the year. We see that the cycle of monetary
policy tightening in Australia is coming to an end. It seems that the current
rate level of 4.1% will remain at its peak, and buyers of the Australian dollar
aren’t happy about it. Now, American and Canadian bonds can provide 5% or even
bigger yields, so the Australian currency is unlikely to be very popular.Also,
the trading situation in Australia and Canada is favorable for a further fall of
AUDCAD. Oil prices, the main export commodity of Canada, have risen to highs
since the beginning of the year. At the same time, China, a key trading partner
of Australia, is gripped by the crisis in the real estate sector. Lower demand
in China hurts the quotations of major Australian export commodities, such as
iron ore and coal.Currently, the most likely scenario of AUDCAD quotations
movement is the return to the annual low of 0.862. If the current situation in
the financial markets persists, the bears may reach this target in just a few
days.The following trading strategy might be suggested:Sell AUDCAD in the range
of 0.87 – 0.875. Take profit 1 — 0.866. Take profit 2 — 0.863. Stop-loss —
0.88.Also, traders can use Trailing stop instead of fixed Stop-loss at their
disposal. 
AntonVolkov

Нефть Brent Buy
Oil prices start September by testing summer highs
Brent oil prices recovered from most of the mid-month losses by the end of
August. Yesterday, the price came close to the mark of 87 dollars per barrel.
Today, the price is trying to gain a foothold above this level. The nearest
growth target for the oil quotes is the summer maximum, set on August 10, just
above the mark 88. A combination of fundamental factors suggests a high
probability of such a development.The U.S. oil reserves continue shrinking. They
declined by 10.6 million barrels over the previous week and by more than 34
million barrels since mid-July. The U.S. crude stockpiles are now only 1 million
barrels above the 10-year seasonal average, while a month ago the surplus
reached 22 million barrels.Statistics on Purchasing Managers' Index of China
could spoil the bullish mood of oil market participants. The indicator remains
in the contraction zone, although the manufacturing PMI showed a slight
improvement — from 49.3 to 49.7 points. The most important thing is that oil
imports could have rebounded from July's heavy decline. According to preliminary
data from Refinitiv, China bought 11.72 million bpd of oil last month. This is
13.5% more than in July.The main intrigue of the next week is the decision of
Saudi Arabia and Russia about the volumes of oil production and supplies for
October. According to analysts' expectations, Saudi Arabia will extend its
voluntary cut in oil production by 1 million barrels per day for another month.
As Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, Russia has already agreed its
level of oil production and exports for October with other OPEC+ countries.
Maintaining the restrictions will support oil quotations.The RSI indicator has
recently turned upward and is still far from the overbought zone. So, from a
technical point of view, there are no big obstacles for the continuation of
Brent price growth. The short-term target is the level of 88. The following
trading strategy might be suggested:Buy Brent oil near the level of 87. Take
profit 1 – 87.5. Take profit 2 – 88. Stop loss – 86.
AntonVolkov

USDCAD Buy
USDCAD is in a narrow channel
The dollar is strengthening on Monday against major currencies. The USDCAD
currency pair price is approaching the one-month high set at the previous
session. This is happening against the background of the US labor market
indicators release. The data released on Friday showed an accelerated growth in
the number of jobs in the US in August. At the same time, the unemployment rate
jumped to 3.8% and wage growth slowed. These indicators suggest that conditions
for easing monetary policy this month are in place. The full impact of the US
Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes has still not been completely transmitted
to the real economy, a former vice chairman of the central bank said on
Friday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a 93% chance of the
central bank keeping rates unchanged at its September meeting. The latest
economic data show a moderate decline in US inflation. The figures indicate a
slowdown in the US economy, but it is not precipitous. This data reinforces
market participants' belief that there could be a gradual slowdown without a
sharp downturn. Investors' attention this week will be focused on a number of
speeches of Fed representatives. It may hint at the future path of monetary
policy at its next meeting on Sept. 19–20. In addition, the Bank of Canada will
announce an interest rate decision this week. According to most Reuters
economists, the Canadian regulator is expected to leave its key interest rate at
5.00% at its Sept. 6 meeting and maintain that level until at least the end of
March 2024. This could lower the value of the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD
currency pair is forming a narrow correction on the H4 timeframe. In terms of
wave analysis, the price is forming the second descending wave on the M30
timeframe. Strong news background of the middle of the week may cause a change
of trend and the transition of the second wave into the third ascending
wave. Signal:The short-term outlook for the USDCAD is to buy. The target is at
the level of 1.3670.Part of the profit should be fixed near the level of
1.3610.A Stop-loss should be placed near the level of 1.3555. The bullish trend
is of a short-term nature, so it is suggested to limit the trading volume to no
more than 2% of your capital.
Elena_Dorokhina

