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CAPITAL VIEWS


WHAT COULD GO WRONG? THE RISKS TO OUR 2022 CALLS

Posted 8 hours ago by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the
year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients,
however, centred on the risks to our forecasts and where we might be wrong. 
This can be difficult terrain for economists. Global uncertainties mean there
are … Continue reading “What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls”




FIVE KEY READS FROM 2021

Posted 4 weeks ago by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent
the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being
influenced by the pandemic. But we haven’t been focused exclusively on these
immediate forces, and I’d like to take this opportunity to make available to …
Continue reading “Five key reads from 2021”




THE PANDEMIC MAY SEND JAPAN’S LABOUR FORCE BACK TO THE FUTURE

Posted 1 month ago by David Wilder | Category : Chart In Focus.

Japan’s labour force participation rate has risen by around 8 million, or 12%,
since 2012, thanks largely to increased numbers of women and seniors entering
the workforce. But that trend hasn’t survived the pandemic and Marcel Thieliant,
the head of our Japan coverage, says persistent demographic headwinds will leave
the country by 2050 with a … Continue reading “The pandemic may send Japan’s
labour force back to the future”




2021’S 10 BIG STORIES – ACCORDING TO CAPITAL ECONOMICS

Posted 1 month ago by David Wilder | Category : Capital View.

The second year of the living with the pandemic has had its share of high and
low points for economies and markets. These are the top 10 stories of the year,
according to the Capital Economics team: China-US relations – Tensions continued
to rise in 2021 within the bilateral relationship, despite more conventional
leadership in … Continue reading “2021’s 10 big stories – according to Capital
Economics”




OUR HITS AND MISSES FOR 2021 – AND LESSONS FOR THE COMING YEAR

Posted 1 month ago by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their
predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of
this week. But before looking ahead, it’s useful to look back and see what we
got right – and wrong – in 2021.  Twelve months ago, we said that … Continue
reading “Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year”




VICKY REDWOOD ON LABOUR SHORTAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Posted 1 month ago by David Wilder | Category : Five Questions With....

Labour shortages in advanced economies are creating headaches for businesses and
policy makers. But there’s an argument that they end up spurring productivity,
says Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood in a new report. We asked Vicky about
the productivity growth outlook, and what it could mean for expectations for
monetary policy tightening.   Q: Vicky, global … Continue reading “Vicky Redwood
on labour shortages and productivity”




OMICRON AND INFLATION: THE SUPPLY-DEMAND FORCES THAT WILL DETERMINE PRICE
OUTCOMES

Posted 1 month ago by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often
since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain.
Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains uncertain and the full implications
will not start to become clear until we know more about the threat posed and –
crucially … Continue reading “Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces
that will determine price outcomes”




WHAT WOULD AN OMICRON LOCKDOWN MEAN FOR THE UK ECONOMY?

Posted 2 months ago by David Wilder | Category : Chart In Focus.

In providing a framework for thinking about how Omicron could impact the UK
economy and policy-making, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales explains how GDP isn’t
as far below pre-crisis levels as it was at the start of the January 2021
lockdown, implying there’s more room for it to fall in the event of another
lockdown. … Continue reading “What would an Omicron lockdown mean for the UK
economy?”




OMICRON’S STARK REMINDER THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY HINGES ON THE
PANDEMIC

Posted 2 months ago by Neil Shearing | Category : The Chief Economist's Note.

It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours
and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless
continue to struggle with the ramifications of its collapsed lira – and you can
read all our coverage on the crisis here – investor attention has suddenly …
Continue reading “Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery
hinges on the pandemic”




ANDREW KENNINGHAM ON THE EURO-ZONE’S FOURTH WAVE AND THE ECB

Posted 2 months ago by David Wilder | Category : Five Questions With....

New COVID-19 cases are surging in Europe with less than a month before the ECB’s
key 16th December meeting. We asked Andrew Kenningham how this new wave could
affect the Governing Council’s decision-making and the euro-zone economic
outlook. Andrew is our Chief Europe Economist. He has overall responsibility for
running our European economics service and … Continue reading “Andrew Kenningham
on the euro-zone’s fourth wave and the ECB”




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