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Main content
PORTFOLIO PLAYBOOK
MAY 2023 MARKET OUTLOOK
Optimize your portfolios with our monthly Portfolio Playbook. We remain
defensive in May despite the recent strength in corporate earnings,
underweighting portfolio risk and overweighting fixed income relative to
equities.
Asset allocations
Latest market outlook
* Latest market outlook
* Asset allocations
* Additional resources
GLOBAL GROWTH TO DETERIORATE
Global investor risk appetite has been waning as investors contemplate a further
deterioration in economic activity and assess ongoing regional bank challenges.
Higher quality bonds have been outperforming stocks¹ while narrow equity market
leadership casts doubt on a potential near-term market advance. Peak inflation
and the end of policy tightening should ultimately usher in a conducive backdrop
for risk-taking, but the near-term setup still warrants caution.
Where do we go from here?
Global growth has been resilient, but the odds of it deteriorating are rising.
Monetary policy typically operates with a lag suggesting the full effects of
policy tightening have yet to be felt in the economy. The regional bank
challenges will also likely lead to further tightening in lending — the
equivalent of further rate hikes on a slowing economy — even as the US Federal
Reserve (Fed) signals the end of its tightening. Not surprisingly, global
investor risk appetite remains in a decelerating trend, indicating weaker growth
ahead.
1. Base case
2. Conditions improve
3. Conditions worsen
* Base case
ECONOMIC CYCLE
* Growth has been resilient, but the odds of a deceleration remain elevated.
* Long and variable lags of monetary policy are expected to slow the
economy.
* Regional bank challenges are likely to further exacerbate tightening in
lending.
MARKET SENTIMENT
* Another round of regional US bank failures has reignited market
participants’ fears.
* Defensive sentiment pointing to future weakness in resilient corporate
earnings.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
* Inflation is likely to continue to moderate as the economy slows.
* Fed is likely at the end of the rate hiking cycle.
* Conditions improve
ECONOMIC CYCLE
* Fed navigates a soft landing (rare and unlikely).
* Recession avoided, growth and inflation normalize.
MARKET SENTIMENT
* Risk-on sentiment emerges as investors look ahead to a reinvigorated
economy.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
* Inflation returns to the Fed’s “comfort zone.”
* More stable rate environment.
* Conditions worsen
ECONOMIC CYCLE
* Fed tightening reduces growth but doesn’t bring inflation down.
* Fed tightens conditions and restricts growth by more than market expects.
* Severe prolonged recession.
MARKET SENTIMENT
* Flight to quality as the economy deteriorates.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
* Tighter Fed policy lasting until inflation rate is closer to Fed’s comfort
level.
* Structurally higher inflation rate than 2% historical target.
Download the May 2023 Summary
ASSET ALLOCATIONS TO CONSIDER
The challenge for tactical investors is how to prepare for the expected and
anticipate the unexpected. The Invesco Investment Solutions team’s tactical
asset allocation framework is designed to do just that.
Our macro framework remains in a contraction regime of below-trend and
decelerating growth and a more defensive posture in portfolios. You can see our
portfolio positioning for the base case in our guidance below. We’ve provided
alternative positioning should market conditions change.
1. Base case
2. Conditions improve
3. Conditions Worsen
* Base case
Peer Average
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Asset
What we favor
Sample Allocation
Peer Average
Sample Allocation
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
Related Products
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPLVFact Sheet
SPHDFact Sheet
US MOMENTUM
Equity
US MOMENTUM
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPMOFact Sheet
US QUALITY
Equity
US QUALITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPHQFact Sheet
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
15%
RELATED PRODUCTS
QQQMFact Sheet
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
10%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ACSTXFact Sheet
RSPFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
3%
RELATED PRODUCTS
VSCAXFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
3%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OEGAXFact Sheet
QQQJFact Sheet
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
12%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
11%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OIDAXFact Sheet
OIGAXFact Sheet
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
1%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ODMAXFact Sheet
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
29%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
43%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OPIGXFact Sheet
GTOFact Sheet
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
8%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
2%
RELATED PRODUCTS
BulletShares ETFs
ORNAXFact Sheet
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
0%
RELATED PRODUCTS
AFRAXFact Sheet
BKLNFact Sheet
ABOUT OUR ALLOCATIONS
* Our global tactical asset allocation framework dynamically adjusts
exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, creating
multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic
environment. Our allocations overweight asset classes that historically
outperformed in a given economic regime and layer on factors that have
tended to perform well.