GBPUSD Sell
GBPUSD will return to the initial positions after attempt to rebound
Last week, the GBPUSD pair attempted to rebound from the two-month low of 1.255.
The price almost reached 1.275 before the bears seized the initiative and
neutralized most of the quotations' growth. On Monday, there was another attempt
to develop the upward movement of GBPUSD, but the outcome may be the same.The
U.S. labor market statistics for August, released on Friday, were mixed.
Unemployment level increased more than expected (3.8% vs. 3.5%), while the
number of new jobs decreased below 200 000 for the 3rd month in a row. At first
glance, such figures shouldn’t have caused a significant strengthening of the
dollar, but this was the result of last week's trading on the currency market.It
seems that even considering the weakening of the U.S. labor market, traders
still consider the American currency a more reliable asset compared to the
pound. The data on business activity in the British manufacturing sector also
contributed to this opinion. The final result of 43 points looks satisfactory
compared to the preliminary estimate (42.5). However, it would be the minimum
since May 2020 in any case. Moreover, several PMI indicators are below the key
mark of 50 points for more than a year.Huw Pill, Chief Economist of the Bank of
England, tried to help the pound a little. He confirmed the British regulator's
intention to continue the interest rate hike cycle until core inflation heads
towards the 2% target. However, these statements didn’t affect the pound
exchange rate. Investors become more concerned about the negative influence of
high rates on the UK economy.The nearest target for pound sellers and dollar
buyers is the level of 1.255. There is no oversold condition on technical
indicators. There are no significant obstacles for the GBPUSD quotes to decline
from this point of viewThe following trading strategy might be suggested:Sell
GBPUSD at the current price. Take profit — 1.255. Stop-loss — 1.275. Also,
traders can use Trailing stop instead of fixed Stop-loss at their disposal. 
AntonVolkov

Природный газ Sell
U.S. gas market approaches low demand season
Natural gas prices in the U.S. are still struggling to determine the main trend
direction. After a corrective pullback from the August highs, the price is
consolidating in a flat trend, waiting for strong drivers of growth or decline.
The news background of the last few days seems to be in favor of another price
downward momentum to the area of 2.58.The risk of a sharp drop in LNG supplies
from Australia has declined. Woodside has managed to reach an agreement with the
labor union at its North West Shelf plant to avert a strike. At the same time,
employees of Chevron plants announced their willingness to strike on September 7
if an agreement on improved wage conditions is not reached by August 31. Even
so, the potential LNG production decline will be halved compared to earlier
expectations.Meanwhile, the U.S. natural gas market is gradually approaching the
low demand season. The need for air conditioning will drop with the arrival of
fall weather, while heating systems will not be activated until mid-October at
best. According to Refinitiv's forecast, natural gas consumption in the U.S.
will fall from 104.1 to 102.8 billion cubic feet per day next week.The current
hurricane season may worsen the situation with gas demand. Thus, Tropical Storm
Idalia will hit the coast of Florida as early as today. According to analysts'
estimates, more than 1 million households and businesses will be de-energized
due to the hurricane. Consequently, electricity demand will decrease until
repairs are made. And this, in turn, will have a negative impact on gas
consumption in the electric power industry.The RSI indicator on the daily chart
has turned downward, increasing the probability of the downward price movement.
However, the oversold zone is still rather far, and technically the sell signal
looks reliable. The nearest target of the bears in the U.S. gas market might be
the 2.58 level.The following trading strategy may be offered:Sell gas for the
current price.  Take profit – 2.58. Stop loss – 2.73.Traders may also use the
Trailing stop instead of the fixed Stop loss at their discretion.
AntonVolkov

Нефть Brent Buy
Brent crude oil prices are correcting amid China's market stimulus measures
Brent oil prices stabilized amid the announcements of introducing measures to
boost the stock and property markets by the Chinese government. This helps to
offset concerns about increased supply and tighter monetary policy in the United
States and Europe.According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson
Hole, the central bank is likely to keep monetary policy unchanged at its
September meeting. As ING Groep NV strategist Warren Patterson, this could cause
oil prices to rise.Meanwhile, oil prices increased in Asian trading but then
lost momentum. China's decision to halve the tax on stock trading to support
markets temporarily raised fuel costs.Analysts are also waiting for the release
of the updated China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). According to
forecasts, the PMI will show an even more depressing state of the second largest
economy.Patterson believes that the news of China's economic stimulus provided
additional support for oil prices. However, in the short term, they are likely
to remain in the current range due to ongoing demand problems and increased
supply from Iran and Venezuela.The rally recorded at the beginning of the month
pushed oil prices to the highs of early 2023. The price increase was due to the
efforts of the leading OPEC+ producers (Saudi Arabia and Russia) to support oil
prices by reducing exports.The Brent oil chart shows the correction formation on
the H4 timeframe.In terms of wave analysis, the price is now in the formation of
the fifth ascending wave. The fifth wave followed the price breaking out of the
descending resistance of the last fourth correction wave.MACD indicator
(standard values) shows divergence. This gives a leading signal to change the
trend. The nearest resistance is at 86.75. Signal:The short-term outlook for
Brent oil suggests buying.The target is at the level of 89.30.Part of the profit
should be taken near 86.75.The Stop-loss is set at 80.40.Bullish trend has a
short-term character, so the trade volume should not be more than 2% of your
balance.
Elena_Dorokhina
1
EURUSD Buy
EURUSD is moving in corrective channel
The U.S. dollar is strengthening against major currencies on Friday again. This
is particularly evident in the EURUSD pair. The currency instrument shows a
strong downtrend after the European consumer statistics data release.Inflation
rates in 20 eurozone countries ceased to slow down in August. According to
Eurostat, the annual inflation rate amounted to 5.3% by the end of the summer.
Against July, prices for some goods in August showed a slight decrease, but
remained higher yer-on-year.The current data-rich week will conclude with the
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.According to Tim Waterer, Chief Market
Analyst at KCM Trade, the U.S. data were weak this week. If new Non-Farm
Payrolls figures show a decline, Treasury bond yields will continue their recent
fall.The U.S. labor sector report is due to be released at 12:30 GMT. According
to forecasts, the number of jobs in the non-farm sector should fall to 170,000
from the previous 187,000. Confirmation of these data may lead to a weaker U.S.
dollar.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic on
Thursday presented arguments against additional interest rate hikes by the
central bank. He said monetary policy is already tight enough to bring inflation
back to 2% within a reasonable amount of time.Additional reasoning in favor of
Fed monetary policy easing reduces interest in the U.S. currency.EURUSD quotes
are moving in a corrective channel on the D1 timeframe. In late August, the
price rebounded from trend support, sending the pair towards trend resistance.In
terms of wave analysis, the price is in the formation of the second descending
wave on the H1 timeframe. The strength of trend support on the daily timeframe
limits the pair's sales. Today's fundamental factors may create conditions for
the second wave's transition into the third ascending wave.Signal:The short-term
outlook for the EURUSD pair suggests buying.The target is at the level of
1.1000.Part of the profit should be taken near 1.0900.The Stop-loss is set at
1.0765.Bullish trend has a short-term character, so the trade volume should not
be more than 2% of your balance.
Elena_Dorokhina
1
EURUSD Buy
EURUSD rebound is not over yet
This week the EURUSD currency pair rebounded from a two-month low set below
1.08. During 3 days of strong growth, the price almost reached the level of
1.095, where the bulls' activity began to decline markedly. However, this does
not mean that the upward movement has already ended. After partial profit taking
by euro buyers, the EURUSD growth may well continue.Recently published
statistics on the U.S. economy had an extremely negative impact on the dollar.
The situation began to deteriorate on Tuesday, when the data on open positions
in American companies were reported. The figure fell below the 9 million level
for the first time since the spring of 2021. If the monthly report on Friday
confirms the cooling of the U.S. labor market, the dollar may weaken even
further.But the statistics on open positions was not the only reason for selling
of the American currency. Yesterday the EURUSD rebound was supported by the
revised figures on the U.S. GDP growth for the 2nd quarter. According to the
second estimate, the economy increased by 2.1%, which turned out to be
significantly worse than the initial rate of 2.4%. The chances for the end of
the Fed's rate hike cycle are becoming more likely.Meanwhile, the ECB will
probably have to tighten monetary policy at least one more time. Preliminary
statistics on EU inflation for August showed that the price growth rate remained
at July's level of 5.3% (a decline to 5.1% was expected). Core inflation matched
the forecast of a slowdown from 5.5% to 5.3%, but this is unlikely to have
pleased the European regulator's officials. The Fed officials are now much
closer to the 2% price growth target, so the likelihood of rate hikes by the ECB
in September is rather high.The RSI indicator reversed from the oversold zone
and confirms a signal to buy EURUSD. The nearest target for euro buyers is the
1.095 level, which was not reached yesterday.The following trading strategy may
be offered:Buy EURUSD for the current price. Take profit – 1.095. Stop loss –
1.08.Traders may also use the Trailing stop instead of the fixed Stop loss at
their discretion.
AntonVolkov