If you are looking to incorporate private alternatives into your
portfolios, we have provided a sample portfolio with a 7% allocation,
regardless of regime. We suggest you consider using 4% from your equity
allocation and 3% from your fixed income allocation. Explore Invesco Real
Estate for investment considerations.
*The peer average is informed by more than 1,300 advisor portfolios that
fall into our “moderate” risk category and were reviewed by our Portfolio
Advisory team since 2020
* Conditions improve
Peer Average
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Asset
What we favor
Sample Allocation
Peer Average
Sample Allocation
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
Related Products
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
neutral
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
0%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPLVFact Sheet
SPHDFact Sheet
US MOMENTUM
Equity
US MOMENTUM
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
neutral
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
0%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPMOFact Sheet
US QUALITY
Equity
US QUALITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
neutral
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
0%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPHQFact Sheet
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
14%
RELATED PRODUCTS
QQQMFact Sheet
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
neutral
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
18%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ACSTXFact Sheet
RSPFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
10.5%
RELATED PRODUCTS
VSCAXFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
neutral
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4.5%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OEGAXFact Sheet
QQQJFact Sheet
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
12%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
13%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OIDAXFact Sheet
OIGAXFact Sheet
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
5%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ODMAXFact Sheet
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
29%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
16%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OPIGXFact Sheet
GTOFact Sheet
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
8%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
14%
RELATED PRODUCTS
BulletShares ETFs
ORNAXFact Sheet
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
5%
RELATED PRODUCTS
AFRAXFact Sheet
BKLNFact Sheet
ABOUT OUR ALLOCATIONS
* Our global tactical asset allocation framework dynamically adjusts
exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, creating
multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic
environment. Our allocations overweight asset classes that historically
outperformed in a given economic regime and layer on factors that have
tended to perform well.
If you are looking to incorporate private alternatives into your
portfolios, we have provided a sample portfolio with a 7% allocation,
regardless of regime. We suggest using 4% from your equity allocation and
3% from your fixed income allocation. Explore Invesco Real Estate for
investment considerations.
* Conditions Worsen
Peer Average
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
1%
Equity
1%
Fixed Income
Asset
What we favor
Sample Allocation
Peer Average
Sample Allocation
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
Related Products
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
US LOW VOLATILITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPLVFact Sheet
SPHDFact Sheet
US MOMENTUM
Equity
US MOMENTUM
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPMOFact Sheet
US QUALITY
Equity
US QUALITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
0%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
4%
RELATED PRODUCTS
SPHQFact Sheet
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
US LARGE GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
15%
RELATED PRODUCTS
QQQMFact Sheet
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
US LARGE VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
18%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
10%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ACSTXFact Sheet
RSPFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
US SMALL/MID VALUE
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
3%
RELATED PRODUCTS
VSCAXFact Sheet
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
US SMALL/MID GROWTH
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
4.5%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
3%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OEGAXFact Sheet
QQQJFact Sheet
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
12%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
11%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OIDAXFact Sheet
OIGAXFact Sheet
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY
Equity
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
1%
RELATED PRODUCTS
ODMAXFact Sheet
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
US CORE FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
overweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
29%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
43%
RELATED PRODUCTS
OPIGXFact Sheet
GTOFact Sheet
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
US HIGH YIELD
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
8%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
2%
RELATED PRODUCTS
BulletShares ETFs
ORNAXFact Sheet
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
US BANK LOANS
Fixed Income
WHAT WE FAVOR
underweight
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Peer Average
3%
SAMPLE ALLOCATION
Strategic + Tactical Overlay
0%
RELATED PRODUCTS
AFRAXFact Sheet
BKLNFact Sheet
ABOUT OUR ALLOCATIONS
* Our global tactical asset allocation framework dynamically adjusts
exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, creating
multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic
environment. Our allocations overweight asset classes that historically
outperformed in a given economic regime and layer on factors that have
tended to perform well.
If you are looking to incorporate private alternatives into your
portfolios, we have provided a sample portfolio with a 7% allocation,
regardless of regime. We suggest using 4% from your equity allocation and
3% from your fixed income allocation. Explore Invesco Real Estate for
investment considerations.
TOTAL CX RESOURCES
Use our Invesco Total CX platform — Total Client Experienceᵀᴹ — to get the
latest information on the markets, economy, and investing that you and your
clients need. Here’s this month’s highlights.
Optimize your portfolios
Products and guidance from our experts on portfolio construction and risk
management.
Explore resources:
2023 Annual Investment Outlook
Capital market assumptions
Tactical asset allocation
Investment insights
Connect with your clients
Engaging investing and market content your clients want, plus how to use it with
them.
Explore resources:
Compelling wealth management conversations
Market and economic insights
Global policy outlook
Enhance your business
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FOOTNOTES
* 1
Source: Bloomberg, L.P. From February 15, 2023, to April 30, 2023, the
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index returned 2.33%, while the S&P 500 Index
returned 0.85%. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index
considered representative of the US investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.
The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US
stock market. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.
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NA2903245
Credit spread is the difference in yield between bonds of similar maturity but
with different credit quality.
Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal)
of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is
expressed as a number of years.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is a monetary policy used by central banks to
normalize balance sheets.
The terminal rate is the anticipated level that the federal funds rate will
reach before the Federal Reserve stops its tightening policy. The federal funds
rate is the rate at which banks lend balances to each other overnight.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product
for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional
before making any investment decisions.
All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.
Some products are offered through affiliates of Invesco Distributors, Inc.
The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of Feb. 2023. These
comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of
broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results.
They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance
that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.
A contagion is the spread of an economic crisis from one market or region to
another and can occur at both a domestic or international level.
Tightening is a monetary policy used by central banks to normalize balance
sheets.
There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of
money. Index-based ETFs are not actively managed. Actively managed ETFs do not
necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Both
index-based and actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks,
including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. Ordinary
brokerage commissions apply. The Fund's return may not match the return of the
Index. The Fund is subject to certain other risks. Please see the current
prospectus for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment
in the Fund.
Growth stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in their earnings and can be
more volatile.
A value style of investing is subject to the risk that the valuations never
improve or that the returns will trail other styles of investing or the overall
stock markets.
Stocks of small and mid-sized companies tend to be more vulnerable to adverse
developments, may be more volatile, and may be illiquid or restricted as to
resale.
Fixed-income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the
effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that
bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may
be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its
instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer’s credit rating.
Alternative products typically hold more non-traditional investments and employ
more complex trading strategies, including hedging and leveraging through
derivatives, short selling and opportunistic strategies that change with market
conditions. Investors considering alternatives should be aware of their unique
characteristics and additional risks from the strategies they use. Like all
investments, performance will fluctuate. You can lose money.
The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging
market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and
economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.
Junk bonds involve a greater risk of default or price changes due to changes in
the issuer’s credit quality. The values of junk bonds fluctuate more than those
of high quality bonds and can decline significantly over short time periods.
In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities
specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political
conditions.
High yield bonds, or "junk bonds," involve a greater risk of default or price
changes due to changes in the issuer’s credit quality. The values of junk bonds
fluctuate more than those of high quality bonds and can decline significantly
over short time periods.
Municipal securities are subject to the risk that legislative or economic
conditions could affect an issuer’s ability to make payments of principal and/
or interest.
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