AUDCAD Buy
The AUDCAD pair has changed its direction
On Thursday, the AUDCAD pair strengthened after the release of stronger national
economic data and encouraging news from China.China's Purchasing Managers' Index
(PMI) for August was above expectations. Furthermore, the National Bank of China
promised to provide additional support to businesses and real estate
developers.In Australia, corporate investment rose by 2.8% in the second
quarter, compared to the first one, and reached its highest level since late
2015.Next week’s data is expected to show that Australia's economic growth
slowed to 2% in the second quarter. This is due to a reduction in consumer
spending amid high inflation and rising borrowing costs.This slowdown remains
the main reason why the market believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will
keep its key interest rate at 4.1% at its meeting on September 5th.On Tuesday,
the Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock warned that an
additional interest rate hike may be needed to curb inflation. Nevertheless, the
bank's management is carefully analyzing the data to make decisions on a monthly
basis.In September, Bullock will take over as a Chairman of the Central Bank.
According to her, fighting high inflation in Australia will be her main task.At
the same time, according to most Reuters economists, the Bank of Canada is
expected to keep its key interest rate at 5.00% at its meeting on September 6th
and remain at that level until at least the end of March 2024.The Bank of Canada
is aiming to keep inflation at 2%. However, the consumer price index(CPI) rose
at a faster pace in July, reaching 3.3%. High inflation could have a negative
impact on the Canadian dollar.The AUDCAD currency pair has breached the
downtrend on the H4 timeframe.In terms of wave analysis, the price is in the
formation of the third upward wave on the H2 timeframe. The top of the first
wave at 0.8770 has already been broken. The upward movement may intensify in the
near term.Signal:The short-term outlook for AUDCAD is to buy.The target is at
the level of 0.8890.Part of the profit should be fixed around the level of
0.8820.Stop-loss is placed at 0.8695. The bullish trend is short-lived, so
choose a trading volume of no more than 2% of your balance. 
Elena_Dorokhina

BTCUSD Buy
Bitcoin rises after positive news
On Thursday, the Bitcoin rate rose sharply by more than 7% and reached its peak
at $28,140. A similar movement was also seen in most other cryptocurrencies that
followed the market leader.A sharp leap upward in the price of the first
cryptocurrency has led to a mass liquidation of traders' margin positions on
crypto exchanges. According to the Coinglass analytical platform, short
positions worth more than 80 million dollars were closed in just one hour after
the growth had started.The cryptocurrency market reacted to news of a court
decision on the lawsuit filed by Grayscale, a company owned by entrepreneur
Barry Silbert, against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The
suit was filed by Grayscale in October 2021, when the regulator again refused to
allow their Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund to become a full-fledged
exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Bitcoin.The company's court victory might be a
signal for the approval of other Bitcoin-ETFs, including a bid by financial
giant BlackRock. The first decision on that request is expected to be made this
Friday.Another growth driver of the main cryptocurrency was the publication of
poor data on open job vacancies in the U.S. and consumer confidence index. These
indicators cooled expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal
Reserve (Fed) this year.The number of open jobs in the U.S. fell to its lowest
level in two and a half years in July. This shows a gradual slowdown in the
labor market.Meanwhile, after two consecutive months of rising, the U.S.
consumer confidence in August fell more sharply than expected due to renew
inflationary concerns.This lowered the value of the U.S. dollar and supported a
variety of investment assets.The BTCUSD quotes are correcting in a wide
ascending corridor on the D1 timeframe. The price pullback from the channel
support directs the Bitcoin rate towards the trend resistance. Signal:The
short-term prospects for BTCUSD are to buy.The target is at the level of 31
000.Part of the profit should be fixed around the level of 29 180.Stop-loss is
placed at 24 550. The bullish trend is short-lived, so choose a trading volume
of no more than 2% of your balance.
Elena_Dorokhina
1
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